UFC 84: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 84: Ill Will
Saturday, May 24th, 10 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Nevada
Weigh-in: Friday, May 23, 7 PM ET, live online


Nearly all the favorites on the main card cashed at last month's UFC, partly due to horrible matchmaking. This edition of the Ultimate Fighting Championship should be one of the best we've seen in awhile, and it will help clear up a lot of confusion in two weight classes. Two light heavyweight fights will separate the contenders in that division, and the Sherk vs. Penn main event is something the lightweight division has been anticipating for years. This is also the second consecutive card to feature 11 fights, up from the typical 9 or 10.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Bookmaker.com.

Christian "The Hungarian Nightmare" Wellisch (8-3-0) vs. Shane Carwin (8-0-0)
Current Odds: Wellisch +135; Carwin -165


Carwin is making his UFC debut after cutting through the competition at small promotions en route to an 8-0 record; none of those fights made it out of the first round. He has a solid wrestling background and should hold a decent weight advantage over his opponent. Wellisch last fought in September, handling Scott Junk by heel hook submission. Wellisch has not been particularly impressive, so I will lean towards the hot up-and-comer. Prediction: Carwin, 1st round TKO.

Jason Tan (5-2-0) vs. Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim (9-1-1)
Current Odds: Kim -300; Tan +240


Kim hasn't lost since his pro debut, and brings an impressive 5" height advantage into this bout. He's cut his teeth primarily in Japan's DEEP promotion and has extensive Judo experience. Prior to battling to a draw in his last fight, Kim finished his last five fights by KO or TKO. Tan had one prior run at UFC fame, falling to Marcus Davis via first-round KO at UFC 72 last June. Neither have much in their past performance to go on, so I'll lean with Tan in the large underdog role. Prediction: Tan, 3rd round TKO.

Jon Koppenhaver (5-1-0) vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida (9-2-0)
Current Odds: Koppenhaver +135; Yoshida -165


Yoshida comes to the UFC from Japan, where he recently won the first Cage Force welterweight tournament. He is a 4th degree judo black belt but has won the majority of his fights via KO or TKO. Koppenhaver entered the UFC as a TUF 6 replacement fighter, losing in the competition but gaining redemption in his defeat of Jared Rollins on the show's finale. Koppenhaver is well-rounded and should have the strength edge, causing me to lean his way in this fight. Prediction: Koppenhaver, 3rd round KO.

Rich "No Love" Clementi (31-12-1) vs. Terry Etim (10-1-0)
Current Odds: Clementi -205; Etim +165


Rich Clementi has certainly been keeping busy. He defeated Sam Stout at last month's UFC 83, bringing his win streak to five. Just a week after that fight, he was tapped to fill in for an injured Rob Emerson on this card. He has looked excellent, but although he has plenty of experience his competition has been below average. His ground game is great, and his fight against Stout demonstrated that he can stand and trade punches as well. His opponent, Terry Etim, has 10 years of youth and 4" of height on Clement, but is coming off his first loss, a decision at the hands of Gleison Tibau. Etim has an excellent submission game and good Muay Thai, and his reach should give him an advantage in standup. His 8 months off is somewhat of a concern, but Clementi is a bit overrated due to his recent streak, and Etim possesses the skills to pull off the upset. Prediction: Etim, 3rd round submission.

Rameau "The African Assassin" Sokoudjou (4-2-0) vs. Kazuhiro "Kaz" Nakamura (11-7-0)
Current Odds: Sokoudjou -255; Nakamura +205


Sokoudjou received a lot of hype after 2 consecutive 1st round KO's in PRIDE, one against Minotoro Nogueira as an overwhelming underdog. He fell in his UFC debut to highly-regarded Lyoto Machida back in December, and since has lost a lot of that public support. Nakamura is also coming off a loss to Machida in September, his second consecutive decision loss. He also tested positive for marijuana in that Machida bout. Kaz cut his teeth in PRIDE, but failed to step up against the toughest competition there. Both have strong backgrounds in judo and grappling, but the edge goes to Sokoudjou in stand-up. Sokoudjou is the likely winner, but I can't justify playing him at this price until we've seen some more of him in the Octagon. Prediction: Sokoudjou, 1st round TKO.

Ivan Salaverry (12-6-0) vs. Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares (7-1-0)
Current Odds: Salaverry -175; Palhares +145


Salaverry is 3-3 inside the Octagon, with his last fight occurring over a year ago. Consistency has been an issue, as he has only fought 3 times in the past 3 years, going 1-2 in that span. He is well-rounded, but his motivation here is questionable and he appears to be playing the gatekeeper role here against the up-and-comer. Palhares has fought exclusively in small Brazilian promotions, but has demonstrated an impressive submission game in his limited exposure. This fight will likely be spent on the ground, and I'll give the rookie the edge. Prediction: Palhares, 3rd round submission.

Thiago Silva (12-0-0) vs. Antonio "Samuray" Mendes (14-2-0)
Current Odds: Silva -650; Mendes +500


Silva is a strong striker, most recently defeating Houston Alexander by TKO. His 12-0 record is impressive, but he hasn't faced many quality opponents. Mendes has fought in Brazil and throughout Europe, but lacks wins over noteworthy fighters. This looks like a stepping-stone in Silva's rise through the UFC, though the line is a bit high to wager against an untested newcomer. Prediction: Silva, 1st round TKO.

Tito "Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (15-5-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (12-0-0)
Current Odds: Machida -225; Ortiz +185


Ortiz has fallen out of favor, due to his loss to Chuck Liddell followed by an uninspiring draw to Rashad Evans. Too many celebrity distractions have also hampered his UFC credentials, including his appearance on "Celebrity Apprentice". Nonetheless, Tito still possesses amazing talent, and don't overlook the fact that all his losses have come to top-notch competition. Machida is clearly one of the most talented up-and-comers in the UFC, and his unique karate-based style has presented some matchup problems for his opponents. However, Machida seems vulnerable to a solid ground game, Ortiz's specialty, and Tito's experience level and cardio is top-notch. If Ortiz takes this to the mat and focuses on setting up his patented ground-and-pound, he has a very solid chance here at generous odds. Look for him to keep this fight on the ground, even if he's forced to rely on "lay-and-pray" to edge out a decision win. Prediction: Ortiz, 3rd round TKO.

Wilson Gouveia (10-4-0) vs. Goran Reljic (7-0-0)
Current Odds: Gouveia -155; Reljic +125


You might remember Goran Reljic from "Trboulje 1 - Croatia vs Slovenia". Or not. Reljic is an unknown Croatian fighter who is undefeated, but has only fought in small European events. He will get his shot in the spotlight against Gouveia, who has won his last four since falling to Keith Jardine via decision back in the TUF 3 finale. Tough to predict this one without knowing more about Reljic, but I'll lean with the more experienced Gouveia. Prediction: Gouveia, 2nd round TKO.

Wanderlai "The Axe Murderer" Silva (31-8-1) vs. Keith "The Dean Of Mean" Jardine (13-3-1)
Current Odds: Silva -170; Jardine +140


If A beats B and B beats C, then common sense tells you A must beat C, at least when you're taking the SATs. Unfortunately logic like that rarely helps in picking fights. The Axe Murderer may be coming off three straight losses, but they were to elite-level fighters, including his last opponent, a resurgent Chuck Liddell, in a slugfest that showed Silva at least has the heart to withstand 3 rounds of punishment. There is some concern about his ability to bounce back, but he showed some flashes of greatness against Liddell and still has enough in the tank. Jardine has recent wins over contenders Forrest Griffin and an off-his-game Chuck Liddell, but has struggled at times, as shown by his losses to Bonnar and Alexander in the last 2 years. Silva is the much more experienced, though younger, fighter, and looks good as a mid-range favorite. Prediction: Silva, 3rd round TKO.

B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn (12-4-1) vs. Sean "Muscle Shark" Sherk (32-2-1)
Current Odds: Penn -265; Sherk +215


Sherk reigned atop the lightweight heap for what seems like an eternity, but that is primarily due to lack of solid competition in his weight class. There are also some major question marks concerning his extended layoff and the repercussions of his positive drug test. Were his early victories a consequence of being "juiced-up"? While he's vehemently denied the allegations, the results are there in black and white, and one has to wonder if steroids have played any part in his previous accomplishments. Penn, on the other hand, seems to be in top physical form as evidenced by his handling of Joe "Daddy" Stevenson. Penn has always had the talent, but often lacked motivation and discipline. With a newfound focus, and a more natural weight class, Penn is a definite force to be reckoned with. Sherk's only advantages lay in the strength and (possibly) cardio departments, and that may have potentially been neutralized by his doping issues. Penn's height advantage and experience against larger opponents erode that edge considerably. Penn's smart jiu-jitsu presents a very problematic match-up for the ground-and-pound Sherk. Prediction: Penn, 2nd round submission.

Picks (2008: 11-6 +5.85 units; Best Bets: 4-1, +3.00 units)
Terry Etim +165
Tito Ortiz +185 (Best Bet)
Wanderlai Silva -170
B.J. Penn -265


Opinions (2008: 14-8 +5.50 units)
Shane Carwin -165
Jason Tan +240
Jon Koppenhaver +135
Kaz Nakamura +205
Rousimar Palhares +145
Antonio Mendes +500
Wilson Gouveia -155


5-23-08
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-663.html

[Rogthedodger]

Great job in 2008 so far, Jay.....keep it rolling.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Thanks Jay...

I am big on Carwin...

Mid Level on Tito, Salaverry, and Silva.

Also have a play out on Penn by dec +900 and +1300.

[Oddessa]

I bet Reljic +265 and Carwin +100 so far...

Cant lay the price but think Thiago Silva should be -1100...

[Oddessa]

...hard to imagine Salavery getting beat by this guy. Not sure what advantages dog has over Ivan other than maybe Ivan being a bit of a shot/punchy fighter these days..

[Oddessa]

toss Tito Ortiz in there +190...

[Oddessa]

and Yoshida small -150

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Oddessa

toss Tito Ortiz in there +190...

I just hope he shows up. I think his head will be in it, but with him you just don't know nowadays

[Oddessa]

For what it's worth...jeff sher told me Tito trained his balls off for this fight because he wants to stick it in Dana's ass..

...Machida at 203.....imagine Tito will be 220 + 2mmrow night....

I just hope Tito gets a fair shake. He's a good guy.

[littleogre]

not saying i have a pick in the tito fight but keep in mind that he basically has to win by a sub or ko. Their is no way they let him walk away with a decesion.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Oddessa

I just hope Tito gets a fair shake. He's a good guy.

yea but he comes off as such a prick in public


plus, i never really forgave him for ducking liddell

but i do hope he wins, he's one of the guys that really made UFC what it is today


ogre, not sure i agree, i think if he can keep it mostly on the ground he can definitely outwork machida for a solid decision. If he just stays relentless with those elbows from the top he can definitely wear machida down, and he can definitely push the pace through the fight cardio-wise

[Oddessa]

cant see NSAC judges getting into personal shit..based on previous judging history in Nevada....if he holds him down and GNP 3 roudns... hard 2 not givem a dec...

[TheVig]

UFC weigh-in news;



by Dave Meltzer


Weigh-ins:

Shane Carwin (252) vs. Christian Wellisch (230)
Kim Dong Hyun (171) vs. Jason Tan (170)
Yoshiyuki Yoshida (170) vs. Jon Koppenhaver (170)
Terry Etim (155) vs. Rich Clementi (155)
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (204) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (206)
Ivan Salaverry (185) vs. Palhares (185)

Main card
Wilson Gouveia (205) vs. Goran Reljic (205)
Thiago Silva (205) vs. Antonio Mendes (203)
Tito Ortiz (205) vs. Lyoto Machida (203)
Wanderlei Silva (205) vs. Keith Jardine (205)
B.J. Penn (155) vs. Sean Sherk (155) for lightweight title

Notes: Ortiz got the biggest reaction, more cheers than boos. He was wearing a "Dana is my bitch" T-shirt that got a big reaction. No Dana White at yesterday's press conference, today's Ultimate Fighter media day or at the weigh-ins. Obviously something major is wrong.

The show sold out well in advance and they are doing a closed-circuit telecast at a 5,000-seat ballroom where they held the weigh-ins, which drew 4,500, one of the bigger weigh-in crowds.

Machida was booed, but not heavily. Sherk was booed unmercifully with loud "steroid" catcalls. If those people only knew. Besides Ortiz, the only superstar reactions were to Wanderlei Silva and Penn.

[TheVig]

I like this card, but im really more jacked up about the Pulver Vs Faber fight next week. Im more fired up for this fight then i have been for any other fight in a long time.

[drunkguy]

He was wearing a "Dana is my bitch" T-shirt

[clevfan]

Ultimate Fighting Championship 84, ‘Ill Will’

By Jeff Haney
LAS VEGAS SUN
Sat, May 24, 2008

1. An innocent man?

Sean Sherk sees tonight’s title fight as a big step in rebuilding his reputation among mixed martial arts fans after he tested positive for the anabolic steroid nandrolone at UFC 73 in July in Sacramento, where he beat Hermes Franca. Sherk has vehemently maintained his innocence and vowed never to fight in California again. In the buildup to tonight’s bout, his first since failing the urinalysis, Sherk dismissed Penn as “a lot of hype,” “overrated” and even “pudgy.” Sherk had his game face on at Thursday’s prefight news conference at MGM. “There’s been a lot of stuff said between us,” said Sherk, of Oak Grove, Minn. “It’s over. It’s time to fight. That’s it.”

2. Saved by fighting

B.J. Penn, of Hilo, Hawaii, became a two-division UFC champ when he beat Joe Stevenson at UFC 80 for the lightweight championship left open because of Sherk’s suspension by the California State Athletic Commission. “If it wasn’t for this sport, I’d be being a bum right now drinking a beer at the beach,” said Penn, who has held the UFC welterweight title. Penn instigated a vicious war of words with Sherk by suggesting Sherk had to “cheat” with steroids to win his belt. “Fighting is the most important thing in the world to me,” Penn said. “When someone else goes and perverts it, I can’t deal with it.”

3. One for the ages

UFC President Dana White has hyped the headliner, which pits a strong wrestler in Sherk against a top-notch striker in Penn, as one of the best MMA matches of the year. “This is a fight where whether you’re a hard-core fan or someone who just got interested in the UFC, people are pumped about this fight,” White said. “It’s an exciting, rare moment when you get to see two of the best fighters in the world face off and find out who the best is. This is what professional sports and what fighting is all about, when you’re able to make great fights like this ... It doesn’t suck when they hate each other, either.”

4. Farewell bout?

Thanks in part to a long-simmering personality conflict with White, Tito Ortiz (16-5-1) plans to make tonight’s light heavyweight showdown with Lyoto Machida (12-0) his last with the UFC before he pursues free agency. Ortiz, a 2-1 betting underdog, is coming off a draw with Rashad Evans and a loss to Chuck Liddell. White did not seem sorry to see Ortiz go, calling him an “idiot” and “one of the dumbest human beings I’ve ever met.” (For the record, Ortiz has characterized White as one of the dumbest people he has ever met, too. So there.) “I have no interest in being in the Tito Ortiz business anymore,” White said. “I put up with his (nonsense) when he was a good fighter. He’s not anymore. I’m done.”

5. Working class hero

Wanderlei Silva (31-8-1), one of the most exciting and accomplished MMA fighters in the sport’s history, acknowledged he feels extra pressure heading into his bout against Keith Jardine off three consecutive losses. Jardine is expected to enter the octagon as roughly a 3-2 underdog, but he pointed out he fought his way into the UFC’s elite by scoring upsets, including one against Liddell in September. “I’m a working-class guy with a working-class fan base,” said Jardine (13-4-1). “There’s not a lot of marketing behind me. I got here by winning fights I wasn’t supposed to win.”

Fight facts
Main event: Sean Sherk (35-2-1 mixed martial arts) vs. B.J. Penn (13-4-1)

At stake: UFC lightweight championship

Time/site: Today at the MGM Grand Garden Arena; doors open at 4:30 p.m.; first fight at 5:10 p.m.

Tickets: Sellout expected at $50-$650

Closed circuit: $50, MGM Grand Marquee Ballroom

TV: Pay-per-view, $44.95, 7 p.m.

Also on main card: Antonio Mendes vs. Thiago Silva, light heavyweights; Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida, light heavyweights; Goran Reljic vs. Wilson Gouveia, light heavyweights; Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva, light heavyweights

Preliminaries: Shane Carwin vs. Christian Wellisch, heavyweights; Dong Hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan, welterweights; Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Jon Koppenhaver, welterweights; Terry Etim vs. Rich Clementi, lightweights; Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Sokoudjou, light heavyweights; Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan Salaverry, middleweights

Main event betting line: Penn minus-250; Sherk plus-200

[drunkguy]

I have to try to sneak away from a bachelor party tonight to watch this

[littleogre]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

yea but he comes off as such a prick in public


plus, i never really forgave him for ducking liddell

but i do hope he wins, he's one of the guys that really made UFC what it is today


ogre, not sure i agree, i think if he can keep it mostly on the ground he can definitely outwork machida for a solid decision. If he just stays relentless with those elbows from the top he can definitely wear machida down, and he can definitely push the pace through the fight cardio-wise

DG you misunderstand what i'm saying even if he kicks machida's ass all around the octagon do you really think the judges will give him a fair shake.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by littleogre

DG you misunderstand what i'm saying even if he kicks machida's ass all around the octagon do you really think the judges will give him a fair shake.

Judges will not be biased here...

Tito is going to control this fight.