Gold, zero, and stimulus.

[niltes]

it seems like our underlying policy is to devalue our currency. with the fed dropping interest ratess, printing money at an amazing rate,
our trade deficit at ridiculously high numbers, and our national debt setting records; it is just a matter of time before we see double digit
inflation and interest rates. our next president no matter who he/she is will inherit an economy that can only make them look bad.

hope you stuck with your yen position pokerjoe. i bought some more this morning at 95.35.

[drunkguy]

Gold finished the day down $13.70 to $851.40 per ounce. Although the precious metal is up 1.5% this year, it has plummeted 18% from its all-time nominal high of $1033.90 per ounce that was reached on March 17.

[niltes]

facts are facts, however if one arbitrarily picks a time to start measuring from, then EVERY STOCK OR COMMODITY has lost value unless it is at is all time right now. i could make a converse observation and show that housing prices are up in almost every market since 1994. that being said gold did become overpriced short-term due to rampant speculation, however if future inflation is anywhere close to what i expect then today's gold prices will look mighty cheap.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by niltes

that being said gold did become overpriced short-term due to rampant speculation, however if future inflation is anywhere close to what i expect then today's gold prices will look mighty cheap.

maybe

but you need to be ahead of the curve, not behind it

gold speculators made their money by buying in early back in 07


but lots of talk the past few weeks about buying gold..unfortunately the market alreasy peaked, buying into stocks now is the best bet. fools are still chasing commodities at this point

this is the same cycle that people have been writing about for the past 100 years

somehow everyoine is still slow to recognize it

[pokerjoe]

Originally Posted by niltes

it seems like our underlying policy is to devalue our currency. with the fed dropping interest ratess, printing money at an amazing rate,
our trade deficit at ridiculously high numbers, and our national debt setting records; it is just a matter of time before we see double digit
inflation and interest rates. our next president no matter who he/she is will inherit an economy that can only make them look bad.

hope you stuck with your yen position pokerjoe. i bought some more this morning at 95.35.

I had to sell half to cover my losses from shorting the market, which has obviously been so rude as to fail to drop as planned. The thing about swinging for the fences is....

I gamble for a living; betting on economics I do for fun.

I think the Fed rate cuts and the weakening $ have protected the market (exports up, cost of money down, and lower (stock) prices in foreign eyes). I still think it'll tank, but I give up on guessing when (though if I had to, I'd say it's holding on, in some strange way, until after the election).

Wouldn't want to be the next prez. With the Fed rate already down to 2%, it'll be like being surrounded by vampires and given a gun with only 2 silver bullets left. Good luck with that. Not to mention the end of the lag between inflationary actions (stimulus, $ drop, decreasing revenues, etc) and the inflation itself (or I should say, the lag between continued disbelief/normal spending, and reality demanded spending cuts).

Wonder how painful it will get here (in CA, where niltes and I live) when the state budget really hits the fan and layoffs occur in what is supposed to be the safe eployment sector. From rolling bubbles to rolling hurts.

Why do I oddly enjoy it? I guess it's the drama. For an econ dude, these are fascinating times.

[degenerategambler]

pokerjoe, the government has a comittee called the working group on financial markets, better known as the plunge protection team. It doesn't make sense that the market has hung on the way it has but they're managed markets not free markets. Google plunge protection team, spend a couple of minutes, you may get a better understanding of why black is white and white is black in the market today. Also do some research on Jim Sinclair, he has a website Welcome to Jim Sinclair's MineSet his daily commentary is money.

[pokerjoe]

I've many times heard of the PPT.
I lean more toward believing the market's support is just this:
Economic Clouds? Wall Street Sees Signs of Sunshine - New York Times

[degenerategambler]

pj, do you believe a word of that spin? We'll have an opportunity to look back in 6mos from now and see what type of recovery we have. Remember the words OTC derivatives, the mess won't be over until the average person can recite what those are and how they've effected them.

[pokerjoe]

Originally Posted by pokerjoe

As the resident MW psycho-pseudo-econ dude, I feel compelled:

The Fed, fearing a stock market drop, takes 3/4 of a point off its funds rate last week.

Do they, and we, not know that ZERO is coming?

From Professor Krugman: Depression Economics Returns (my editing):

IWe are well into the realm of what I call depression economics.

To see what I’m talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday’s report on new claims for unemployment insurance. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic.

But the standard policy response to a weak economy is a cut in the federal funds rate. Today, it isn’t available: the effective federal funds rate has averaged less than 0.3 percent in recent days. Basically, there’s nothing left to cut.

[cash]

Originally Posted by pokerjoe

From Professor Krugman: Depression Economics Returns (my editing):

IWe are well into the realm of what I call depression economics.

To see what I’m talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday’s report on new claims for unemployment insurance. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic.

But the standard policy response to a weak economy is a cut in the federal funds rate. Today, it isn’t available: the effective federal funds rate has averaged less than 0.3 percent in recent days. Basically, there’s nothing left to cut.

Jesus joe you have been spot on for quite awhile.
Hope you got short something..anything.