ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Mess Hall
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Mess Hall Online Sportsbook Discussion

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 09:05 AM
Rogthedodger Rogthedodger is offline
Editor-in-Chief, MajorWager.com
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 6,871
Default The Power of Home Field Advantage in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round...By Jay Graziani

The NFL playoffs have existed in their current form since 1990, when a 3rd wild card team was added in each conference, increasing the number of franchises with tickets to the post-season to 12. The divisional (2nd round) games have the reputation of being strong for the favorites, and indeed they are. Home favorite have gone 50-16 outright in the second round games since 1990, for an almost 76% win rate. This is not surprising, since the home favorites are coming off a bye, giving them an extra week to rest and prepare, while their opponents have generally had a hard-fought wild card game the previous week. (As an aside, there have been two divisional round home underdogs in that span, both won outright.)

But, as always, the pointspread is the great equalizer. The average spread in those 68 divisional playoff games was 6.9, and the favorites managed to cover only 53 % for a 35-31 record (excluding 2 pushes). Ignoring the two home underdogs, the home favorites were a profitable 35-29 (54.7%), beating the spread by an average of 3.3 points. Considering the typical underdog value inherent in NFL lines, this is actually quite a strong trend towards the favorites.

Some may say this trend is already widely enough known to have been built into the current lines. Looking at 3- and 5-year moving averages of divisional round pointspreads, the spreads increased dramatically in the years from 1990 to 1997, possible reflecting incorporation of this angle into the lines. However, a dramatic reversal between 1997 and 2002 brought lines back into the same range where they started in the early 90s (and where they remain today). Whether this is a natural correction to an overreaction in the marketplace or a reflection of greater parity in the NFL is hard to determine. If anything, parity seems to be at an all-time low this year suggesting that lines might actually be too low. Today's lines are more similar to those in the early 90s, even with the knowledge of the strong home field advantage and considering the perception that only 2 or 3 teams have a chance to win the Superbowl this year. This might suggest that the favorites are undervalued this year based on past results.

An interesting trend emerges if we look at the magnitude of the favorites in a given year. In seven seasons, the divisional round favorites were favored by an average of more than a touchdown. In these 7 seasons, the favorites went 17-8-1 ATS (68%). In the years where overall perception of the favorites was worse (the 10 seasons where the average spread in the divisional games was less than a touchdown), the favorites only went 18-21-9 ATS. The 7 seasons where the average spread was above a TD had the favorites outperforming other years by an average of 2 points, including the past 8 consecutive seasons. Of course, this week's playoff round has all four home teams favored by more than a TD, fitting squarely within this better subset for the favorites.

The historical value on the favorites in the divisional round is likely due to skewed public perception. Importantly, the underdogs in the divisional round have been on TV the week before. They probably looked good in the prior game, as they must have done something to manage to advance into the second round. If they were underdogs the previous week, the public perception of them may be even higher, as they pulled an "upset" last week and will tend to be overvalued. Meanwhile, the divisional round favorites have had a week off, and many of them have cruised through the end of the season, usually resting key players in Week 17, if not even earlier. They haven't played solid football in a few weeks, they haven't made highlight reels recently, and the public's memory is exceedingly short. Thus, it is easier to jump on the bandwagon of the "hot" wild-card team, coming off an emotional win, than it is to back the team that has been out of the spotlight for a few weeks and whose strengths are a distant memory.

An argument can be made that any analysis of NFL playoffs is meaningless - there are too few games to achieve statistical significance, and, of course, this is true. The flip side of the coin is that if you wait until the situation or angle is certain, it will already have been built into the lines and will be worthless from a wagering perspective. Gambling implies a level of risk, and sports handicapping is no different, especially in the ultra-competitive NFL where edges disappear quickly into the extremely efficient market. To gain an edge you often have to work with incomplete information, including angles that have not yet achieved statistical significance due to small sample size. In other words, to make money you have to be willing to take a chance. That's not to say these angles should be bet blindly, but the historical performance of favorites is something worth considering in the overall scheme of your handicapping for NFL divisional playoff weekend.

History tells us that the favorites hold the value this week, and I see no reason to buck that trend, as the lines don't seem to be incorporating this angle. The spreads seem generally in line with most "power ratings", for instance, Sagarin ratings (available in USA Today). And as if on cue, the sports media and internet forums have been abuzz about how the underdogs are good bets this week - a sure sign that something is amiss. In particular, the "soup du jour" for the public bettors seems to be the Giants and Seahawks. Early estimates have the public hitting all the underdogs fairly heavily except for San Diego. This is another indication that at least 3 of the 4 favorites this week might hold value.

Of course, the best plays for this weekend are likely to be the "basic strategy" teasers, taking the Colts, Packers, and Cowboys down to less than a field goal. Favorites have won at 73.5% during this round, and you are not giving up much by laying the "dead" numbers of 1 and 2. A 3 team teaser at +180 only needs each leg to hit at 71% to be profitable (two teams at -110 odds is a little sketchier, needing 72.4% to break even). Home favorites in the -7.5 to -8.5 range typically are profitable teaser candidates, and given the situational help, may be even more so this weekend. Of course, those who waited to act may have missed the teaser boat on the Colts, now at -9 at most shops. With the Colts seemingly the public "lock" of the week, bettors may be better served waiting for 10's to pop up and taking the underdog with a line that already looks to be inflated.

Bold Predictions:
Tease: Dallas -1.5, Green Bay -1.5
Patriots -13.5
San Diego +10 (if available)


01-11-08
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-614.html
__________________
Editor-in-Chief
MajorWager.com
editor@majorwager.com
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 09:41 AM
The Major The Major is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 19,380
Default

Great analysis DG. It always amazes me the amount of talent we have gathered at this place. Thanks for all.
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 10:41 AM
jwunderdog jwunderdog is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 899
Default

Man I am in trouble. When DG and I agree I have a win % around 10%. I already bet that Teaser.
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 10:56 AM
stevo stevo is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 64,180
Default

I teased stuff up and I teased some down. In for a hell of a weekend.

Lets hit some middles.
__________________
May the odds be ever in your favor.
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 11:04 AM
KoolPappy KoolPappy is online now
Three Star General
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 12,120
Default

Great Info...thank you!
__________________

Pappy

~ Do more for others than you do for yourself.


Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 11:04 AM
voiceofjanis voiceofjanis is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 505
Default

If I tease this weekend, I'm only teasing down and backing it up with some ML plays on the dogs. As of now, I'm just sitting on the Colts/Chargers under. Even at double digits, hard to put money on a Norv Turner coached team against a quick defense that will only be aided by the indoor conditions.

Jax/NE - I think the better option is to play the 2nd half. If NE is up decent at half, they should be a good bet for the 2H as JAX will need to adjust their style into a quicker paced passing attack in order to mount a comeback, which will only lead to a myriad of problems for Garrard.

Good stuff DG.
Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 01:18 PM
Minnow Minnow is offline
Four Star General
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 18,518
Default

Great info as usual DG, and I don't want to veer off-topic, just have a question about halftime lines.

Seems to me that 2nd H betting is a large advantage. No matter what the score at the half, it seems the original line is factored into the 2nd H line. Why is that?

How shaded is the 2h line towards the home fave, or is that totally situational?
__________________
minnow@ majorwager.com
Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 01:53 PM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy
Default

can't comment on 2nd half lines too much as I don;t really follow them in NFL



but the game line definitely has to be figured in

If Washington is leading Indy by 3 at the half, that will be a much different line than if Washington is leading Miami by 3 at the half...strength of team is going to be important and that is reflected in full game lines. But, yea, sometimes it seems like TOO much credit is given to the pre-game line when halftime rolls around


thanks for the comments guys
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 02:04 PM
Pancho Sanza Pancho Sanza is offline
Three Star General
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 11,238
Default

Who's work is DG plagiarizing, I met the kid and no way he's smart enough to come up with these articles on his own.
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 02:08 PM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancho Sanza View Post
Who's work is DG plagiarizing, I met the kid and no way he's smart enough to come up with these articles on his own.
watch yourself sanza


i may have killed most of my brain cells, but a few managed to survive...they're hardy little fuckers

Will work on getting rid of them tonight though
Reply With Quote
  #11 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 02:19 PM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
Five Star Gypsy
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Miles From Nowhere.
Posts: 21,489
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voiceofjanis View Post
If I tease this weekend, I'm only teasing down and backing it up with some ML plays on the dogs.
Good stuff DG.
speaking of good stuff Janis, great sig-pic. i met Janis ya know. used to go see her and Big Brother at the Avalon Ballroom in '66. i would always be right up against the stage watching/listening to her. met her during one of the breaks and we talked a few minutes ... funny, she was such a raspy singer, but her voice was actually soft & sweet.
__________________
no matter where you go, there you are ...
"And remember, no matter where you go, there you are." .—Confucius


Gyps


AL 29:11 Just Win Baby
Reply With Quote
  #12 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 03:00 PM
Dewitt22 Dewitt22 is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,183
Default

Gents,

I am with STEVO.

Teased some a little up,.....teased some a little down!!

Best of luck to all!!

peace,

Dewitt22
__________________
CONCISENESS AND OBJECTIVITY
Reply With Quote
  #13 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2008, 11:11 PM
Uncle B Uncle B is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: denial
Posts: 48,018
Default

Great read, DG....Thanks...
Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2008, 04:37 AM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
Three Star General
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 13,822
Default

I know its obvious to most here but what often gets lost is there is a reason a team is at home. Specifically the team had a better record during the regular season, lol. People will talk about "home field" like its some kind of magic weapon. Teams that were better during the regular season tend to do better in the playoffs, especially with the bye.

When conference championships come along the home field doesnt mean that much to me.
Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 12:10 AM
Uncle B Uncle B is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: denial
Posts: 48,018
Default

2 down, 2 to go..


i'll be surprised as Hell to see anyone upset tomorrow.


i do think the Giants might be able to cover though....If they can get the defensive line to learn a few Jessica Simpson songs to sing while lining up....that should throw Romo off a bit..
Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 12:12 AM
SlipperyPete SlipperyPete is offline
Three Star General
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 11,348
Default

Romo has a tendency to play stupid at times. So if there is an upset its the the G-men. (We would never hear the end of that )
__________________
Stats are like girls in bikinis. They reveal a lot but not everything.
Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 12:19 AM
Uncle B Uncle B is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: denial
Posts: 48,018
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SlipperyPete View Post
Romo has a tendency to play stupid at times. So if there is an upset its the the G-men. (We would never hear the end of that )


yeah..i gotta admit, i will probably wind up rooting for the Cowboys, just so i don't have to see a bunch of pointless, "TOLD YOU SO!" posts...lol


none of that shit makes sense to me, to be honest... i mean, nobody in that thread that i see, even says anything about the Giants failing...Just that they aren't as good as they could/should be, because of Coughlin.

Maybe i just missed it though, Hell if i know.


All i know is, thats about the only reason i'd wanna see the Giants lose...lol
Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2009, 10:23 PM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy
Default

just wanted to bump this from last year


this year is the worse part of the angle though
Quote:
In the years where overall perception of the favorites was worse (the 10 seasons where the average spread in the divisional games was less than a touchdown), the favorites only went 18-21-9 ATS.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Home Field Advantage for the 730 MNF (EDT game) BigMidge-T The NFL Football Field 1 09-19-2005 01:23 PM
question for stats guys on home field advantage drunkguy Mess Hall 4 05-09-2005 10:35 PM
Pats uncover a new home-field advantage: Team's plan to protect turf is out in open Louis Cypher Mess Hall 32 01-17-2005 03:01 AM
Giants willing to concede home-field advantage Louis Cypher Mess Hall 0 09-27-2003 07:36 PM
PLAYOFFS-HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE brett Mess Hall 1 01-06-2003 11:36 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:08 PM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6