UFC 79: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 79: Nemesis
Saturday, December 29th, 10 PM ET
Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, NV
Weigh-in: Friday, December 28th, 7 PM ET, live online


2007 has been an exciting, yet controversial year for mixed martial arts, and what better way to end it than with one of the better fight cards UFC has offered in some time? The latest installment of the Ultimate Fighting Championship promises a much better event than the previous two lackluster cards. The long-awaited showdown between Wanderlai Silva and Chuck Liddell has finally come to fruition, albeit a bit late with both fighters coming off 2 consecutive losses. Matt Serra's withdrawal left fans with a promising rematch between welterweight stars Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre, with the winner being awarded the interim championship. And a third fight features PRIDE sensation Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou against promising up-and-comer Lyoto Machida, a fight with plenty of implications in a very deep light heavyweight division.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Bookmaker.com.

Mark Bocek (4-1-0) vs. Doug Evans (5-1-0)
Current Odds: Bocek -115; Evans -115

Evans hung tough against Roger Huerta in the TUF 5 finale, but both of these fighters have a strong ground game and this will likely come down to intangibles and game plan. Lean towards Evans in a coin-flip type match. Prediction: Evans, 3rd round submission.

Roan "Jucao" Carneiro (11-6-0) vs. Tony DeSouza (10-3-0)
Current Odds: Carneiro -140; DeSouza +110

DeSouza hasn't fought in over a year, with his last bout ending in a 2nd round KO at the hands of Thiago Alves. Carneiro is 1-1 in UFC Fight Night Events and is making his pay-per-view debut. Both have great ground games, though Carneiro holds the talent edge. At the current odds, this is too close to call. Prediction: Carneiro, 2nd round submission.

Jordan Radev (11-2-0) vs. Dean "The Boogeyman" Lister (9-5-0)
Current Odds: Radev +265; Lister -325

Radev is a former Olympic wrestler who lost his UFC debut at Fight Night 10 by 1st round KO to Andrew McFedries. Lister is a submission specialist who has bounced around a number of promotions (PRIDE, KOTC) before landing in UFC where he has amassed a record of 2-1. Lister is the much more skilled of the two and should be able to counter Radev's groundwork. Prediction: Lister, 1st round submission.

Nate Mohr (8-4-0) vs. Manny "The Pitbull" Gamburyan (5-2-0)
Current Odds: Mohr +335; Gamburyan -415

Gamburyan looks to be a promising fighter, but lost to Nate Diaz due to shoulder injury in his UFC debut in the TUF5 finale, though he looked to control the fight throughout. Mohr hasn't had much experience and has generally looked poor in his fights thus far. This is only Gamburyan's 2nd fight in almost 4 years, so his lack of experience works against him, and I can't see backing him at these huge odds, though he should take this one. Prediction: Gamburyan, 2nd round KO.

Luiz "Banha" Cane (7-0-0) vs. James "The Sandman" Irvin (12-4-0)
Current Odds: Cane -185; Irvin +155

Irvin blew out his knee fighting Thiago Silva back in UFC 71. He is 2-3 in the UFC and seems to be a stepping stone for the undefeated Cane, but Cane's relative inexperience makes it tough to back him. Small lean on Irvin and his big strikes at the current odds, although the injury dampens my enthusiasm. Prediction: Irvin, 1st round KO.

Soa "The Hulk" Palelei (8-1-0) vs. Eddie "The Manic Hispanic" Sanchez (7-1-0)
Current Odds: Palelei -150; Sanchez +120

Palelei hasn't been in the spotlight, having only one big fight at PRIDE 28, ending in a loss. Sanchez had a turn in the spotlight against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic in Cro Cop's UFC debut, losing by TKO in the first round as a +1100 underdog, although he did bounce back with a win against Colin Robinson in UFC 72. Palelei fights with Team Quest and holds a 35 lb. and 2" height advantage in this matchup. Both are big hitters, but Sanchez is the better bet as a very live underdog. Prediction: Sanchez, 2nd round KO.

Rich "No Love" Clementi (29-12-1) vs. Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard (20-6-2)
Current Odds: Clementi +190; Guillard -240

Guillard's last fight was a loss to Joe Stevenson at Fight Night 9, a fight in which he tested positive for cocaine and was handed an 8 month suspension. He is 2-2 since 2006 against sub-prime competition. Clementi has plenty of experience, but has not impressed thus far. Guillard looks much better on paper, but the line is a bit high to make this a bet. Prediction: Guillard, 1st round KO.

Lyoto Machida (11-0-0) vs. Rameau "The African Assassin" Sokoudjou (4-1-0)
Current Odds: Machida -130; Sokoudjou +100

Machida is a solid up-and-comer with a great resume and no losses to his name so far. Sokoudjou is relatively new to professional MMA, but has a 30 second KO over "Minotoro" Nogueira, and has won his last four by 1st round KO or TKO. I've backed Machida in his last two and see no reason to change the trend here. Prediction: Machida 1st round KO.

Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell (20-5-0) vs. Wanderlai "The Axe Murderer" Silva (31-7-1)
Current Odds: Liddell +105; Silva -135

Liddell is coming off two consecutive losses, first to Quinton Jackson and then Keith Jardine. Liddell's stock has plummeted, but I'm not buying the news of his demise quite yet. Silva is also coming off 2 losses (Dan Henderson and Cro Cop) and will have only have fought once in the past 15 months leading up to this match. It's no secret that PRIDE fighters have struggled in the Octagon, but that is likely already priced into the lines. Both are tremendous strikers, and the talent level is fairly even, so this will come down to motivation, training camp, and game plan. Expect Liddell to come in refocused and with improvements to the flaws he's shown the last two times out. Prediction: Liddell, 2nd round KO.

Matt Hughes (41-5-0) vs. Georges "Rush" St-Pierre (14-2-0)
Current Odds: Hughes +185; St-Pierre -225

GSP is a deserving favorite in this fight, as a rising star 8 years Hughes' junior and winner of the last bout between these two. This interim fight was set up on only a month's notice, and the short notice may spell trouble for both GSP, now with a short camp, as well as Hughes, who is now preparing for a completely different fighter. Hughes has been relatively inactive, with only one fight in the last 13 months, a decision win over Chris Lytle back in March. While his inactivity may play against him, he has only 2 losses in his last 22 fights (against St-Pierre and BJ Penn). Hughes submitted GSP in the first round of their 2004 bout, but lost by TKO in their last match at UFC 65 - a fight in which GSP was warned after two unintentional groin kicks. GSP's only career losses were to Hughes and his recent upset loss at the hands of Matt Serra, though he looked better in his comeback decision over Josh Koscheck. It's also worth noting that Hughes was coming off a war against veteran BJ Penn only 2 months before his loss to GSP, and his game plan will be much different than in that fight, where he was stymied in his takedown attempts and resorted to trading strikes with GSP. GSP has the talent edge, but Hughes' experience, cardio, and exceptional wrestling should give him a good shot if he comes in with a better game plan, and he is worth a play at almost 2-to-1. Prediction: Hughes by decision.

Picks (22-20 -4.35 units; Best Bets: 6-5, +0.40 units)
Eddie Sanchez +120
Lyoto Machida -130
Chuck Liddell +105
Matt Hughes +185 (Best Bet)


Opinions (29-23 -3.05 units)
Doug Evans -115
Roan Carneiro -140
Dean Lister -325
Manny Gamburyan -415
James Irvin +155
Melvin Guillard -240


12-28-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-609.html

[WrongSideWarrior]

Bump for Jay...

Another solid write up.

[drunkguy]

would be nice to get my record in the black before the end of the year, but need a near sweep here


fuckin Cro Cop

[WrongSideWarrior]

Liddell is going to give you some help tonight. I think you are strong there...

I just don't see Hughes winning this fight unless it is a decision. I don't think GSP gives him top position so that he can work his subs.

Machida is a great fighter but this kid Soku is tough. I think this fight is a coin flip but you have the right side of the coin IMO. (Sounds funny..)

Sanchez would scare me. These big unknown HWY's often come in so out of shape and embarassing in the UFC that I have a VERY hard time betting them.

[StarnetGypsy]

if this game gets anymore boring i'm afraid i'll commit virtual world suicide

[Oddessa]

Great well thought out writeup as usual Jay. You are helping bring MMA to new audience with the writeups.

This card is one of those where u can do OK betting opposite some of the bigger moves. These are just my gut feelings on the bouts. Not trying to intentionally go against your plays or anything.

This is what I think the final tally will be...trandom thoughts....and why. Dont wanna talkk anyone off any winners or onto a loser.


Picks (22-20 -4.35 units; Best Bets: 6-5, +0.40 units)
Eddie Sanchez +120 LOSE ...Soa is an animal and Eddie had bad camp. I see -220's now.
Lyoto Machida -130 LOSE ...but I'd take either at + money
Chuck Liddell +105 WIN ... Jeff Sherdog loves Liddell too
Matt Hughes +185 (Best Bet) WIN .....I think GSP maybe teh most overhyped fighter in UFC..Matt shouldnt be +185 aganst anyone at WW....


Opinions (29-23 -3.05 units)
Doug Evans -115 LOSE
Roan Carneiro -140 LOSE ..but would take either at + money
Dean Lister -325 LOSE ....If radaev can saty outa triangle he can GNP a win..depends how they judge it..

Manny Gamburyan -415 ....I think Manny wins....but he;s not 100% healed off the shoulder injury..he passed up surgery for rehab and shoulders/knees are worst thing to heal naturally
James Irvin +155 LOSE.... IMO the worst striker and luckiest fighter to ver enter teh Octagon...
Melvin Guillard -240 WIN ...but the world is on Clementi... Jeff Sherdog likes Rich alot too.


Good luck everyone...hopefully the card is good.



In IFL Horondecki is money, heiron is best bet at + money...and LC Davis can win. he dont belong +270...and...dont be shocked if it ends suspect...

[drunkguy]

thanks for the thoughts Oddessa...good luck on your bets

[JCNovak]

I like Silva, Hughes, Machida, Cane, Clementi. Leaning towards DeSouza and Soa as well.

[StarnetGypsy]

oh, i apologize, wrong thread. thot it was UCF football game

will be flicking back an forth from Pats/Giants to UFC event tho

[Oddessa]

Mark Bocek vs. Douglas Evans
Round 1
Bocek came out looking for a takedown from the sound of the bell. Bocek then threw a lazy headkick which was countered by Evans, who landed a left-right combo that buckled his opponent's knees. Several sprawls later, Bocek was able to secure a takedown and move to side-control, but he could do nothing with the position. 10-9 for Evans.

Round 2
Bocek starts the second frame much like the first, shooting for takedowns and getting stuffed by Evans. On his fourth attempt, Bocek swooped in and scored a double-leg takedown. Evans got back to his feet, only to be slammed hard back to the ground, where Bocek punished him with elbows from half-guard. As the round ended, Evans sported a cut over his left eye from Bocek's elbows. 10-9 for Bocek.

[Oddessa]

Round 3
Bocek got a single-leg takedown to kickoff the final frame. After several minutes of inactivity, referee Herb Dean stood the fighters up. Another takedown from Bocek followed. Evans looked briefly for a triangle and an armbar from the bottom but he could not mount any offense. Dean again stood the fighters up before time expired. 10-9 for Bocek. All three judges score the contest 29-28 for Mark Bocek

[WrongSideWarrior]

Nice way to start off the show Oddessa...

Thanks for the word from your buddy.

[Oddessa]

IFL


Alex Cook vs. Marcello Salazar

R1 - Both men circle extensively early on until Salazer shoots in and scores a double-leg takedown. Cook attempts a submission, but Salazar moves in side mount where he lands several knees to the body. The referee orders a stand-up and Salazar scores again with takedowns and lands some small punches.

R2- Both men come out swinging. Salazar tries a takedown, but ends up on bottom. Cook stands over and calls for him to rise to his feet. A big straight kick by Salazar backs Cook up and Salazar gets another takedown. Salazar lands punches that draws smiles from Cook. The ref calls for a stand-up but Salazar gets another takedown to close out the round.


R3 - Both men start tentative until Salazar scores another takedown and side mount. Action slows and the ref calls for another stand-up. A high kick by Cook is blocked. Salazar gets another takedown, brings down fists, and holds Cook until the end of the round.

Marcello Salazar def. Alex Cook - Unanimous Decision (30-27 all)

---------------------

Brett Cooper v. Rory Markham

R1 - This welterweight clash starts with fists and feet flying. Markham clips Cooper and throws a vicious high kick. Cooper gets out of trouble with a takedown and the crowd is buzzing as Markham works for a triangle choke. Cooper avoids being submitted. Both are stood up and Cooper scores another takedown. Markham throws punches to close out an exciting round.

R2- The second rounds starts with more hard strikes from both men. Cooper throws a punch and lands a takedown. Cooper peppers Markham with punches as he comes up from the mat and throws a flying knee. Cooper then smothers Markham with punches into the corner, landing an uppercut that brings Markham down and shocks the audience as Cooper scores the knockout victory.


Brett Cooper def. Rory Markham - TKO (Referee Stoppage - Strikes) 1:15 R2

--------------------

Elias Rivera vs. Tim Kennedy


R1- Rivera, a Connecticut resident, soaks in a hometown reception and lands a hard right flush to Kennedy's face. Kennedy answers with a high takedown and gets mount. Kennedy angles for several positions and starts raining down punches until he catches Rivera hard for the knockout. Doctors rush the ring to check on Rivera.

Rivera is taken from the ring on a stretcher.

Ring announcer Tim Hughes tells the crowd Rivera is okay, is moving his extremities and will be taken to a hospital for observation.

Tim Kennedy def. Elias Rivera - KO 2:00 R1

[WrongSideWarrior]

Cooper was a nice sized dog to come in...

[Oddessa]

Roan Carneiro vs. Tony DeSouza
Round 1
Carneiro came out and executed a beautiful trip takedown early in the first. DeSouza, from the bottom, attempted an omaplata and an armbar before letting go of the holds. Carneiro used the opportunity to pass guard, while DeSouza gave up his back. Carneiro looked for a rear-naked choke and a Kimura before DeSouza reversed the position and ended up on top. The rest of the round saw the fighters trade positions while offering little in terms of offense. 10-9 for Carneiro.

Round 2
A stalemate against the fencing was halted early in the period by referee Steve Mazagatti, who restarted the action in the center of the Octagon. Carneiro then secured a flawless double-leg takedown. DeSouza stood up, only to find his opponent on his back with both hooks in. Carneiro drug him down and pounded away until Mazzagatti stepped in to save DeSouza at 3:30 of the seconds round.

[Oddessa]

Jordan Radev vs. Dean Lister
Round 1
Lister and Radev offer a dull first round of action. Lister landed a few kicks to the body and leg, but spent most of the round trying to shoot and pull guard. Radev showed good takedown defense and did not allow Lister to fully pull guard. Lister takes the uneventful frame 10-9 on the Sherdog.com scorecard.

Round 2
The first 4:30 of the second round is a carbon copy of the first, with little action displayed and the crowd showering the cage with boos. Lister then got underhooks and slammed Radev powerfully to the canvas. Lister moved to mount and looked for an armbar, but he gave it up to throw elbows at Radev's head. The round ended with Lister in complete control, 10-9.

Round 3
More of the same in the final period. Lister looked over and over for the takedown but Radev stuffed them and did little else. At the 2:30 mark, Lister scored with a trip takedown. Lister passed to half-guard, but chose to ride the position out until the final horn sounded. 10-9 for Lister. All three judges agree, offering scores of 30-27 across the board for Dean Lister.

[Don King's Barber]

The Boogeyman should pick his nose and eat the boogers right before they touch gloves to psych out his opponents...

[Oddessa]

Nate Mohr vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Round 1
Gamburyan looked for takedowns in the opening minute, with Mohr stuffing two in a row. On his third attempt, Gamburyan successfully took Mohr down, then dropped back for an ankle lock that forced his opponent to tap at 1:31 of the first. Mohr appeared to injure his right knee during the final moments of the bout when Gamburyan secured the hold.

god sounds like this card blows chunks so far...

[Yzerman#19]

Originally Posted by Don King's Barber

The Boogeyman should pick his nose and eat the boogers right before they touch gloves to psych out his opponents...