Patriots favored by 20 or more is the norm

[clevfan]

Patriots favored by 20 or more is the norm

Neil Best
Newsday.com
December 11, 2007

'It's kind of mind-boggling," John Avello said yesterday from his Las Vegas office, studying months worth of Patriots point spreads and facing at least two more weeks of odd odds for Bill's Bullies.

"They're shocking, they really are ... If you asked me before this year, I'd have said there'd be no way we'd see 20."

Twenty? That's old hat now.

Avello, director of race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, said if the Pats rout the Jets on Sunday and the Dolphins lose big to the Ravens, next week's Dolphins-Patriots game could open at a shocking 30-point spread.

(The NFL Network's Deion Sanders on the Pats' next two opponents: "They could beat those guys on the same day.")

First things first: Avello opened the Jets game at 24, amazingly high yet below his closing number for Eagles-Pats Nov. 25 - which at Wynn opened at 23 and closed at 25.

That turned out to be the first of two consecutive spreads the Patriots (10-3 ATS) failed to cover after an early run that cost sports books a bundle. Their slight stumble probably will keep the spread from growing out of control this week. Probably.

Keith Glantz, co-author of the Glantz-Culver line, told AP he opened the Pats at 27, but his line soon dropped to 24 because of the possibility of poor playing conditions. Other books have it at 24 1/2.

Jay Kornegay is sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, whose line opened at 25; now it's 24. "It's something we've never seen before in our era," he said. "It's a very difficult number to make every week. It's a challenge."

Records are not well kept when it comes to spreads, but the Nov. 25 Eagles game and this week's are in the same ballpark as some of the biggest figures on record, including 24 for a Steelers-Buccaneers game in 1976 and 23 for 49ers-Bengals in 1993.

According to The Gold Sheet, the all-time record is 28 for a Colts-Falcons game in 1966.

Dave Tuley, a sports betting columnist for the Daily Racing Form, said, "Everyone talks about parity in the NFL. To have a team favored by more than three touchdowns, it's incredible."

Avello said he gave the Patriots 18 points based on his own power rating formula, five more for home field and another given his sense of where bettors would head.

What about the Spygate Factor? Is there a premium for Bill Belichick's presumed desire to grind the Jets and coach Eric Mangini into a fine green powder?

"The camera deal?" Avello said. "I'm not so sure that's in Belichick's mind. The motivation against the Steelers was much higher. Those guys were trying to do everything in their power to squash Pittsburgh and to also beat that safety .

"The Jets are nowhere near the quality of the Steelers."

Avello said the season's most shocking number was 19½, at which the Patriots-Ravens game opened; he has seen spreads in the 20s for a team at home before, but never that high on the road.

"If it's a Florida Gators team that has a high-powered offense that's blowing everyone out 56-7 every week, it makes sense they're at 29, 30 points," he said. "In the pros? This is very unusual."

What do the Jets' players think of all this? Tom Rock sent this account from the locker room of safety Kerry Rhodes being asked about the spread:

"How big?" he asked.

Twenty-four. And a half.

"One more time?"

Rhodes was just being playful, although he knows things will get serious Sunday. "I guess from those numbers alone, we don't have a chance," he said. "But we don't feel that way. We feel we can play with anybody on any given day."



ESPN celebrates

Sure, ESPN's self-promotion is prolific and annoying. And of course, its overly chummy relationship with athletes it covers is journalistically creepy.

Yet there is no disputing the entertainment value of a tradition that boldly commits both sins, the "This is SportsCenter" ad campaign, created 12 years ago by the agency Wieden+Kennedy.

Tonight, ESPN celebrates it with a one-hour special at 8, hosted by Karl Ravech, with highlights of the more than 300 spots produced, including the first, as well as three new ads.



Blue notes

Mike Breen has had much to be disgusted with while calling Knicks games in recent seasons, but in the waning minutes of Saturday's loss, his exasperation reached a new level. "There is no spirit, no fight; this team is desperately missing something," he said, among many other things, telling it like it is as best as can be expected on one of James Dolan's channels ... I wrote a recent blog post about Andy Freed, currently of the Tampa Rays, being in the mix for the Mets' radio booth. It was a good sign that he got only raves in the comments section from those who have heard him ... CBS' late window Sunday, featuring Steelers-Patriots, drew 18.4 percent of homes in 56 large markets, making the three highest-rated NFL slots of the season Patriots games on CBS. The team and network are to consummate their cozy relationship next year with the opening of "CBS Scene, " a theme restaurant near Gillette Stadium in that famed tourist mecca of Foxborough, Mass.



Spread 'em!

The point spread on the Jets-Patriots game is 24 or 24 1/2 at most legal sports books, which should it hold through the week will land it among the top five in the post-merger era. Here are the top four compiled by Dave Tuley, sports betting columnist for the Daily Racing Form:

Team Line Opp. Year Result

Patriots -24 1/2 Eagles 2007 Patriots win, 31-28, but do not cover.

Steelers -24 Bucs 1976 Steelers win and cover, 42-0.

49ers -23 Bengals 1993 49ers win, 21-8, but do not cover.

49ers -23 Falcons 1987 49ers win, 25-17, but do not cover.

[clevfan]

The opening line: 27 points.
Patriots running up record odds as well

From Staff and Wire Reports

LAS VEGAS - The New England Patriots' record-setting pace includes the betting odds, too.
The undefeated Patriots were made 27-point favorites over the New York Jets in the opening line for Sunday's game in Foxborough, Mass.

The line dropped to 24 yesterday, which would match San Francisco's record opening-line point spread over Cincinnati Dec. 5, 1993, according to Keith Glantz, coauthor of the Glantz-Culver betting line. The 49ers won that game, 21-8.

New England was a 22-point opening-line pick over the Eagles. The point spread grew to 24 by game day Nov. 25, but the Patriots struggled to beat the visiting Eagles, 31-28.

New England is 13-0 after routing Pittsburgh on Sunday, while the Jets are 3-10.

"When the Patriots are not playing the elite, they tend to run up the score," Glantz said. "The opponent just can't seem to stop them."

He said the point spread dropped because of the possibility of poor playing conditions. "If the weather is bad - ice, sleet or rain - it will affect the game," Glantz said.