Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Mess Hall
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Mess Hall Online Sportsbook Discussion

LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2007, 01:27 PM
Rogthedodger Rogthedodger is offline
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 6,871
Default Patriots Superbowl Mania Presents Opportunity for Futures Bettors...By Jay Graziani

Patriot fever has swept the ranks of NFL fans this season. New England is on pace to become the highest scoring team in NFL history (averaging over 39 points per game thus far), and 17 NFL records have already been tied or broken by the team or individual players this season. Of course, the holy grail of NFL records, the undefeated season, is within reach and is all but destined according to the majority of football commentators in the media.

In terms of Superbowl futures, linesmakers have installed the Patriots as slight favorites against the field, laying 6-to-5 or worse. That means you can take the whole rest of the NFL at even money or better. While the masses will gladly partake in the Tom Brady-flavored Kool-Aid, it is worth taking a look at going against the grain and betting against the Pats to win the Superbowl at the current prices.

The Pats are a lock for the playoffs, and barring a complete meltdown, will hold home field advantage up until the Superbowl. So we can essentially ignore the rest of the regular season and look only at the Patriot's playoff possibilities. Keep in mind that betting a team at even money to win 3 games in a row (2 playoff games and the Superbowl) implies an average probability of nearly 80% of winning each game. Converted to a moneyline, this is -400, or a game spread of about -11 or -12. And taking the Patriots to win the Superbowl means you are parlaying the AFC Conference, AFC Divisional and Superbowl games, laying about 4-to-1 in each.

To put this in perspective, 80% wins is a 13-3 season in the NFL, an elite level of performance. And while the Patriots are certainly a 13-3-type team this year, could they go 13-3 facing only playoff-caliber teams? This is a prime of example of "irrational exuberance" among NFL traders. Of course, Belichick coincidentally happens to hold a 13-3 career playoff record, but the NFL postseason has held plenty of surprises in the past, and there is no reason to think this year will be much different. History has taught us that most teams come back to earth at some point, when "reversion to the mean" catches up to them. It is nearly impossible to continue the blistering pace the Patriots have set for themselves this season.

While apparently one of the best teams to take an NFL field in decades, the Patriots are still far from a perfect squad. They have only an average rushing game (15th in the league in yards per carry), although it could be argued that they haven't really needed to use it. A resurgent Sammy Morris has been sidelined, and Laurence Maroney has broken 80 yards only once this year (against the Bills), much to the chagrin of many fantasy football owners.

The Pats are also slightly below average in their rushing defense (tied for 19th in the league in yards allowed per rush), which is especially surprising considering their high-powered, quick-score offense that should be forcing teams to throw. A team with a strong secondary and decent rushing game, Pittsburgh or Indianapolis for instance, could match up well in the playoffs by shutting down the Patriots aerial attack and using old-fashioned ground control football to grind out a win. With the high level of coaching talent in the NFL, it will be surprising if no one figures out how to beat this team by the time the Superbowl rolls around. In fact, this is starting to look very similar to Superbowl XXXVI, when the seemingly unstoppable offensive juggernaut of the Rams came in as double-digit favorites, only to see their offensive scheme dismantled by none other than Bill Belichick. Now that the tables are turned, expect opposing coaches to come up with many innovative game plans to attack the Patriots' high-scoring passing game.

New England has already beaten two of their potential postseason opponents on the road, Indianapolis and Dallas, though it could be argued that the Colts outplayed New England and should have won that game. Only a monumental defensive laydown by the Colts, resulting in 2 Tom Brady TDs in a 4 minute span, allowed New England to preserve their pristine record. Based on the closing line in the last game, New England would be 11-12 point favorites if facing Indy at home, although the play of the game last week suggests that the line was too high. Of course, the Pats could also end up facing Pittsburgh in the playoffs, another very strong team that could be a tough match-up, though we will get to preview it in week 14. Dallas, though being beaten handily by New England in Week 6, should improve by January and it is difficult seeing them getting 10 points in the Superbowl (if they make it that far).

The bottom line is that the line on the Patriots winning the Superbowl is just too high. The Patriots, or any NFL team for that matter, can't reasonably be expected to win at an 80% clip in the playoffs If you are buying the hype that New England is the most dominant team in NFL history, then by all means lay the -120 on New England to win the Superbowl. I think that is giving any team too much credit considering the parity and randomness inherent in the modern NFL era. Taking a contrarian standpoint in the NFL has always paid dividends, and there is nothing more contrarian this year than fading a seemingly invincible Patriots team down the stretch.

Ed.'s note: Bettors can make a wager on the early Superbowl line posted at all the Jazette books (such as and The line isn't available during NFL Sundays, but at last check the line was AFC -16.5/NFC +16.5.

Jay Graziani
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2007, 01:36 PM
stevo stevo is offline
Five Star General
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 64,316

Nice write up and info Jay
May the odds be ever in your favor.
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2007, 12:15 AM
Uncle B Uncle B is offline
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: denial
Posts: 48,018

Good stuff, drunken one..
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2007, 01:01 AM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy

Originally Posted by Rogthedodger View Post

Ed.'s note: Bettors can make a wager on the early Superbowl line posted at all the Jazette books (such as and The line isn't available during NFL Sundays, but at last check the line was AFC -16.5/NFC +16.5.
Thanks for adding that in. I think that is also very high although obviously you would rather have the 17
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A Few Superbowl Proposition Wagers Worthy of Consideration...By Jay Graziani Rogthedodger Mess Hall 16 02-05-2007 12:01 AM
Breaking Down Alternate Point Spreads for Superbowl XLI...By Jay Graziani Rogthedodger Mess Hall 0 02-01-2007 02:31 PM
SuperBowl futures ICE CUBE Mess Hall 20 09-20-2006 12:53 AM
The Patriots are on there way to the Superbowl again McStew Mess Hall 19 01-24-2005 02:05 AM
superbowl bet on patriots, best bet for carolina bettors... jimmy the greek The NFL Football Field 0 01-30-2004 06:35 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:26 AM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6