PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 63.5 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* BOISE STATE/FRESNO STATE Under
When looking for an Under in a stand-alone game on national television there is never a hurry to the window, but now that the 63.5’s are available in the marketplace it is ready to go with this one. This year’s battle for the “Milk Can” has a chance to be similar to the last two meetings between these programs in Fresno, when only 48 and 34 points hit the scoreboard, and the current price offers outstanding value.
After a disappointing 2006 campaign Pat Hill spoke often about getting back to “Bulldog Football”, and the key to evaluating their 5-2 opening, including 4-0 in WAC play, is to note that they have done just that; it is not merely the fact that they are winning, but that they are doing it their way. Once again we see a Hill team with a punishing ground game between the tackles, keyed by the emergence of talented young runners Lonyae Miller and Ryan Mathews (have combined for 958 yards and 15 rushing TD’s already); a passing game that values taking care of the football (QB Tom Brandstater has only been intercepted three times in 176 attempts); solid special teams (punter Kyle Zimmerman leads the conference at 42.6, and has had 15 downed inside the 20-yard line already); and a defense that is among the nation’s most improved units this season.
The defense will play with an extra level of confidence at home, where they have not allowed a touchdown this season. Yes, the competition has not been the most difficult on this field, but let’s balance that by noting that they were much better than the numbers showed in conference wins at Nevada and Idaho, when 31 points were allowed in the fourth quarter of games that were well in hand. They have held three of four WAC opponents to less than 50 percent completions, and their ability to stand up to Tyler Tharp and the Boise passing game helps to keep this tempo where we want it.
We mention that passing game because the Broncos will again be without All-American candidate Ian Johnson at RB. Jeremy Avery has put up solid numbers as his replacement but is a different kind of runner (weights 33 pounds less), and that can particularly matter in short yardage situation in this type of matchup. Turning 7’s into 3’s is a key to winning any Under, and Boise should have some issues in the red zone in this matchup.
So why such a high Total despite the edges that we see in the game flow? The fact that the Bronco defense has had a pair of sub-par games in a row. But we do not find alarm in those box scores; two games back they went up against emerging Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, the subject of this week’s NCAA GRIDLINES column on our front page. Kaepernick was the same QB that caused Fresno State all of those fourth quarter problems through the back door when the Bulldogs won in Reno. And while allowing 208 rushing yards at Louisiana Tech last week would also appear to be a major negative, note that 74 of those yards came on one play. This is a veteran unit that will make a solid account of itself tonight, giving us a much slower tempo than what is being called for.  | 
BETCRIS 
10-26-2007, 08:07 PM
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