Point-spread trends favor Gamecocks in game with Tar Heels

[clevfan]

Oct. 13, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

South will rise in Carolina battle

Point-spread trends favor Gamecocks in game with Tar Heels

By PAUL STONE
SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL

Butch Davis got his first signature win as North Carolina football coach last week as the Tar Heels upset the Miami Hurricanes, the team Davis coached before he bolted for a brief run in the NFL.

The Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill, N.C., this week against another top-level opponent, South Carolina.

North Carolina, a 61/2-point home underdog to Miami, is getting 7 points today. But the Gamecocks are far superior to the Hurricanes in the current college football landscape.

Before last week, the Tar Heels had not defeated a Division I opponent this season, with their lone victory being a season-opening 37-14 romp over James Madison.

While last week's victory is a huge step in the right direction for North Carolina, the Gamecocks -- who won at Georgia and fought gamely at top-ranked Louisiana State -- have better athletes at more positions than the Tar Heels, and that class advantage should prove decisive.

North Carolina has two historical point-spread trends working against it. The Tar Heels are 10-18 against the spread after their past 28 straight-up victories and 5-14 against the spread in their past 19 nonconference home games.

Meanwhile, coach Steve Spurrier has thrived on the road during his brief tenure at South Carolina, winning eight straight against the spread.

Gamecocks redshirt freshman quarterback Chris Smelley, who took over the position a few weeks ago, is gaining more experience and confidence with each start.

I recommend laying the points and taking visiting South Carolina to defeat North Carolina by double digits.

Other selections for today (home team in CAPS):

• SYRACUSE (+171/2) over Rutgers -- The Orange has covered only one of five games this season. I think, however, that Rutgers will be short on emotion and energy at the Carrier Dome. The Scarlet Knights have seen their Bowl Championship Series and national title aspirations squashed the past two weekends and now face a conference team they have defeated by 22 and 31 points the past two years.

Scarlet Knights quarterback Mike Teel can be turnover-prone and is playing on the road for the first time this year. Rutgers is 0-5 against the spread as an away favorite since the start of the 2004 season, so it has fallen short in similar spots in recent times.

• Bowling Green (+11/2) over MIAMI (OHIO) -- Bowling Green is the better team offensively and should be highly motivated after losing 9-7 to Miami last year as a 4-point home favorite.

Falcons quarterback Tyler Sheehan threw five interceptions last week in a lopsided loss to Boston College but should get well here against a Redhawks defense that has allowed an average of 268 passing yards over the past five games. Bowling Green averages 352 yards passing per game to rank sixth in the NCAA, so the Falcons will be matching their strength against the Redhawks' weakness.

• Wisconsin (+7) over PENN STATE -- The Badgers had their 14-game winning streak snapped last week at Illinois and take to the Big Ten road for the second straight week. Wisconsin has not been overly impressive but gets a healthy chunk of points against a Nittany Lions team that has sputtered in similar situations.

In the past 10 Penn State games when the line has been 7 points or less, the underdog is 8-2 against the spread. Also, the Lions are 2-8 against the spread off their past 10 straight-up victories.

• Illinois (-4) over IOWA -- The Hawkeyes had questions on offense entering the season, and a rash of injuries significantly has compounded those issues.

Illinois was a 21-point home underdog last season in this game. Illinois is 8-3 against the spread in its past 11 conference games, and Iowa is 2-9 against the number over the same span of conference games.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 16-13-1

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegas Sports Authority (vegassportsauthority.com) is providing weekly college football analysis for the Review-Journal this season.

[stevo]

Maybe a bounce back week for hm?