Handicapper thinks bettors can take advantage of the point spread for the Patriots-Cowboys game

[clevfan]

October 12, 2007

Jeff Haney on why one handicapper thinks bettors can take advantage of the point spread for the Patriots-Cowboys game

LAS VEGAS SUN

The New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys are both 5-0 straight-up.

The Patriots are also 5-0 against the point spread, the Cowboys 4-1 ATS.

The teams have the top two offenses in the NFL measured by yards per game and yards per play.

When they clash Sunday in Dallas, it will be the most highly anticipated game of the NFL season to date.

Even though early money at the betting windows this week was supporting New England, a spread of 6 points is too much to pass up for Las Vegas handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach, who likes the Cowboys as an underdog.

"This is the best team in the NFC," Ginsbach said. "I believe it will be a one-score game."

The point spread, which opened as low as 2 1/2 points on the early Las Vegas line, could be a little inflated as a result of both teams' most recent games.

The Patriots covered a big 15 1/2-point spread Sunday against Cleveland, winning 34-17. The Cowboys, 10 1/2-point favorites, escaped Buffalo with a 25-24 victory in a wild Monday night game.

Neither New England nor Dallas has faced an opponent ranked among the league's top 10 rushing teams, according to Ginsbach's calculations, so Sunday's game shapes up as a real test for both.

"New England was not really sharp last week, especially in the second half, and their red-zone defense has not performed especially well," said Ginsbach (online at sportsmemo.com).

In another NFL game, Ginsbach will back the Redskins as a 3 1/2-point underdog against the Packers. Washington, an undervalued team according to Ginsbach, has the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL in terms of yards per pass and figures to control the line of scrimmage against Green Bay as well. Both 3 and 3 1/2 are available in Las Vegas sports books, so Washington bettors should make sure they get the key number working for them.


• • •

After its huge upset of USC last week as a 40-point underdog - the latest in a string of stunners this college football season - Stanford's fortunes could go one of two ways. Either it will enjoy a boost in confidence or it will sustain a major letdown. Ginsbach projects it will be the latter, recommending TCU minus 5 1/2 points Saturday against the Cardinal .

"Stanford's going to struggle to get back to that high level, and it would be big for TCU (of the Mountain West) to come in and beat a Pac-10 team," Ginsbach said.

Oddball bet

Former Vice President Al Gore's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are strong enough that offshore book Pinnacle has Gore, at odds of plus-312 (risk $1 to net $3.12), matched against the "field," or everyone else (minus-342). The Norwegian Nobel Committee was to announce the winner today.

Bettors who took the field have front-runners such as Canadian global warming activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier, Buddhist monk Thich Quang Do and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, along with long shots such as Bono and Bob Geldof working for them.

Pinnacle, based in Curacao, deals with bettors worldwide but voluntarily pulled out of the U.S. market this year.

Betting on awards such as the Nobel Prize is not permitted in Nevada under state gaming regulations.

Contest update

Both ends of today's doubleheader in the Leroy's sports books "Money Talks" football handicapping contest will take place in Las Vegas.

From 2 to 3 p.m. at Fitzgeralds, Dave Hochman faces Larry Trusley. This segment airs on KENO 1460-AM. From 7 to 9 p.m. at the Riviera, Jeff Whitelaw takes on "Doc" Moseman. This segment airs on KSFN 1140-AM.

Last week James Manos (4-3) defeated "Frank B." (3-4) and Marc Lawrence (4-3) ousted Paul Stone (2-5).

Each of the 32 contestants in the single-elimination, bracket-style tournament put up $5,000 to compete, the highest entry fee for a sports handicapping contest in Nevada.

Winners are determined by the better record in seven picks against the spread from the weekend's college and professional football games.

The contestants are 52-54-6 ATS collectively heading into today's matches.

Accountability corner

(In which accurate predictions made in past columns are righteously praised, and the ugly details of inaccurate predictions are rehashed.)

Las Vegas handicapper Joe D'Amico was 1-3 in four NFL picks last week. He was correct in picking the Steelers, who cruised past Seattle, 21-0. He lost by the hook when Arizona won by 3 points as a 3 1/2-point favorite. He whiffed on the Packers, who lost outright to the Bears as a small favorite, and the Texans, who won but failed to cover against Miami.

In Saturday's super featherweight fight at Mandalay Bay, Bob Arum predicted a Manny Pacquiao victory by late stoppage, a pick I supported. We had the winner, Pacquiao as a 3-1 favorite, but not the precise result. Pacquiao won a lopsided unanimous decision against Marco Antonio Barrera.

[StarnetGypsy]

he neglects to mention the Pats are 0-4 SU in Dallas ...

[Bostongambler]

Was that pre Dynasty.

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

he neglects to mention the Pats are 0-4 SU in Dallas ...

So, what do you like here Gyps?

i know you got it in a teaser somewhere...