Jeff Haney calculates the chances that the New England Patriots will go undefeated this year...

[clevfan]

October 08, 2007

Jeff Haney calculates the chances that the New England Patriots will go undefeated this year to determine whether we're being offered good value on a proposition wager

LAS VEGAS SUN

Two newly posted football betting propositions from Caesars Palace oddsmakers require bettors to project the outcome of the seasonlong records of Notre Dame and the New England Patriots.

Another, at Wynn Las Vegas, allows bettors to wager on whether any team will finish the NFL regular season either undefeated or without a victory. If either of those outcomes occurs, gamblers who bet the "Yes" side of the prop cash tickets. Otherwise, bettors who played the "No" side cash.

Given the nature of the propositions, their odds will be continually adjusted throughout the season as long as they remain on the betting board.

Regardless of the odds, all three props lend themselves to some by-the-numbers analysis - typically a big favorite against playing hunches. ("Sure, the Patriots will go undefeated. They look unbeatable!")

On the Patriots, for example, the opening line on New England finishing the regular season 16-0 was 20-1.

With its victory Sunday against Cleveland, New England improved to 5-0 with 11 games left.

Before wagering on their exact season-win total, bettors will want to estimate the point spread in each of the Patriots' remaining games, then convert the number to a "true" money line - meaning the vigorish, or house's cut of the action, is not taken into account.

A money line can easily be converted into the team's chance of winning the game expressed in percentage form, then those numbers can be crunched.

Using a good set of power ratings, a handicapper might roughly project the rest of the Patriots' season shaping up like this:


at Dallas, minus 3 points, or minus-145 on the money line (59 percent)


at Miami, minus 10, or minus-385 (79 percent)


against Washington, minus 10 (79 percent)


at Indianapolis, minus 1 1/2 (53 percent)


at Buffalo, minus 13 (84 percent)


against Philadelphia, minus 6 (71 percent)


at Baltimore, minus 4 (61 percent)


against Pittsburgh, minus 6 (71 percent)


against the Jets, minus 10 (79 percent)


against Miami, minus 14 (87 percent)


at the Giants, minus 10 (79 percent)

Tallying those percentages yields approximately a 3 percent chance the Patriots will go undefeated, or about a 97 percent chance they won't. In true money-line terms, this equates to about minus-3000 on the "No" side, meaning we would want odds of at least 30-1 to bet the Patriots will finish with 16 games.

Bettors can also wager on the Pats finishing with exactly 15 wins (6-1 on the opening line) through 7 or fewer wins (100-1 on the opening line). Of course, odds will be updated to reflect this weekend's results.

In the Notre Dame prop, exactly 10 losses for the Irish opened as a 2-1 favorite, with odds also available on each of the other possible outcomes. Notre Dame, which has 12 regular-season games on its schedule, improved to 1-5 with a victory Saturday against UCLA.

The Caesars props are available at Harrah's-related properties.

In the prop at the Wynn, the "No" side - meaning every NFL team will finish with at least one victory and one loss - opened at minus-1500 (risk $15 to net $1). The "Yes" - at least one NFL team will go undefeated or finish without a victory - was plus-1000 (risk $1 to net $10).

Heading into this past weekend's action, "Yes" bettors had the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, Packers, Dolphins, Saints and Rams working for them.