Colts, Steelers help public win - Home favorites, including Patriots, cover spread

[clevfan]

Oct. 08, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Colts, Steelers help public win

Home favorites, including Patriots, cover spread

By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL

Sophisticated handicappers and the betting public often take opposite sides of NFL games. It's not unusual for Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts to be standing in the middle.

It was a scenario that played out again Sunday, when the wiseguys backed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the public put its faith in Manning to cover a big spread.

A similar battle line was drawn with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, as the wiseguys supported the Seahawks as 5-point underdogs.

"The public predominantly bets the favorites, and they remember what they've seen last," Caesars Palace sports book director Chuck Esposito said. "The Colts and Steelers are extremely public teams."

In both cases, the public made smart decisions in Week 5.

Even without five starters, the Colts coasted by the Buccaneers 33-14. Indianapolis closed as a 9-point home favorite after the line held at 10 for most of the week.

Manning passed for two touchdowns and made it look easy.

The Colts' offense barely seemed to miss two injured stars, running back Joseph Addai and wide receiver Marvin Harrison.

Indianapolis improved to 3-0 against the spread at home, winning those games by an average margin of 22.7 points.

The Steelers have been just as dominant on their home field, going 3-0 against the spread and winning by an average of 21.7 points.

Pittsburgh was without injured wideouts Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, but its defense held the Seahawks to 144 total yards in a 21-0 win.

The four teams perceived to be the league's elite -- New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Dallas -- are a combined 16-3 against the spread.

The Cowboys, 4-0 straight up and against the spread, are 101/2-point favorites at Buffalo today. The betting public likely won't show any interest in the Bills.

The Patriots beat the Cleveland Browns 34-17 and barely covered as 16-point home favorites.

On the last play of the game, the Browns' Kellen Winslow caught a pass in the back of the end zone but got only one foot down.

"The people who bet that game were on the edge of their seat," Esposito said.

The same was true as the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams went down to the wire. The Cardinals won 34-31 as 4-point road favorites, but the Rams covered by converting a 2-point conversion pass with 13 seconds remaining.

Some might have considered the Green Bay Packers to be an elite team before their 27-20 loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. The Packers, who blew a 20-10 lead, dropped to 4-1 straight up and against the spread.

Esposito said the public pounded the Packers, who closed as 4-point home favorites after the line opened at 3.

The Bears' comeback capped a winning weekend for the books, especially after college football crushed the public on Saturday.

"It was one of the best college days that I can remember in a long time," Esposito said.

The books benefited Sunday by Baltimore, Houston, New Orleans and Tennessee failing to cover as favorites.

The public scored a big decision by backing the San Diego Chargers, who closed as 1-point road favorites in a 41-3 victory over Denver.

"There is so much parity in the NFL, it's difficult to handicap at this point," Esposito said.

[Mr Falcone]

Esposito said the public pounded the Packers, who closed as 4-point home favorites after the line opened at 3.

Who the hell had 4 on this?

[(sportman)]

Not I..

I used "3"...

[Mr Falcone]

Yeah same here. Had to was chasing the JOES from early, and damn sure wasnt gonna give the Bears to anyone.

[Garbage Time]

I had 3.5. Bears wining outright turned my bloodbath day into a flesh wound. Get'em next week I guess :)