Jeff Haney explains that betting on what's 'due' can be a big mistake

[clevfan]

October 05, 2007

Jeff Haney explains that betting on what's 'due' can be a big mistake

LAS VEGAS SUN


Fade: To bet against

Power rating: A subjective, numerical representation of a team's strength used by some

handicappers to predict final scores

Tip sheet: A

publication offering gambling-oriented information and advice

The so-called "due factor" has long reigned as perhaps the hoariest myth in sports handicapping.

It was even parodied in an episode of "The Simpsons," when Krusty the Clown famously lost his money betting against the Harlem Globetrotters because he thought the Washington Generals were "due."

It makes another appearance on this weekend's NFL card, as the surprising Green Bay Packers look to extend their hot start by winning and covering the point spread for a fifth consecutive game.

Considering the preseason betting line on Green Bay was over/under 7 1/2 regular-season victories, it might look as if the Packers are due to lose - or at least not cover.

Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D'Amico calls that way of thinking a trap and says he's not falling for it.

D'Amico has made the Packers minus 3 points against Chicago on Sunday one of his four top NFL plays this week. (The line on the game is either 3 or 3 1/2 in Las Vegas, depending on the sports book, so if you do like the Bears and want to fade D'Amico, make sure you get the extra half-point.)

"A lot of people are going to be talking about the due factor with the Packers," D'Amico said. "I can't do it. I'm going to ride the train with Green Bay until it stops."

The dynamics of the game set up favorably for the Packers, D'Amico said. A resurgent Brett Favre has been impressive at quarterback for Green Bay, while the Bears' quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns and nine interceptions.

A noisy home crowd should also work to the Packers' advantage as they look to prove their strong start is no fluke.

"Green Bay knows that , barring injury , they can take this (NFC North) division, and that the Bears, if they get out of their funk, could be their biggest competition," said D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info). "This game is almost like a division championship game for the Packers."

D'Amico also recommends a play on Arizona laying 3 1/2 points against St. Louis, thanks in part to key injuries to Rams quarterback Marc Bulger and running back Steven Jackson. With backup Gus Frerotte expected to take snaps for the Rams, D'Amico's power ratings project an Arizona victory by 6 or 7 points.

The Houston Texans, favored by 5 1/2 points, should handle the Miami Dolphins and their NFL-worst rushing defense, D'Amico said.

"Houston is really a team on the rise," D'Amico said. "Outside of New England, Indianapolis and Dallas, they can compete with anyone in the league."

The Pittsburgh Steelers figure to bounce back from their first loss , to Arizona a week ago , and beat Seattle by more than 5 1/2 points Sunday, D'Amico said.

Contest update

Two first-round matchups are scheduled for today in the Leroy's sports books "Money Talks" football handicapping contest.

From 2 to 3 p.m. at Fitzgeralds in downtown Las Vegas, Marc Lawrence, publisher of the "Playbook" tip sheet, faces handicapper Paul Stone. This segment airs on KENO 1460-AM.

From 7 to 9 p.m. at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Sparks, Lake Tahoe-based gambler James Manos faces a Las Vegas professional sports bettor and blackjack player who goes by the handle "Frank B." This segment airs on KSFN 1140-AM.

Last week Lance Blankenship went 4-3 against the point spread in his seven selections to eliminate Al McMordie (2-5), and Paul Sonner (4-2-1) ousted "Computer Bob" (4-3).

Sonner, owner of the Bully's sports bar chain, said , if he captures the contest's winner-take-all $160,000 prize, he will donate it all to local charities.

Each of the 32 contestants in the single-elimination, bracket-style tournament put up $5,000 to compete, the highest entry fee for a sports handicapping contest in Nevada.

Winners are determined by the better record in seven picks against the spread from the weekend's college and professional football games.

The contestants are 39-39-6 collectively heading into today's matches.