Handicapper: Take advantage of generous point spread, back Kansas State vs. Texas

[clevfan]

Sep. 29, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Ignore revenge factor for Longhorns

Take advantage of generous point spread, back Kansas State vs. Texas

By PAUL STONE
SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL

Texas quarterback Colt McCoy enjoyed a memorable freshman season, with the exception of one game.

The Longhorns still had aspirations of being in the national championship game last November when they arrived in Manhattan, Kan., as 16-point favorites. But they left the "Little Apple" with a bruised psyche, an injured starting quarterback and a 45-42 loss.

McCoy was knocked out of the game on the opening series.

Fast forward 10 months, and Texas gets its opportunity to atone for last year's disappointing defeat.

While many handicappers tend to overuse the revenge motive, I do not give it as much weight, and that partially explains my recommendation to take Kansas State and 141/2 points.

The Longhorns entered this season as co-favorites in the Big 12 South but quickly fell to the second choice as Oklahoma flexed its offensive muscle and Texas showed chinks in its armor.

Perhaps the Longhorns' weakest position area is an inexperienced secondary, which has yet to be totally exposed against a manageable schedule consisting of Arkansas State, Texas Christian, Central Florida and Rice.

Last year, Kansas State then-freshman quarterback Josh Freeman went vertical on the Longhorns' defense, throwing for 323 yards against a secondary featuring three players who would be selected in the NFL Draft, including two first-rounders.

Although I expect the Longhorns to win, I anticipated the number would be closer to 10, so take the generous points.

Other selections for today (home team in CAPS):

• Colorado State (+101/2) over TEXAS CHRISTIAN -- The Rams are riding a 10-game losing streak dating to the middle of last season, including an 0-3 start this season, but have competed gamely against Colorado, California and Houston.

Colorado State quarterback Caleb Hanie is an experienced quarterback who leads a multifaceted offense featuring bruising tailback Kyle Bell and a host of capable receivers.

The Horned Frogs still are struggling to find their offensive identity. They registered only 21 points and 250 total yards last week against a weak Southern Methodist defense that had given up lows of 31 points and 516 yards in its first three games.

• Ohio State (-231/2) over MINNESOTA -- The Gophers' ugly 1-3 start under first-year coach Tim Brewster is not the fault of an offense that has averaged 487.5 yards per game to rank No. 15 in the nation.

The defenses of Minnesota's four opponents to date -- Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), Florida Atlantic and Purdue -- have little in common with an Ohio State unit that promises to place significant pressure on Gophers redshirt freshman quarterback Adam Weber, who has been a turnover machine.

The Buckeyes are starting to hit stride offensively and should rack up lots of points against a Gophers defense ranking 120th out of 120 Division I teams -- if one includes Western Kentucky -- at 543.3 yards per game.

• NEW MEXICO (+4) over Brigham Young -- The Lobos are an experienced team with 18 returning starters and should embrace the home underdog role against rival Brigham Young.

BYU has lost both of its road games this season, falling to UCLA and Tulsa.

The Cougars have been impressive in both of their home games, posting convincing victories over Arizona and Air Force.

Lobos tailback Rodney Ferguson has exceeded 100 yards rushing in six of New Mexico's past seven games.

• Washington State-ARIZONA (Over 591/2) -- Arizona has done an about-face philosophically under new offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. Through four games, the Wildcats and veteran quarterback Willie Tuitama have thrown the ball on 163 of their 237 offensive plays (69 percent).

Washington State, which possesses a seasoned passer in Alex Brink, also throws the ball, as 154 of the Cougars' 287 offensive plays (54 percent) have been passes.

Neither team defends the pass particularly well, as Arizona ranks No. 89 in the NCAA in passing defense (259.3 yards per game) and Washington State ranks No. 101 (274 yards per game).

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 13-6-1

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegas Sports Authority (vegassportsauthority.com) is providing weekly college football analysis for the Review-Journal this season.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

I just don't know what to do with that Kansas State game -- I think Ron Prince is a good coach and he will gameplan the hell out of this--play field position and make Texas go long. Texas has their rival Okla on deck.

I might take Robin's usual advice and play the Texas under-- I think Kansas State's defense can hang.

[robin]

i wouldnt play that under buzzy..


take kstate or pass imo.

take a hard look at auburn while your at it.

[Mr Falcone]

Originally Posted by robin

i wouldnt play that under buzzy..


take kstate or pass imo.

take a hard look at auburn while your at it.

There ya have it.Nice job Robin. That K St when huge for the book, along with Auburn....My guess is last Sat was the biggest day yet of this college season, was for me anyway.

Anyone been wating on $ from your books call now, casue most should have had a monster week. If they didnt, well nothin to be said, they should be selling pizza's instead

Best of luck