UFC 75: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 75: Champion vs. Champion
Saturday, September 8th, 3 PM ET, 9 PM ET/PT via tape delay on Spike TV
O2 Arena, London
Weigh-in: Friday, September 7th, 10:30 AM ET (covered by ESPNEWS and UFC.com)


The favorite run continues in the UFC, as Partick Cote and Randy Couture were the only underdogs to end up victorious at UFC 74. This follows two UFC events completely swept by the favorites, reversing the early summer trend of underdog-friendly betting cards.

While this installment of the Ultimate Fighting Championship will be aired for free on SpikeTV, it will be tape-delayed for North American viewers, as it is part of UFC's recent push to go international, this time in London.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Bookmaker.com.

Anthony "The Crush" Torres(5-0-0) vs. Jess "The Joker" Liaudin(11-8-0)
Current Odds: Liaudin -115; Torres -115


Liaudin submitted Dennis Siver back in UFC 70, but has an unaccomplished career otherwise. Torres is undefeated but untested, last having beaten Pat Healy at Fight Night 6. I am inclined to go with Torres, though the long layoff and lack of competition make this a lean only.

Naoyuki Kotani (17-6-5)vs. Dennis Siver (10-4-0)
Current Odds: Kotani -175; Siver +145


Siver was submitted by Jess Liaudin in his debut at UFC 70. Kotani also lost his UFC debut, being decisioned by Thiago Tavares in UFC Fight Night 9. Neither has much experience or has shown anything particularly noteworthy, so this fight is a pass for me, with a lean towards Kotani. Prediction: Kotani, 3rd round submission.

Tomasz Drwal (14-1-0) vs. Thiago Silva (10-0-0)
Current Odds: Silva -325; Drwal +265


Drwal is out of Polish MMA, debuting in the UFC after fighting in very small promotions against unknowns. Silva is out of the Brazilian Chute Box camp, and won his debut in UFC 71. While Silva is the likely winner, I can't recommend laying money against a young and relatively unknown fighter like Drwal at these odds. Prediction: Silva, 1st round TKO.

Gleison Tibau (14-4-0) vs. Terry Etim (10-0-0)
Current Odds: Tibau -175; Etim +145


This bout features two submission specialists. 9 of Etim's 10 wins have ended by submission. Tibau is better-rounded, and has a significant edge in experience. I lean towards Etim, although he hasn't really been tested yet and could be due for a letdown. Prediction: Etim by decision.

Houston "The Assassin" Alexander (7-1-0) vs. Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara (11-5-0)
Current Odds: Alexander -165; Sakara +135


Sakara's last 3 UFC fights have all ended in the first round - unfortunately, 2 of them were losses for "Legionarius". Alexander is coming off a 1st round TKO of Keith Jardine in his UFC debut back in May. Alexander won't have to worry about launching his hip-hop career when he beats Sakara convincingly on Saturday night. Prediction: Alexander, 1st round TKO.

Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (12-3-0) vs. Paul "Relentless" Taylor (8-1-1)
Current Odds: Davis -200; Taylor +160


British Paul Taylor will be receiving the hometown support here, but that might not be enough to overcome Davis, a talented striker who has won nine straight since the TUF 2 finale. Taylor debuted in the UFC the last time it was held across the pond (UFC 70 in April), winning in a 3rd round TKO. Home field advantage won't be enough here, and I see Davis winning by strikes. Prediction: Davis, 2nd round TKO.

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (22-5-2) vs. Cheick Kongo (10-3-1)
Current Odds: Filipovic -420; Kongo +320


Cro Cop was supposed rise straight to the top upon entering UFC; Gabriel Gonzaga had different plans. Kongo holds a decent advantage in size, 2" in height and 20 pounds, and has been moving up the UFC ranks quickly. Unfortunately, he has the misfortune of facing Filipovic, who should bounce back strongly after his fluke loss to Gonzaga. Cro Cop is still an elite fighter, and laying 4-to-1 with this caliber fighter against a much less experience opponent is quite reasonable.

Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (3-0-0) vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping (13-0-0)
Current Odds: Hamill +200; Bisping -250


This bout features two TUF 3 alumni who were highly regarded during their reality TV stints. Hamill has the edge in power and wrestling, but Bisping's experience and all-around talent should give him a substantial edge. While both looked competitive in the early going, Bisping has proven to be the much better fighter during his time in the UFC, and Hamill has shown plenty of weak spots that can be exploited. Prediction: Bisping, 1st round TKO.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (27-6-0) vs. Dan Henderson (22-5-0)
Current Odds: Jackson -135; Henderson +105


This main event marks the true assimilation of PRIDE into the UFC. Henderson is the PRIDE middleweight and welterweight champion, the first person to hold both titles simultaneously. He will look to add UFC Lightweight champion to those accolades, a title Jackson took from Chuck Liddell back in May. Jackson has only lost 3 fights since 2001, falling to Mauricio Rua and twice to Wanderlai Silva. Coincidentally, Henderson's last fight was a win against Silva. This is a battle of two great fighters that is too close to call. I'll lean towards Henderson, with his great wrestling skills, at the plus-money. Prediction: Henderson, 3rd round TKO.

Picks (14-14 -2.55 units; Best Bets: 3-3, -0.60 units)
Houston Alexander -165
Marcus Davis -200
Mirko Filipovic -420
Michael Bisping -250 (Best Bet)

Opinions (17-18 -4.35 units)
Anthony Torres -115
Naoyuki Kotani -175
Thiago Silva -325
Terry Etim +145
Dan Henderson +105

09-06-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-567.html

[WrongSideWarrior]

Nice job as usual Jay.

My Ticket as Follows:

Jackson -140 ***
Etim +145 **
Cro Cop -350 ***
Bisping -220 ****
Sakara +200 **

This is the heaviest I have ever been on a card. Really love these plays. Feel very confident on every fight except the Etim and Sakara fights. Haven't seen to much Etim but what I have seen was good.

I look for Jackson to outbox Henderson and as well as outpower him before putting him away in the middle rounds. Henderson hasn't impressed me in a long time as his victory over Silva does not hold much water with me as Silva obviously was not what he used to be.

Cro Cop is the much better fighter here and it would not shock me to see him try and work this fight to the ground where he holds a huge advantage. (God I thought I would never say Cro Cop had a huge advantage over anyone on the ground but Kongo is a can.)

Bisping will come out jacked in front of his home crowd and beat Hamill to a pulp as he is light worlds beyond him in stand up skills. I like Bisping here by KO but wouldnot be surprised to see him have to grind out a victory.

I thought this Sakara number was high when I originally saw it and it is since down to +135. My personal opinion is both of these guys are cans but I will take 2-1 any day on equally matched fighters who are going to be swinging for the fences.


I wish all of you the best of luck and hope you have a great weekend.

[drunkguy]

i am a little scared, this card seems real chalky to me, which means I will get buried if the dogs bark too loudly

hate the tape delay though, especially on a football Saturday

[WrongSideWarrior]

UFC 75 WEIGH IN RESULTS

Today’s weigh-in results included:

* PRIDE champion Dan Henderson (204 lbs.) vs. UFC champion Quinton Jackson (204 lbs.)
* Michael Bisping (205 lbs.) vs. Matt Hamill (205 lbs.)
* Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (220 lbs.) vs. Cheick Kongo (231 lbs.)
* Marcus Davis (169 lbs.) vs. Paul Taylor (171 lbs.)
* Houston Alexander (203 lbs.) vs. Alessio Sakara (205 lbs.)
* Terry Etim (155 bs.) vs. Gleison Tibau (156 lbs.)
* Tomasz Drwal (204 lbs.) vs. Thiago Silva (204 lbs.)
* Dennis Siver (154 lbs.) vs. Naoyuki Kotani (155 lbs.)
* Jess Liaudin (170 lbs.) vs. Anthony Torres (170 lbs.)

[Don King's Barber]

I'm on the dogs: Hamill, Kongo, Henderson, and Sakara

[littleogre]

So far i like cro and rampage but i have a question. Is bisping hammil really that big of a mismatch? I'm thinking on betting bisping but isn't there a good chance that hammil will just take him down and rough him up? This fight comes down to 1 simple question in my my mind can bisping do anything once hammil takes him down?

[Rod Tidwell]

Does anyone know if I can watch this live somehow...PPV or via the web? I can't watch this stuff on delay....what is this amatuer hour?

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by littleogre

So far i like cro and rampage but i have a question. Is bisping hammil really that big of a mismatch? I'm thinking on betting bisping but isn't there a good chance that hammil will just take him down and rough him up? This fight comes down to 1 simple question in my my mind can bisping do anything once hammil takes him down?

IMO Hammils wrestling is getting way to much credit. Guy was a Division 3 champ which in my book does not hold much weight. I think he may get a takedown or two but he will have trouble holding Bisping down which will force him to stand and get KO'ed.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by WrongSideWarrior

Nice job as usual Jay.

My Ticket as Follows:

Jackson -140 ***
Etim +145 **
Cro Cop -350 ***
Bisping -220 ****
Sakara +200 **

God this card is going shitty for me so far. Etim gets taken down at will and Cro Cop looks like he left his heart in Japan. Hopefully I can make the big comeback and get W's out of Bisping and Jackson.

[BettingProphets]

Cro Cop LOST????

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by BettingProphets

Cro Cop LOST????

Ya and Bisping should have too...

I just got a major gift.

[Oddessa]

Spoilers and PBP thread of entire card ............

BettorMMA ~ View topic - UFC 75 Play BY Play *Spoilers*


Lets go Jax....

[WrongSideWarrior]

Jackson wins the Unanimous Decision. Thanks for throwing up the play by play over there Oddessa. I like reading the opinions. Have a good weekend guys. Take care.

[littleogre]

Guys Bisping is a fraud if i ever saw one. Sure he was 14-0 comeing into the fight but who the heck did he beat? I'll tell you who a bunch of cans. Frankly he was dominated tonight as hammil had a hard time keeping him on the ground but clearly won the stand up. Maybe he won the 2nd round but hammil clearly won the 1st in 3rd. I sure hope these guys have a rematch outside the uk because i will pound hammil. Another obsevation on my part is crocop is done as a serious contender.

[littleogre]

Oh and judgeing by his post fight comments he has the class of a fart.

[drunkguy]

Cro Cop costs me once again

he has not looked good in the ufc at all

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

Cro Cop costs me once again

he has not looked good in the ufc at all

I'd like to see him fight Liddell at 205. Liddell loves to be charged at and Cro Cop loves to bring it. Mirko just can not fight when the pressure is put on him. Still one of the best when he is fighting guys his size....I wouldn't count him out yet.