UFC 73: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 72 brought the run of underdogs in recent UFC PPVs to a crashing halt. Favorites swept the somewhat disappointing card, although many feel Clay Guida was robbed and both Yushin Okami and Hector Ramirez came in with puzzlingly ineffective game plans. The UFC 73 matchups are much improved from the previous few events, featuring two title bouts and a horde of big-name talent.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Belmont.com:

Mark Bocek (4-0-0) vs. Frank "The Answer" Edgar (6-0-0)
Current Odds: Bocek +190, Edgar -240

This is a battle of two undefeated up-and-comers in the MMA world. Both have put together short records in lesser promotions. Bocek is an accomplished grappler, with three of his four wins coming via first round submission. Frankie Edgar is a wrestler whose only UFC experience is beating Tyson Griffin by unanimous decision back in February during UFC 67, Griffin's only loss to date. While Edgar is the better fighter on paper, Bocek has yet to be tested and I would avoid weighing a single decision against Griffin too heavily in Edgar's favor. Slight lean towards Bocek as a decent underdog. Prediction: Bocek, 2nd round submission.

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle (22-14-5) vs. Jason "The Gizzard" Gilliam (9-1-0)
Current Odds: Lytle -450, Gilliam +300

Lytle has had little success in the UFC, going only 2-6 in the octagon but getting a lot of fights under his belt in other promotions. Gilliam stepped in just a week ago in place of an injured Drew Fickett, and is moving up in weight for this bout at welterweight. Gilliam has little chance here, but the line is a bit steep to make a play on this fight. Prediction: Lytle, 2nd round submission.

Diego "The Octopus" Saraiva (9-4-1) vs. Jorge Gurgel (10-2-0)
Current Odds: Saraiva +190, Gurgel -240

Both are submission fighters and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts, with a combined 17 submission wins between them. Gurgel was a contestant on TUF2 and now trains with Rich Franklin. Saraiva's four losses have all come by decision. This should be a very technical bout, although I expect Gurgel's superior standup to be the difference. Prediction: Gurgel, 2nd round submission.

Mike Nickels (5-1-0) vs. Stephan "American Psycho" Bonnar (9-4-0)
Current Odds: Bonnar -600, Nickels +400

Both fighters are reality-show alumni, with Bonnar appearing on the debut season of TUF and Nickels following in season 3. While Bonnar has gotten a lot of attention and is a fan favorite, he is only 3-3 in the octagon, losing twice to Forrest Griffin and once to Rashad Evans, all by decision. This is also Bonnar's comeback fight after a 9-month suspension for a positive steroids test. While Bonnar is a well-deserved favorite, there are enough question marks about him for me to take a shot with Mike Nickels at what I see as a generous price due to Bonnar's name recognition. Prediction: Nickels, 1st round submission

Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (27-12-0) vs. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (29-4-1)
Current Odds: Herring +525, Nogueira -825

Nogueira is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert, former PRIDE champion, and currently one of the top heavyweights in the world. Herring should have a size/reach advantage and is a well-rounded fighter. These fighters have met twice before in PRIDE, with Nogueira winning both - once by 2nd round submission, and once by unanimous decision. Nogueira will likely win the third as well, but Herring's size and experience gives him a puncher's chance and worth a gamble at huge odds. Prediction: Nogueira, 3rd round submission.

Hermes Franca (18-5-0) vs. Sean "Muscle Shark" Sherk (31-2-1)
Current Odds: Franca +215, Sherk -275

Franca has been on an incredible run, winning his last 8 fights, including winning and successfully defending the WEC Lightweight Championship. His last loss came back in 2005, but his opposition since has been less than elite. Sherk's only 2 losses have come against former champions Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. He has not fought since winning the title back in October due to a torn rotator cuff. Sherk's experience and superior ground game should give him the edge. Prediction: Sherk, 2nd round TKO.

Rashad "Sugar" Evans (10-0-0) vs. Tito "Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (15-5-0)
Current Odds: Evans -115, Ortiz -115

Evans is a light heavyweight contender who is undefeated in MMA competition. Ortiz has stepped out of the spotlight lately due to his rematch loss to Chuck Liddell. Ortiz gets the experience advantage, having been in MMA since 1997 and having fought a virtual who's who of MMA fighters. Both have excellent ground games and conditioning, and this should be a battle. Tito's size advantage and experience should give him the edge and is worth a wager as a pick 'em. Prediction: Ortiz, 2nd round TKO.

Alvin "Kid" Robinson (8-1-0) vs. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian (5-3-0)
Current Odds: Robinson +235, Florian -295

Robinson is a newcomer to the UFC, but not to MMA; he has accumulated 8 submission wins against just 1 TKO loss in smaller events, and is experienced in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Florian is a TUF1 contestant, though he is just 4-2 in the UFC and appeared on only one pay-per-view event (a failed bid for the Lightweight Championship against Sean Sherk last October). Florian hasn't faced a whole lot of tough competition and both fighters are accomplished BJJ practitioners. Robinson is worth a lean here as a newcomer at nice odds. Predicition: Robinson, 1st round submission.

Nate "The Great" Marquardt (25-6-2) vs. Anderson "The Spider" Silva (18-4-0)
Current Odds: Marquardt +130, Silva -160

Marquardt is an accomplished BJJ fighter and 7-time Pancrase champion. Silva is the UFC Middleweight Champion and has only one loss since 2004, a disqualification against Yushin Okami. I give the style edge to Marquardt's BJJ, though Silva is also accomplished in BJJ and Muay Thai. This is a close match and I will lean towards the underdog in what looks to be a toss-up fight. Prediction: Marquardt, 3rd round submission.

Picks (YTD: 11-7 -0.25 units; Best Bets: 3-2, +0.75)
Mike Nickels +400
Heath Herring +525
Sean Sherk -275
Tito Ortiz -115 (Best Bet)

Opinions (YTD: 14-13 -2.35 units)
Mark Bocek +190
Chris Lytle -450
Jorge Gurgel -240
Alvin Robinson +235
Nate Marquardt +130

07-06-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-529.html

[WrongSideWarrior]

This was taken from a previous post I put in the Tito Ortiz thread... Anybody else have their picks in yet?

For those who are casual MMA fans then I recommend buying this show. Three great main fights with the debut of Hevayweight Minotauro Noguiera who has been one of the top fighters in Japan for many years.

I like Tito on this show. I think he and Rashad are similar fighters but Tito's skills are just much more refined than the younger Rashads.

Sherk should get the win over Franca but the good numbers have left him already. (Sherk opened -180, Currently -260)

I think Silva KO's Marquardt as his stand up skills are much better than Nate The Greats. Nate may get a takedown or two but I don't think he has the gas tank to hang with Silva.

Also played a parlay on :

Bonnar
Florian
Gurgel

Good luck to all of you this weekend.

[littleogre]

Originally Posted by WrongSideWarrior

This was taken from a previous post I put in the Tito Ortiz thread... Anybody else have their picks in yet?

I am undecided but i remember skilled graplers use to always give silva fits back in his pride days. Honestly though i do not know a lot about marquart (sp?) so i will likely pass on that one. I have evans at +115 locked it in a few weeks back Evans is one his way up and tito despite his young age seems to be in the twilight of his career. Save for his domination of ken he has not had a impressive victory in a very long time. I also have the shark. Didn't get the opening odds but luckily got a little better then -260. I just think he will be able to take franca down and control him. Minatour should make easy work of herring but i am undecided about laying -750. I'll probably take the plunge though as herring does of a punchers chance but in all honesty the 2 fighters are in diffrent classes.

[littleogre]

oh and i am probably cursing the bet but i like florian as my best bet.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by littleogre

Minatour should make easy work of herring but i am undecided about laying -750. I'll probably take the plunge though as herring does of a punchers chance but in all honesty the 2 fighters are in diffrent classes.

I'd stay away from the -750.. Weird things happen when guys fight their 1st UFC fights. The safer chalk play is Bonnar IMO.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by WrongSideWarrior

I'd stay away from the -750.. Weird things happen when guys fight their 1st UFC fights.

yea, I also hate laying chalk on guys that have met before, especially since herring was able to take minotauro to a decision even though it was 6 years ago.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

yea, I also hate laying chalk on guys that have met before, especially since herring was able to take minotauro to a decision even though it was 6 years ago.

I loved that original fight. I dont mind chalk but this situation just has an odor to me. I'll be pulling for Nog as I have been very successful playing him over the years but this is just a spot I prefer to stay away from. Good luck though if you do play it.

[he scores]

You guys have got me scared on the Tito vs Rashad fight. I thought the right odds (my odds) for the fight should have been Tito +180 and Rashad -180. So obviously I bet heavy on Rashad at a pick'em. Now that most people in this thread seem to like Tito, I'm getting nervous. I'm thinking I might have made the wrong choice. Oh well... we'll find out soon enough.

[Rod Tidwell]

anyone know where i can find the results of the early fights?

[Oddessa]

Frankie Edgar (154.5) vs. Mark Bocek (154.5)

R1 – A quick exchange, then Bocek shoots. Edgar sprawls, clinch, then trading again. Edgar catches Bocek, who wobbles, but doesn’t fall. Another Bocek shoot and Edgar sprawl. Bocek nails Edgar, who goes down, but bounces back up. Edgar pushes Bocek to the fence. The Canadian takes guard, but Edgar is controlling him with powerful ground-and-pound in half guard. Edgar stands up and out. Back to standing. Bocek is quickly losing his form and Edgar’s is breaking through with combos. Bocek shoots again, and it’s North-South. Edgar scrambles into side mount. Bocek turtles, and Edgar has him finished. Referee John Shorle steps in.

Frankie Edgar def. Mark Bocek - TKO (Referee Stoppage – Strikes) 4:55 R1
--------------------

Chris Lytle (169.5) vs. Jason Gilliam (171)

R1 - Lytle lands with his opening combo, and Gilliam goes down from a missed kick. Lytle flys into his guard with punches, then falls back for a leg lock Gilliam escapes. Lytle back into Gilliam’s guard, then moves easily to side control. Lytle latches on a reverse triangle choke from North-South and the crowd goes nuts. Lytle also has an armlock working in the front. Gilliam is overwhelmed and taps out. Two subs at once for an aggressive Ltyle.

Chris Lytle def. Jason Gilliam - Tapout (Triangle Choke) 2:15 R1

[BettingProphets]

Lights out baby

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Joey. Hope all's good.

[Oddessa]

Jorge Gurgel (155) vs. Diego Saraiva (155)

R1 - They feel each other out. Gurgel throws with some heat, but hasn’t connected yet. A clinch and Saraiva lands some knees that convinces Gurgel to let go. Gurgel is frenetic with his punches, Saraiva is countering. A clinch and Saraiva goes to guard and ties Gurgel up. Saraiva tries to spin off the fence and Gurgel finds and opening for some head punches. Gurgel backs out and ushers Saraiva to stand. Gurgel goes on the attack, but is stopped by the bell. Gurgel’s round for Octagon control.

[Oddessa]

R3 – Gurgel is the more battered of the pair, but pushes forward nonetheless. Gurgel with a stiff left jab. Saraiva answers with a jab of his own, and both are throwing overhands with moderate success with Gurgel pulling off the occasional leg kick in between. Saraiva shoots and is stuffed, but manages to his back with Gurgel in his guard. Gurgel stacks Saraiva, but there’s not much connection. Fifteen seconds to go and its back on its feet, but no fireworks here. Another round that will be close on the cards. Saraiva appears to have won the “effective striking” portion looking at Gurgel’s face, but Gurgel pushed the action throughout to garner "Octagon control."

Jorge Gurgel def. Diego Saraiva - Unanimous Decision (30-27 all)

Portions of the crowd are booing, but Gurgel turna it around with his speech.

[Oddessa]

Frankie Edgar (154.5) vs. Mark Bocek (154.5)

R1 – A quick exchange, then Bocek shoots. Edgar sprawls, clinch, then trading again. Edgar catches Bocek, who wobbles, but doesn’t fall. Another Bocek shoot and Edgar sprawl. Bocek nails Edgar, who goes down, but bounces back up. Edgar pushes Bocek to the fence. The Canadian takes guard, but Edgar is controlling him with powerful ground-and-pound in half guard. Edgar stands up and out. Back to standing. Bocek is quickly losing his form and Edgar’s is breaking through with combos. Bocek shoots again, and it’s North-South. Edgar scrambles into side mount. Bocek turtles, and Edgar has him finished. Referee John Shorle steps in.

Frankie Edgar def. Mark Bocek - TKO (Referee Stoppage – Strikes) 4:55 R1
--------------------

Chris Lytle (169.5) vs. Jason Gilliam (171)

R1 - Lytle lands with his opening combo, and Gilliam goes down from a missed kick. Lytle flys into his guard with punches, then falls back for a leg lock Gilliam escapes. Lytle back into Gilliam’s guard, then moves easily to side control. Lytle latches on a reverse triangle choke from North-South and the crowd goes nuts. Lytle also has an armlock working in the front. Gilliam is overwhelmed and taps out. Two subs at once for an aggressive Lytle.

Chris Lytle def. Jason Gilliam - Tapout (Triangle Choke) 2:15 R1

----------------
Jorge Gurgel (155) vs. Diego Saraiva (155)

R1 - They feel each other out. Gurgel throws with some heat, but hasn’t connected yet. A clinch and Saraiva lands some knees that convinces Gurgel to let go. Gurgel is frenetic with his punches, Saraiva is countering. A clinch and Saraiva goes to guard and ties Gurgel up. Saraiva tries to spin off the fence and Gurgel finds and opening for some head punches. Gurgel backs out and ushers Saraiva to stand. Gurgel goes on the attack, but is stopped by the bell. Gurgel’s round for Octagon control.

R2 - The pace has slowed a bit from round one, but Gurgel is continuing to throw like it's his last punch. Gurgel connects when he catches Saraiva’s right leg, then follows up with a flush left hook a few seconds later. Saraiva answers with a highlight reel one-two-three. It’s now a war. Saravia jumps to guard and Gurgel slams him for good measure. Saraiva goes for a leglock from his back, but it goes back to its feet. Gurgel finishes strong in the clinch with uppercuts. This is a close one to call, and I have a feeling the judges will be split.

R3 – Gurgel is the more battered of the pair, but pushes forward nonetheless. Gurgel with a stiff left jab. Saraiva answers with a jab of his own, and both are throwing overhands with moderate success with Gurgel pulling off the occasional leg kick in between. Saraiva shoots and is stuffed, but manages to his back with Gurgel in his guard. Gurgel stacks Saraiva, but there’s not much connection. Fifteen seconds to go and its back on its feet, but no fireworks here. Another round that will be close on the cards. Saraiva appears to have won the “effective striking” portion looking at Gurgel’s face, but Gurgel pushed the action throughout to garner "Octagon control."

Jorge Gurgel def. Diego Saraiva - Unanimous Decision (30-27 all)

Portions of the crowd are booing, but Gurgel turns it around with his speech.

-------------------

Stephan Bonnar vs. Mike Nickels

R1 – Nickels catches Bonnar’s right leg and gets the takedown. Nickels to mount, but Bonnar slides his arms under, reverses and takes Nickel’s back. Nickels twists halfway into Bonnar’s guard, and Bonnar grabs his arm and pull it behind Nickel’s back for what looks similar to a Kimura. Bonnar leans his body weight onto the trapped arm and gets his hooks back in. Nickels frees the arm and Bonnar secures the rear-naked choke for the tapout.

Stephan Bonnar def. Mike Nickels - Tapout (Rear-Naked Choke) 2:14 R1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chalk city. You guys cleaning up?

[Oddessa]

I would be soooooooooo pissed if I bet Herring. Ref saved Nogs career...

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (240.5) vs. Heath Herring (259)

R1 – Clinch and Nogueira gets throw to side control in under ten seconds. Herring backdoors out and top his feet. Herring shrugs off the linch. Nog landing lead lefts with Herring countering. Nog stumbled Herring and lands a follow-up flying knee. Herring is cut amd looking stilted compare to the fresh Nogueira. Nog gets clinch and underhooks. Herring drops Nog with a left high kick and it’s a flash knockout. Herring goes in, then backs out. Referee Yves Lavigne makes Nog stand. Nog is wobbly and Herring attacks. Nog goes for a messy takedown and again Herring backs out and Lavigne makes him stand. The bell and the referee saves a fairly rocked Nog.

R2 – Nogueira has recovered and starts his onslaught again. Nog with the takedown to mount. Herring flips and Nog goes for rear-naked. Herring flips into Nog’s guard and it moves back to its feet. Nog the aggressor with lead lefts, pushing Herring to cage. Clinch and Nog with knees, then a takedown along the cage. Nog finishes dominant in side control.

R3 – Herring swelling under both eyes. A few trades and Nogueira with easy double-leg takedown to side control. Herring turtles and Nog secures a modified rear-naked. Herring forces out and into Nog’s guard. Nog with Kimura from bottom. Herring flees and Nog grabs Herring on his knees, then takes his back again. Herring out and stumbles trying to lunge forward with a punch. They’re standing and Herring reverses Nog on the fence. Back to center, Herring’s face mangled. A minute left. Herring is exhausted. Nog should take this one 29-28.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira def. Heath Herring - Unanimous Decision (29-28 all)

[James Trout]

Following this on Sherdog, I think there's a fight missing. What's happened to the Alvin Robinson vs. Kenny Florian fight?

UFC 73 "Stacked" Play-by-Play

EDIT: Hmmm. Robinson-Florian is the last fight of the night? I didn't expect that.

[Rod Tidwell]

wow...it has been all favorites tonight...