UFC 72: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 72: Victory Saturday, June 16, 1 PM ET (3 PM PPV start) Odyssey Arena, Northern Ireland

Weigh-in results (Friday, June 15):

Rich Franklin (185) vs Yushin Okami (185) Forrest Griffin (204) vs Hector Ramirez (204) Jason MacDonald (185) vs Rory Singer (186) Tyson Griffin (155) vs Clay Guida (155) Marcus Davis (169) vs Jason Tan (169) Eddie Sanchez (234) vs Colin Robinson (238) Ed Herman (186) vs Scott Smith (185) Dustin Hazelett (169) vs Steve Lynch (170)

Saturday's UFC pay-per-view comes to us from Belfast. For American bettors, this means you're watching in the afternoon, with a start time of 3 PM ET. Tuesday's Ultimate Fight Night on SpikeTV was the start of an exciting run for UFC fans. This weekend's pay-per-view is followed next weekend by The Ultimate Fighter 5 finale featuring the highly anticipated rematch between B.J. Penn and Jens Pulver. Two weeks later comes another pay-per-view with an unusually strong card, including two title bouts.

As has been typical, the last UFC pay-per-view brought us yet another upset in the main event, although Quinton Jackson as an underdog was more influenced by his lack of name recognition than his actual experience. Unfortunately, the linesmakers have become more and more cautious with UFC offerings. For this weekend's pay-per-view, the first lines really only came out on Thursday, and many shops hadn't even opened up the majority of the card as of Friday afternoon. While the Franlin-Okami bout has been widely available for some time, the rest of the bouts have been virtually untouched by oddsmakers. UFC markets fluctutate widely after opening, so it seems as if the linesmakers are trying to save themselves the headache of opening up early. This isn't a good trend for UFC bettors, as they lose the benefits of aggressive line shopping on the early numbers.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Belmont.com:

Dustin Hazelett (8-3-0) vs. Stevie "Smiling Assassin" Lynch (4-0-0) Current Odds: Hazelett -260; Lynch +200

Haezelett is only a college sophomore, but is experienced in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. He was unimpressive in his UFC debut, being submitted in the first round by Tony Desouza. Stevie Lynch is a local talent, fighting out of Northern Ireland, so he can expect strong crowd support. His experience is very limited, but he has a punchers chance of winning this fight, especially as a big underdog. Prediction: Lynch, 2nd round TKO.

Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith (11-3-0) vs. Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (12-5-0) Current Odds: Smith +100, Herman -130.

This is another battle of reality-show stars, with Smith appearing on TUF 4 and Herman losing in the finals of TUF 3. Smith has the advantage in punching and will look to keep this fight in stand-up. Herman received a lot of attention on TUF 3 but hasn't lived up to that expectation, going only 1-2 in the UFC. He is much more comfortable as a submission fighter or in ground-and-pound, and should be dominant on the ground. Herman has the style match up to his advantage, and is likely underrated after his early UFC losses. The line is a lot shorter than expected and worth a wager. Prediction: Herman, 1st round submission.

Eddie "The Manic Hispanic"Sanchez (6-1-0) vs. Colin "Big C" Robinson (8-2-0) Current Odds: Sanchez -185, Robinson +155

We last saw Sanchez being knocked out by Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic back in UFC 67, as one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history. Robinson is another relatively unknown Irish fighter. Both are big punchers, and this fight should be a stand-up brawl. Sanchez is the deserved favorite, but Robinson has a punchers chance. The line looks close enough to keep me from betting this one. Prediction: Sanchez, 1st round KO.

Jason Tan (4-1-0) vs. Marcus "The Celtic Warrior" Davis (11-3-0) Current Odds: Tan +300, Davis, -450

The last of the local talent recruited for this event, Tan fights out of Liverpool, England and has a very thin record in smaller promotions. Marcus Davis comes to us via TUF 2. He is an experienced boxer but has some weaknesses in grappling. Davis, however, should be able to control this fight and cruise to an easy win. Prediction: Davis, 2nd round KO.

Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (21-7-0) vs. Tyson Griffin (8-1-0) Current Odds: Guida +160, Griffin -200

Although Guida is only 1-1 in the UFC, he has a lot of fight experience. Both are highly experienced wrestlers, although Griffin will likely have the edge in stand-up exchanges. This fight is closer than it looks on paper and Guida is worth a shot at the current odds. Prediction: Guida by decision.

Rory "Outburst" Singer (11-6-0) vs. Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (18-8-0) Singer +190, MacDonald -240

Singer is 2-1 overall in the UFC since being featured on TUF 3, although his wins were against lesser opponents; MacDonald is coming off a loss to Rich Frankin (where I backed him as a Best Bet). MacDonald is being underrated here, and Singer is a big step down in class from Franklin. Both fighters are well rounded, but MacDonald should be able to outlast Singer. Prediction: MacDonald, 3rd round submission.

Hector "Sick Dog" Ramirez (6-2-1) vs. Forrest Griffin (13-4-0) Current Odds: Ramirez +160, Griffin -200.

Ramirez has appeared in UFC only once before, a loss to James Irvin in UFC 65. Griffin was the TUF 1 champion, but he has lost 2 of his last 3 in the UFC (against Keith Jardine and Tito Ortiz), and he will have to bounce back from a TKO that seemed to take a lot out of him mentally in his last fight. Griffin will have the advantage in stand-up, while Ramirez's best chance to win will be to take the fight to the mat. With a decent game plan, Ramirez can win this fight. Prediction: Ramirez, 3rd round submission.

Rich "Ace" Franklin (21-2-0) vs. Yushin Okami (20-3-0) Current Odds: Franklin -205, Okami +165

This should be an excellent match-up with Franklin being superior on his feet and Okami a terrific ground fighter. Both have compiled impressive records, although Franklin has faced far more experienced opponents. If Okami can keep the fight on the ground, he has an opportunity win, although Franklin has shown himself to be a smart and versatile fighter. This line is a little too juicy to pass on Okami. Predcition: Okami, 3rd round TKO.

Picks (YTD: 9-5 -0.25 units; Best Bets: 2-2, -0.25)
Ed Herman -130 (Best Bet)
Clay Guida +160
Jason MacDonald -240
Yushin Okami +165

Opinions (YTD: 12-11 -2.35 units)
Stevie Lynch +200
Eddie Sanchez -185
Marcus Davis -450
Hector Ramirez +160

06-15-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-516.html

[lebowski_]

Year of the Dog

I am starting to look at Jens beating Penn next week.. How I don't know how ... but seems BJ cant beat him at anything

Pulver 1-0 in octagon
Pulver 1-0 in Coaching
Pulver 1-0 in ping pong


Scott Smith X Mcdonald for Saturday

[Oddessa]

Nice writeup as usual. I see 5-3 ion your future, but the ball seems to be on the fence. Possibly 4-4. Depends if Herman eats his Wheaties.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Oddessa

Nice writeup as usual. I see 5-3 ion your future, but the ball seems to be on the fence. Possibly 4-4. Depends if Herman eats his Wheaties.

hey Oddessa how come no one is putting lines up?



too many books getting beat up on the early moves?


seemed like a lot more books were carrying them a month or two ago, and now a bunch dropped off, and odn;t put anything up until day of


Matchbook just got their markets up, for anyone who's interested...

[Oddessa]

think it ahs everything to do with it being a shitty card, not on don best, and in Ireland

Early moves havent been slam dunk anywhere. Books should have won good on last couple UFCs. So many noobs betting bad sides it should be criminal to accept their bets.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Forrest Griffin x 2
Tyson Griffin x 3
Rich Franklin x 1
Marcus Davis x 2
Colin Robinson x 1

Card looks chalky to me. Robinson is only dog worth a shot for me and it's a small one due to his age and level of experience. Good luck to all.

[littleogre]

I really like okami myself. At + money i think he is worth a shot. If he can avoid being koed he will take the fight to the ground and win.

[drunkguy]

as much as people say this is a weak card, I think we will see some real good fights tomorrow

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

as much as people say this is a weak card, I think we will see some real good fights tomorrow

After really looking the card over I have to agree. I think it will be much like Tuesday night. Tons of action.

[drunkguy]

Dustin Hazelett vs. Steven Lynch
Round 1
Dustin Hazelett catches Steven Lynch with a choke at the 2:50 mark of round one.

[drunkguy]

Eddie Sanchez vs. Colin Robinson
Eddie Sanchez defeated Colin Robinson in the second round at 0:32 via TKO (strikes). Robinson won the first frame but had nothing left by the begining of the second period.

[drunkguy]

Eddie Sanchez vs. Colin Robinson
Returning to the UFC for the first time since being fed to Mirko Filipovic, Eddie Sanchez outlasted Colin Robinson despite a troubling first round. Robinson mounted Sanchez several times but the American heavyweight didn't give in, even when faced with a tight armbar with time running down in the first. But Sanchez survived and finished the period by mounting and pounding on Robinson.

The second period saw a different score, as Sanchez needed just 32 seconds end the contest. Connecting with a punching combination, Sanchez drove the local fighter to the octagon canvas, where he again mounted and pounded down strikes before referee Herb Dean called the contest.

[drunkguy]

Marcus Davis vs. Jason Tan
Round 1
Marcus Davis continued his tear, stopping Jason Tan just 75 seconds after the opening bell. Tan had no idea what happened to him after he was knocked out, and held Davis's leg until referee Yves Lavigne pulled him away.

[Oddessa]

Herb Dean gave Sanchez a break.....


Eddie Sanchez beat Colin Robinson

R1 – Immediate clinch and both heavyweights hit the fence in a tangle, exchanging uppercuts. Robinson begins to get the upperhand, and Sanchez slips for a minute, but regains his footing. Both exchanging body shots and knees. They separate and Sanchez is staggering. Robinson plows into him for the takedown and goes to town on Sanchez with punches and elbows from almost every position, including mount. A minute passes, but referee Herb Dean does not stop it, and Robinson eventually gasses. With a minute to go, Sanchez reverses to mount and Robinson just makes it to the bell under a barrage of punishment.

R2 – Takedown by Sanchez who flows to mount on a spent Robinson. The end is quick this time, and a shame, as the Irish fighter should have earned the stoppage himself in round one.

Eddie Sanchez def. Colin Robinson - TKO (Referee Stoppage – Strikes) :32 R2

[Oddessa]

Ed Herman vs. Scott Smith

R1 – Herman shoots and gets clean takedown. Herman can’t hold Smith down, who struggles to his feet. Herman head clinches and delivers multiple body knees, then drops levels for a scoop-up and a second takedown into Smith’s guard. Herman lines up Smith’s head and elbows a huge cut open right over the bridge of his nose. Smith bleeding well into his eyes. Referee Herb Dean asks for a doctor’s opinion. It continues on the ground, but Smith’s face is covered in red. Amazingly, Smith gets a reversal, but a scramble leads to duel heelhooks. Herman takes the round easily.

R2 – Herman with a shoot, but Smith latches on a guillotine. Herman completes the takedown with his head still locked in, but wrestles free. Smith gets to his knees and Herman back mounts for a rear-naked choke. Smith stumbles to ground with Herman in tow, tapping out to the choke with one hook in.

Ed Herman def. Scott Smith – Tapout (Rear-Naked Choke) 2:25 R2

[Oddessa]

FOTY Candidate


Tyson Griffin vs. Clay Guida

R1 – Guida with quick single-leg after Griffin slips. Griffin to his feet, but Guida has the leg and completes the takedown on the fence. There’s some wiggle room and Guida is out. Scramble to its feet, Griffin has Guida’s back a moment, but “the Carpenter” reverse on its feet. They drift to center and Guida lands a good punch, but Griffin sprawls well and gets in a high kick combo. Nice scrambling by both as the round picks up steam to bell. It’s fairly even

R2 – Tie-in at fence. Both are fighting the takedowns explosively. Another trade ensues with Guida firing off a high kick at the tail-end. It hits the mats. Guida tries to work in an ankle lock, playing to the crowd. Up again and Griffin with a suplex, but Guida lands expertly. Guida returns the favor. Another scramble and Guida has a standing Griffin’s back, trying to lock in the rear-naked choke. The pair falls to the mat, Griffin halfway around to making a reversal as the bell sounds. This round was a non-stop battle for position.

R3 – The trading begins again with Griffin highlighting with a solid knee to Guida’s head. Guida shooting for the takedown. Griffin rebuffs. Another shoot and Griffin relents, but not without a fight. Guida working in Griffin’s guard, but Griffin is throwing up hammerfists and upkicks to try and fend him off. Guida now cross-face, almost taking Griffin’s back as he tries to escape. Guida with a flurry into Griffin’s guard at the end. Guida should take it two rounds to one.

Tyson Griffin def. Clay Guida – Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

[Oddessa]

Jason MacDonald (185) vs. Rory Singer (186)

R1 – Clinch on the fence and the wrestle for underhooks. Singer gets the head clinch and fires off knees, dragging MacDonald to the mat with him as he falls back. Singer fends off MacDonald well from his back, getting to his feet when the Canadian misses a diving punch in. MacDonald tries to get it matside again with a single, but Singer stuffs. A scramble and Singer nearly takes MacDonald’s back for the choke. It ends with MacDonald in Singer’s guard. Singer has the triangle locked with no arm across to finish.

R2 – Push to the fence and MacDonald completes the takedown. MacDonald to mount, earning the finish with punches on Singer.

Jason MacDonald def. Rory Singer - TKO (Referee Stoppage – Strikes) 3:18 R2
-------------------

Forrest Griffin (205) vs. Hector Ramirez (204)

R1 – Ramirez earns takedown, briefly passes to side, but backs out and up to standing, obviously preferring to stand. The round plays out here, each tagging the other with punch-kick combos. A mouse forming under his right eye, Griffin adds a little heat behind his at the end of the competitive round, likely swaying the judges.

R2 – It will be a stand-up battle. Griffin is steady with high kicks and punches, but Ramirez is keeping up, at least stamina-wise. Griffin nearly corners Ramirez on the fence with 1:40 to go, but a low blow from Griffin halts the action. Griffin takes the round by staying active, but Ramirez is not out.

R3 – After much of the play has stayed on its feet, Ramirez bum-rushes a takedown, but Griffin bounces to his feet. Griffin keeps the pressure on. The problem is Ramirez can absorb punishment with the best of them so the round drags on. Griffin is eyeing the megatron for the clock numerous times. There is no brilliant finish, but the workhorse Griffin should get the unanimous decision.

Forrest Griffin def. Hector Ramirez – Unanimous Decision (30-27 all)
--------------------------------

Rich Franklin (185) vs. Yushin Okami (185)

R1 – It begins with trading, Franklin the aggressor who can’t find his opening. Okami is deflecting all shots, throwing back, but not landing himself. A clinch on the fence, Franklin has underhooks. Stalemate and referee John McCarthy separates. They continue the dance with little connection from either. Franklin takes it on Octagon control.

[victorygallop]

boring so far

[Oddessa]

Aside from Guida-Tyson this card absolutely sucked. Favs went 8-0 and Boring.........

R2 – Franklin is keeping his pace up, but Okami is again on the defense. Okami clinches again and Franklin immediately changes underhooks. McCarthy steps in again on the fence when the clinch stales. Okami is loosening up a bit more with his counters, but Franklin is still ahead in effort.


R3 – Okami attempts to attack Franklin and the former UFC Champion steps aside and chides him. Okami with his first takedown and he works to mount. Franklin tries to backdoor and wedges his left foot back in. Both up on the fence. Franklin with a throw, but Okami manages to his feet. Okami with standing Kimura to his back. Franklin expertly rolls free and takes the top into half. Even if Okami gets the nod for the third, Franklin has the two preceding.

Franlin 29-28 3x