Fan favorite not sports books' choice: Mayweather minus-180 pick to defeat De La Hoya

[clevfan]

May. 04, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Fan favorite not sports books' choice

Mayweather minus-180 pick to defeat De La Hoya

By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL

Maybe because he plays the role of a trash-talking villain, Floyd Mayweather Jr. has yet to win a majority of public support even while winning all of his fights.

Mayweather invites attention with his brash behavior and impressive boxing skills. But with Oscar De La Hoya in the opposite corner, the betting public pretty much is ignoring "Pretty Boy."

Mayweather is a minus-180 favorite over De La Hoya in their WBC super welterweight title bout Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden. However, the fan favorite no doubt is the underdog.

"I think people genuinely like De La Hoya," MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said. "Mayweather has never captured the fans like De La Hoya has, but really nobody has done that.

"Any fight with De La Hoya is a monster fight. He's the draw."

De La Hoya tickets are being written at a 5-to-1 ratio, Walker said, and the line has plummeted since Mayweather opened as a minus-230 favorite in November.

In what is likely to be the largest-grossing event in boxing history, Mayweather said betting against him is a big mistake.

"I feel tremendous. I'm just ready to fight now," Mayweather said. "I've said what I had to say, and now the physical part comes.

"When you're facing Floyd Mayweather, you're facing the best, period. Oscar's not even an active fighter. He's a part-time fighter."

And that's the dilemma facing De La Hoya's supporters -- the "Golden Boy" might show rust after fighting just once in the past two years.

De La Hoya (38-4, 30 knockouts) ended a 20-month layoff last May by defeating Ricardo Mayorga in six rounds. In his three prior fights, he lost to Bernard Hopkins and Shane Mosley and won a controversial unanimous decision over Felix Sturm.

"Let's be realistic. Here's a guy who realistically lost three of his last four fights," said Leonard Ellerbe, Mayweather's business adviser and strength coach. "Oscar really lost the Sturm fight. We know what happened in the Hopkins fight -- he laid down -- and we know Mosley beat him.

"Floyd goes out and dominates all of his opponents anyway, so it's going to be no different come Saturday night."

Mayweather (37-0, 24 KOs) is moving up to 154 pounds to challenge the bigger and stronger De La Hoya, who has more knockout power with his left hook.

The line is minus-260 that the fight will go 12 full rounds, and that's what handicapper Dave Cokin expects.

"I think this is a fight that goes the distance and nobody gets hurt," Cokin said. "I believe that the decision, whichever way it goes, will be steeped in controversy, and that would ensure a rematch.

"I have a gut feeling that Oscar wins a disputed a decision, and we do this again come November or December. Why not? If they can each make another $25 or $30 million, why leave that on the table?"

Walker said De La Hoya-Mayweather, a matchup expected to exceed $100 million in gross revenue, could generate a Super Bowl-type wagering handle for MGM Mirage books.

"That's how big I think this event will be. This is the fight of the decade," Walker said. "It's been so long since we've had electricity surrounding these boxing matches, and we're going to get it here.

"I'm so happy about this fight. I think we'll write an astounding amount of money. Whether the fight lives up to the hype, I'm not going to say."

The line could drop more if De La Hoya wagers continue to dominate, but most of the bets -- especially the largest ones -- show up in the last 24 hours before the fight.

Both boxers are getting 9-2 odds to win by knockout and 18-1 odds to win by a 12th-round knockout.

Ellerbe said Mayweather, who took the WBC welterweight title with a lopsided decision over Carlos Baldomir in November, has good reason to be confident.

"Oscar's got as much chance of winning this fight as I do of becoming the President of the United States," Ellerbe said. "Betting on Oscar De La Hoya is just taking your money and throwing it right in the garbage."

FIGHT LINES

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR. IS A MINUS-180 FAVORITE OVER OSCAR DE LA HOYA IN SATURDAY'S FIGHT AT THE MGM GRAND GARDEN. HERE ARE THE "KNOCKOUT/DECISION PROPOSITION" LINES AT MGM MIRAGE SPORTS BOOKS:

DE LA HOYA BY DECISION 5-2

DE LA HOYA BY KNOCKOUT 9-2

MAYWEATHER BY DECISION 11-10

MAYWEATHER BY KNOCKOUT 9-2

DRAW 12-1

* ODDS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

[WrongSideWarrior]

ODH all night... His size and speed are being underestimated.

[drunkguy]

Took Mayweather and under

i think he is going to come out a little more aggressive and will be hitting hard with the increase in size and lighter gloves


and a little longshot at 5dimes


Wager type : Straight Bet

Sport : Boxing Other Sports
Selection : Mayweather by KO round 1 5/5/2007 11:00:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +12000 for Game

[Don Eagleston]

Not sure it is relevant, but saw Gotti fight live. Mayweather hasn't been hit yet! The guy is really good. We'll see if the old man can keep pace. The great ones find a way.

[Uncle B]

we gonna have some official, updated fight thread tonight?


fwiw -

Mayweather Jr/De La Hoya draw +1700 for Game

O.De La Hoya wins only +193 for Game

[drunkguy]

BERT SUGAR PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS
by Bert Sugar

STRENGTHS OF BOTH FIGHTERS

OSCAR DE LA HOYA

- De La Hoya is a taller, bigger, stronger boxer who is fighting at a more natural weight than Mayweather who is moving up from welterweight.

- Has a style which will bother Mayweather. His height and the speed of his jab will make it hard for Floyd to throw right-hand leads, one of Floyd's favorite weapons.

- Oscar has very underrated punching power. Anyone who ever fought him will attest to the fact that he hits very hard, especially with his power punch, his left hook.

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR.

- Mayweather is a faster boxer who can work at a fast pace the entire fight, all 12 rounds if necessary.

- Possesses blazing hand speed and power in both hands.

- Floyd uses feints to keep his opponent off-balance and always seems to be one step ahead of his opponent's next move with his radar-like instincts.

- Mayweather is a tremendous body puncher with either hand and is extremely accurate inside, especially with hooks, rarely hitting an opponent on the arms or elbows but usually landing to the pit of the stomach or to his opponent's sides.

WEAKNESSES OF BOTH FIGHTERS

DE LA HOYA

- Older at 34 to Mayweather's 30, De La Hoya has been far less active. Fighting with all the frequency of Halley's Comet, just five times in the past four years.

- In fights that he has lost--discounting his questionable loss to Felix Trinidad--Oscar has shown signs of tiring late in the fight, raising the question of his stamina.

- Speed tends to bother Oscar. In his two losses to Sugar Shane Mosley Oscar had difficulty dealing with the speed of Shane's punches. Floyd's even faster than Shane and throws better combinations.

MAYWEATHER

- Floyd has a tendency to fight with his chin up and exposed, a dangerous flaw his speed has thus far covered up.

- He likes to jump in at opponents with power shots leaving himself open coming in.

- Has a habit of pulling his head back and leaning away from punches, causing him to put all his weight on his back foot and making it more difficult for him to move.

WHAT EACH MUST DO TO WIN

DE LA HOYA

- Must fight at long range, his type of fight, not at close range.

- De La Hoya is a turnaround left-hander, fighting in an orthodox stance so that his power hand is closer to his opponent. He must make use of that left hand, doubling and tripling up with his left jab as he did against Mayorga, then doubling his left hook--which will be effective inasmuch as Floyd leans to his right, making him vulnerable to De La Hoya's left hook.

- He cannot afford to let Mayweather set the early pace, but put some of those early rounds in the bank and save himself for the later rounds when the fight will be decided.

MAYWEATHER

- When De La Hoya throws a punch he is up on his toes, giving Mayweather an open target for his body punches, which will slow De La Hoya down and could be telling in the later rounds.

- Mayweather doesn't want to sit back. Because he has faster hands and De La Hoya tends to be bothered by speed, he has to let his hands go.

- Mayweather should use his ring guile, which has him rolling back, almost daring his opponent, who sees him looking as if he's going away, to hit him. Then, when his opponent is off-balance and reaching for him, Floyd will quickly counter, a move which could be very affective versus De La Hoya.

HBO: Boxing: Event: HBO PAY PER VIEW: OSCAR DE LA HOYA VS. FLOYD MAYWEATHER: BERT SUGAR PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

[cecil]

Small players can get Mayweather at 1.67 right now at SIA.

I have not seen Oscar fight for about 5 years but he looked washed up then to me.
I am taking "the other guy" based solely on that.

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by cecil

Small players can get Mayweather at 1.67 right now at SIA.

I have not seen Oscar fight for about 5 years but he looked washed up then to me.
I am taking "the other guy" based solely on that.

good observation, cause, he looked pretty bland most of the fight, last night..