UFC 70: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 70: Nations Collide Saturday, April 21, 9 PM ET (tape delay) M.E.N. Arena, Manchester, England

Weigh-in: Friday, April 20, 8:30 AM ET

UFC 69 was once again a surprisingly good event. Although lacking superstar talent, Dana White and company really delivered, giving us memorable fights in Huerta vs. Garcia and Koscheck vs. Sanchez, and a huge upset by Matt Serra to take the Welterweight title.

UFC 70 comes to us from across the pond as only the second UFC event to take place in the U.K. It will be broadcast free on Spike TV. However, the time difference means U.S. fans will be watching in tape delay, as the event will actually begin at about 1 PM ET. Some Canadian fans will have the option of purchasing the live pay-per-view, although U.S. citizens will have to follow online or wait for the tape-delayed broadcast.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with lines from 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Edilberto "Crocota" de Oliveira (8-0-1) vs. Paul "Relentless" Taylor (6-1-1) Current Odds: Crocota -240, Taylor +180

The opening bout features two MMA unknowns. Crocota comes to us from Brazil, where he has fought alongside Minotauro Nogueira and Anderson Silva. Taylor will be fighting in front of a home crowd, but it may not be enough to get him the win. Prediction: Crocota, 1st round KO.

Dennis Siver (10-3-0) vs. Jess "The Joker" Liaudin (10-8-0) Current Odds: Siver -130, Laudin +100

Siver has put together a decent record fighting in minor events. He is a well rounded fighter, but his three defeats have all come by submission. Liaudin is experienced, but inconsistent, and shouldn't pose much of a threat here. Prediction: Siver, 1st round KO.

Victor "The Matrix" Valimaki (9-3-0) vs. Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara (10-5-0) Current Odds: Sakara -165, Valimaki +135

Canadian Valikami trains with Jason MacDonald and was last seen on UFC Fight Night 7 in December, where he lost in a split decision to David Heath. Sakara has fought three times in UFC events, but has lost his last two. This should be a slugfest, as both fighters prefer staying on their feet. Neither fighter has been particularly exciting and I see this as coin-toss fight, so I will lean towards the underdog. Prediction: Valimaki, 2nd round KO.

Junior Assuncao (4-2-0) vs. David Lee (5-2-0) Current Odds: Assuncao -180, Lee +150

Both of these fighters are relatively inexperienced, and both are coming off losses in their UFC debuts. Lee has the edge in submissions and taking the fight to the ground will be his best chance of success. Prediction: Lee, 3rd round submission.

Matt "The Real One" Grice (8-0-0) vs. Terry Etim (7-0-0) Current Odds: Grice -105, Etim -125

Grice is a very talented wrestler who will look to ground-and-pound a win. Etim is a submission fighter who has finished all of his fights early. Both are undefeated, but haven't faced any real tough competition. This fight is too close to call, but I will give Grice the matchup edge due to his superior wrestling skills. Prediction: Grice, 2nd round TKO.

Assuerio Silva (12-5-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (9-3-1) Current Odds: Silva -260, Kongo +200

Silva is in the third and last fight of his UFC contract, having lost the first two to Tim Sylvia and Brandon Vera. Kongo entered the UFC in July and won his first two before losing by split decision to Carmelo Marrero in UFC 64. Silva is the better fighter and should have little trouble in this bout. Prediction: Silva, 2nd round submission.

Andrei "Pit Bull" Arlovski (10-5-0) vs. Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum (9-2-1) Current Odds: Arlovski -105, Werdum -125

Arlovski has lost only twice in 5 years, both of those against ex-heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia. Werdum fights out of the Cro Cop gym (where he is Filipovic's BJJ coach), and has compiled a decent record of mostly submission wins. His only two losses have come by decision. While Arlovski has the edge in experience and striking, Werdum should have the advantage on the ground. This seems to be a match where the public is backing Arlovski while the "sharps" are behind Werdum. Nonetheless, I would make Arlovski the favorite here and will make him my best bet for this event. Prediction: Arlovski, 2nd round KO.

Michael "The Count" Bisping (12-0-0) vs. Elvis "The King of Rock and Rumble" Sinosic (8-9-2) Current Odds: Bisping -550, Sinosic +400

Bisping is The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 champion and is a well-rounded fighter, though he could use more experience. He is undefeated in MMA, and of his 12 fights, he has ended nine of them in the first round. He is a talented newcomer who is quickly making his way through the ranks of UFC. Meanwhile, Sinosic is a veteran, having won his UFC debut back in 2001 (UFC 30). Unfortunately, he has lost every UFC match since, bringing his record to 1-5 within the Octagon. He is a decent submission fighter and has plenty of experience in the ring. Bisping will have a large edge when the fighters are on their feet, although Sinosic should be able to at least hold his own on the ground. We've seen a lot of line movement in this fight, with Bisping opening near -350, being bet up to -900, and now settling in at the current odds. Bisping will be in front of a home crowd and I expect him to take this fight quite easily, and this is worth a bet now that the odds have come down a bit. Prediction: Bisping, 1st round TKO.

David Heath (7-0-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (9-0-0) Current Odds: Machida -335, Heath +255

This is a battle of two undefeated newcomers to UFC. Heath is well-rounded and can win by either strike or submission. Machida has put together an impressive MMA resume with wins against Rich Franklin, B.J. Penn, and Stephan Bonnar. He is a karate fighter who has won the majority of his fights by decision. Machida has the edge in experience and likely in the style matchup as well. Prediction: Machida by decision.

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (22-4-2) vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga (7-1-0) Current Odds: Filipovic -475, Gonzaga +380

After facing a punching bag in his UFC debut, Cro Cop now has to step up in class to beat Gonzaga in order to lock-up a title shot against Randy Couture. Gonzaga is a well-rounded fighter, and, while inexperienced, he is 3-0 in UFC bouts. While Cro Cop is considered nearly unbeatable on his feet, he is vulnerable on the ground and Gonzaga will look to use that to his advantage. Gonazaga is no joke, but this fight is coming a little early for him and getting perhaps the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world at less than 5-to-1 is worth a wager. Predicition: Filipovic, 1st round KO.

Picks (YTD: 4-2 +0.80 units; Best Bets: 1-1, dead even)
Dennis Siver -130
Andrei Arlovski -105 (Best)
Michael Bisping -550
Mirko Filipovic -475

Opinions (YTD: 8-4 +7.55 units)
Edilberto Crocota -240
Victor Valimaki +135
David Lee +150
Matt Grice -105
Assuerio Silva -260
Lyoto Machida -335

04-20-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-483.html

[drunkguy]

some Crocota floating around at -200, worth a bet for me at that #

[drunkguy]

here is some good tape


cro cop vs. Sapp



YouTube - Crocop Vs. Sapp


brutal to see such a big man lying on the ground crying

[Don King's Barber]

I just don't understand laying money, let alone chalk, in a fight where you've never seen either guy before...

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Don King's Barber

I just don't understand laying money, let alone chalk, in a fight where you've never seen either guy before...

I have never seen most college basketballs teams play

I bet I couldn't name 5 people on any one MLB roster

I couldn't tell you the name of the QB on most NCAAFB teams



I guess I have to watch tapes on any team before I bet them? Fuck, I wouldn't have time to do anything else if I had to watch 500 sporting events every week.

[Don King's Barber]

wow, that's crazy to me...
I guess I'm the total opposite of you. I only bet on NCAAB conferences, for example, where I at least know who all the starting players are...But I'm also not a trend/stat handicapper...I just don't understand how you can feel you have solid enough information on any undercard fighter here other than Sakara to feel confident making a play?

[Yzerman#19]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

I have never seen most college basketballs teams play

I bet I couldn't name 5 people on any one MLB roster

I couldn't tell you the name of the QB on most NCAAFB teams

that's insane to me, I mean I understand if you're throwing 50-100 a game just to have action but if I'm going to bet a considerable amount I want to at least have a feel of who or what I'm betting on.

[Mr Falcone]

Its all in the math. Ask the Asians

[drunkguy]

honestly, I can't remember the last major sporting event I watched in full


different strokes for different folks I guess


but there is a lot more information available out there other than just watching the game. I would guess you could beat UFC just by understanding where the money is coming from and having enough outs to get the best price without even knowing the fighters names

that's just me though

[WrongSideWarrior]

UFC 71 - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 5/26 701 Chuck Liddell -245
11:00PM (EST) 702 Quinton Jackson +175

Sat 5/26 703 Karo Parisyan -350
10:30PM (EST) 704 Josh Burkman +250
UFC 72 - Ireland
must occur on or before July 1 for action, fight may occur in any UFC event for action

Sat 6/16 801 Rich Franklin -400
5:00PM (EST) 802 Martin Kampmann +280

The Ultimate Fighter 5 - Finale - SpikeTV
must occur on or before July 8 for action, fight may occur in any UFC event for action
Sat 6/23 801 BJ Penn -430
10:00PM (EST) 802 Jens Pulver +310

UFC 75 - PPV
must occur on or before September 30th for action, fight may occur in any UFC event for action
Sun 9/30 701 Matt Hughes -420
10:00PM (EST) 702 Matt Serra +300

[WrongSideWarrior]

I think burkman is an excellent buy at the price above as he will get below 200 at fight time IMO...

Hughes and Penn are lower than expected as well. Think there might be some value in Rampage too as that fight will get bet down.

[Frank]

I had a hard time taking this article seriously after reading the top saying Koscheck-Sanchez was memorable.


Yea memorable as the worst fight in a long long time

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by Frank

I had a hard time taking this article seriously after reading the top saying Koscheck-Sanchez was memorable.


Yea memorable as the worst fight in a long long time

Kos/Sanchez was a snoozefest but that was a decent card all in all. Memorable for the fact that it will be known as Kos coming out party.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Frank

I had a hard time taking this article seriously after reading the top saying Koscheck-Sanchez was memorable.


Yea memorable as the worst fight in a long long time

thanks


whenever you want to put your money up let me know

[Frank]

Nothing against your picks or you article

Just that fight was not memorable.

It should have been a great fight but it sucked.

Diego was afraid to fight his game and never tried to win that boring ass fight at all.

It almost looked like he would rather lose by decision and save face than try to actually win and risk being stopped.

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Frank

I had a hard time taking this article seriously

Nothing against your picks or you article

[WrongSideWarrior]

Nice best bet. Arlovski did not look to bad. He just fought a smart fight.

[jayhawk]

Originally Posted by Frank

I had a hard time taking this article seriously after reading the top saying Koscheck-Sanchez was memorable.


Yea memorable as the worst fight in a long long time

I thought it was the most exciting fight that night. I had bet on Kos thinking that he would out box him on his feet. Diego would want kos to try to out wrestle him and then Diego would try to work some BJJ on him. I thought if Kos used his wrestling skills a a defense when Diego got in too close boxing he would control the fight. I thought it was the most excitybecause the fight went exactly like I had played it out in my head before it was fought. Yeah those fights where both guys are throwing haymakers are exciting but I like it when a fighter out thinks his opponent to a victory also.

[drunkguy]

video of the crocop fight is here



All Cro Cop Videos | vs. Gonzaga, Fedor, Silva, Sanchez | MMA UFC