UFC 69: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

Weigh-in: Friday, April 6, 2-4 PM

The UFC seems to be settling into a pattern of a high-profile event followed the next month by a fairly mild event. UFC 69 doesn't have a lot of UFC superstars, but it does have some pretty compelling match-ups of relative newcomers. Coincidental with the return of "The Ultimate Fighter" on Spike TV (whose 5th season debuted Thursday night), this card features quite a few TUF veterans.

Last month, I mentioned that UFC favorites have been slight long-term winners against the closing line. UFC 68 followed the same trend with favorites going 7-2 overall. Even considering the major upset of Renato Sobral (lined at -450), favorite bettors still edged out a small profit of 0.2 units on the night based on CRIS' closing lines.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with lines from CRIS.

Josh "Bring the Pain" Haynes (7-7-0) vs. Luke "The Silent Assassin" Cummo (4-4-0) Current Odds: Cummo -155, Haynes +135

Haynes is a TUF 3 alumnus, losing in the finals to Michael Bisping. All 7 of his credited wins have come by submission, while he has only been submitted once in his career. He is looking for his first UFC win, having lost to both Bisping and Rory Singer. Cummo is a TUF 2 veteran, losing to Joe Stevenson by decision in a close finale. Cummo is primarily a striker. He has gone 1-1 in UFC Fight Nights since his TUF appearance, both of which also went to decision. While Haynes hasn't been all this impressive, he certainly has shown heart in the ring and the style matchup should favor him. Prediction: Haynes by decision.

Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (10-3-0) vs. Pete "The Secret Weapon" Spratt (15-7-0) Current Odds: Davis -330, Spratt +280

Davis is another TUF 2 contestant. He has an extensive boxing background and was highly regarded before retiring to pursue mixed martial arts. He lost to Melvin Guillard in the undercard of the TUF 2 finale and fought in some smaller promotions before returning to UFC and winning his last 2 fights. Spratt is a TUF 4 veteran who has plenty of ring experience. He beat Robbie Lawler at UFC 42 and was offered a title shot that he declined. Spratt is a good striker and this fight should be an exciting stand-up match with plenty of punching, which would favor Davis. Prediction: Davis, 2nd round KO.

Thales Leites (9-1-0) vs. Pete "Drago" Sell (7-2-0) Current Odds: Leites -270, Sell +230

Leites is primarily a submission fighter who last fought on the undercard of the TUF 4 finale, losing his first MMA bout in a decision to Martin Kampmann. Sell's moment in the spotlight came after he defeated Phil Baroni in a huge upset in UFC 51. He has lost both of his UFC fights since then, including a stint on TUF 4. Both of his losses have come by strikes, although it is debatable whether Leites will be able to capitalize on that. Nonetheless, Sell is likely outclassed here. Prediction: Leites, 2nd round submission.

Brad Imes (5-2-0) vs. Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (26-12-0) Current Odds: Herring -275, Imes +235

Imes will have a size advantage, but his fighting background is limited. He has fought twice in the UFC (including the TUF 2 finale), but has lost both matches. Herring lost his UFC Debut on Fight Night 8, but has fought some of the best fighters in MMA during his career in K-1 and PRIDE. Herring's experience should give him a substantial edge. Prediction: Herring, 1st round TKO.

Alan "The Talent" Belcher (9-2-0) vs. Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove (7-3-0) Current Odds: Grove -155, Belcher +135

Beclher is primarily a striker who has fought on two UFC undercards. His only two losses have come by decision. Grove was the TUF 3 Middleweight champion and is undefeated in the UFC. Both fighters will look to stay on their feet and pound it out. Grove has been impressive so far, and probably will show a lot of improvement on the technical side, having spent the past 9 months training with Tito Ortiz and Team Punishment. He should come out looking a lot sharper than previous matches, and with his 4" height advantage he should be able to use his reach to control the fight. Prediction: Grove, 3rd round submission. Yushin Okami (19-3-0) vs. Mike "Quick" Swick (10-1-0) Current Odds: Swick -125, Okami +105

Okami is a ground-and-pounder who fought an amazing 7 times in 2006, including 3-0 in UFC bouts. Swick has put together a 10-1 record, and is currently on a 5-match winning streak since fighting in the UFC. He was a participant in the original Ultimate Fighter series, where he lost in the semifinals to Stephan Bonner. I think the style matchup favors Okami, as he should be able to get the fight to the floor and pound out a win. Prediction: Okami, 3rd round TKO.

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez (17-0-0) vs. Josh "Kos" Koscheck (8-1-0) Current Odds: Sanchez -210, Koscheck +180

This is probably the most anticipated bout on the card. Sanchez is a fan favorite as the TUF Season 1 Middleweight champion, although he now fights at welterweight and is undefeated in his MMA career. Sanchez defeated Koscheck by split decision during TUF. Koscheck is the superior wrestler, and while Sanchez won the first matchup, these fighters are fairly evenly matched. The sharp money seems to be on Koscheck, and for good reason. Prediction: Koscheck, 1st round submission.

Roger "El Matador" Huerta (16-1-1) vs. Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia (9-1-0) Current Odds: Huerta -610, Garcia +485

Garcia is a submission fighter making his UFC debut. He's primarily a submission fighter and has compiled an impressive record against mostly weak opponents. This is only the second time he has stepped in the ring since 2003, his last fight being over a year ago. Huerta's last match was against John Halverston at UFC 67 and ended with a TKO win 19 seconds into the first round. Huerta is an exciting fighter who is a step above Garcia, and he should take this match easily. Prediction: Huerta, 1st round TKO.

Georges "Rush" St-Pierre (13-1-0) vs. Matt "The Terror" Serra (8-4-0) Current Line: St-Pierre -1200, Serra +800

St-Pierre is stepping into the ring for his first title defense since upsetting Matt Hughes in UFC 65. Serra is the TUF 4 Welterweight Champion, and this title bout was a result of winning that tournament. Serra has had a mostly unspectacular MMA career, even though he has been fighting since 1999. He is mostly a ground fighter, and three of his four losses have gone to the scorecards. St-Pierre is also experienced, having fought many MMA notables in his career. His only loss was at the hands of Matt Hughes, a loss he avenged in his last bout to become UFC Welterweight champion. St-Pierre should have a significant reach advantage and is the more well-rounded fighter, although I can't advocate backing him as a 12-1 favorite. The value likely lies with Serra - if he can get the fight to the ground, he may be able to bring his significant submission experience into play. We will side with a wager on Serra, however unlikely the win is. Prediction: St-Pierre, 3rd round KO.

Picks (YTD: 1-2 -3.00 units):

Heath Herring -275 Kendall Grove -155 (Best) Josh Koscheck +180

Opinions (YTD: 3-3 -3.5 units)

Josh Haynes +135 Marcus Davis -330 Thales Leites -270 Yushin Okami +105 Roger Huerta -610 Matt Serra +800

04-06-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-474.html

[ukgaz]

While I think Kos will win I would be very surprised if he subs Sanchez. I think he will get a decision.

[lebowski_]

Belcher over Groove..... He is too strong for tall lanky Kendal

[cecil]

Thanks for the write ups Jay. Very interesting.

[littleogre]

Josh could very well win but i just can't see him subing sanchez. San has the better subs on the the defensive and offensive ends. As far as bets go i like okami and herring. Herring is still a decent fighter and i think he will get back on track versus a very average brad.

[WrongSideWarrior]

I will be shocked if Herring loses this match. Much more in fact than when he lost to O'Brien as Imes does not have the wrestling background that will keep Herring from exposing his lack of stand up skills. I look for a stoppage towards the end of the 1st round here. This is one of my heavier UFC plays in the past year.

[drunkguy]

the "fight night" preview show is on Spike at 3 PM ET

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by lebowski_

Belcher over Groove..... He is too strong for tall lanky Kendal

+150 at bodog $500 limit

best i see on grove is -155 5dimes

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

+150 at bodog $500 limit

best i see on grove is -155 5dimes

I think Grove is going to come in to this fight well prepared and send Belcher packing. Should be a good fight though. I just think Grove is going to keep on improving as his training camps so far have been top notch.

[drunkguy]

gonna take a little bite on Serra +875 at 5dimes

[WrongSideWarrior]

If Matt Serra is going to knock off reigning UFC Welterweight champ George St. Pierre at UFC 69 Showdown, he’s going to have to get down and dirty.

Serra’s submission and mat wrestling skills are his only chance, according to oddsmakers who set the TUF 4 winner as a +500 underdog for tonight’s fight.

The man known as “The Terror” (15-4-0) is one of the best ground fighters in the mixed martial arts world, but his struggles against upright strikers like St. Pierre are prompting books to open with the champ (13-1-0) set as a -600 favorite for his first title defense.

Ultimate Fighting bettors are siding with St. Pierre, forcing bookies to adjust the favorite's price to -800 on Saturday morning. The 25-year-old from Montreal, Quebec shocked MMA analysts in November when he knocked out then-Welterweight champion Matt Hughes for his fifth straight win. His length and explosiveness could exploit Serra’s vulnerability to stand-up fighters, which was evident in losses to B.J. Penn, Din Thomas and Shonie Carter, but Serra is prepared to prove the books wrong.

"Everybody's said the same thing about me my whole career," Serra told the Canadian Press. "If I don't get it down (to the ground), I'm getting knocked out … When was the last time I got knocked out or even hurt really, standing? The only time I got stopped was Shonie Carter and that was in 2001 and that's out of my entire career. You see me take beatings and keep on going.”

To be effective in tonight’s main event, Serra has to get the 5-foot-10 St. Pierre on his back quickly and keep him there. Despite giving up four inches and likely some weight coming into tonight’s event (both men weighed in at 169.5 pounds but St. Pierre is known to bulk up in water weight), Serra, who is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, must use his ground attack to expose perhaps the only flaw in St. Pierre’s game.

As well, Serra might have the inside track on any chinks in the champion's armor since both fighters train with Brazilian jiu-jitsu trainer Renzo Gracie in New York City. St. Pierre, who is seven years younger than Serra, didn't train with Gracie for this fight because of his opponents’ seniority and history with the Gracie program.

“These guys know each other well,” says Joey Odessa, a boxing and MMA linesmaker. “A leopard doesn't change his spots. Each knows what they have to do to win. St Pierre is the naturally bigger of the two with the better standup. Serra needs to get this bout on the ground and work his subs.”

Both fighters haven’t fought since November because St. Pierre suffered a knee injury which postponed their original meeting scheduled for Feb. 3. He damaged both his posterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments but assured bettors he is 100 percent heading into this weekend.

“I'm not rusty at all,” St. Pierre told the Miami Herald. “I've been training very hard. I'm ready to go.”

Oddsmakers also have confidence in St. Pierre’s durability after he fought through injuries in the past, including a groin strain which forced him to pull out of his original rematch with Hughes.

“It's a non factor,” says Odessa. “St Pierre is in a position as champion and more importantly being the main UFC attraction to Canadian viewers. He doesn’t have to fight injured.”

Mixed martial arts fans can watch the action live on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

[drunkguy]

if you like belcher, up to +160 at Bodog

already had some Okami, taking some more at +130 at BoDog...maybe not smart fading the line move, but i think this line should be a pk

[drunkguy]

also Koscheck up to +190 at bodog after moving down everywhere else today

[drunkguy]

Hering -240 Bodog


scalpable at pinny imes +271

[drunkguy]

Josh Haynes (Pictures) vs. Luke Cummo
Round 1
Good action in the first round. Haynes came out aggressive throwing bombs and leg kicks. Haynes then scored a takedown but backed out of Cummo's guard soon after. Cummo rocks Haynes with a three punch combo, punctuated by a vicious left hook. Sherdog.com scores the first round 10-9 for Cummo.

[drunkguy]

Round 2
Cummo comes out throwing crisp combos. Haynes is taking a lot of punishment and answering with one punch at a time. Cummo lands a big right hand that drops Haynes. Referee Carry Hatley jumps in and stops the fight at the 2:45 mark. Haynes was out of it and took the ref down shortly after the stoppage.

[drunkguy]

Marcus Davis vs. Pete Spratt (Pictures)
Round 1
Davis throws Spratt to the canvas early in the round. Davis passes to side-control then after a scramble takes Spratt's back. Davis locks in a body-triangle but he can't get his arms around Spratt's neck. With about 20 seconds left in the round, Spratt turns into Davis' guard and works some punches to the body and a hard hammerfist to the face. Sherdog,.com sees the first frame 10-9 for Davis.

Round 2
Spratt came out firing and knocks Davis off balance and to the ground early in the round. Spratt landed some solid punches to the head before Davis locked up a leg and forced a tap at 2:57 due to an ankle lock.

[drunkguy]

Thales Leites (Pictures) vs. Pete Sell (Pictures)
Round 1
Leites got a quick double leg takedown early in the frame. Leites worked some solid ground and pound before passing guard and taking Sell's back. He worked for the rear naked choke but Sell had none of it. Sell scrambled and ended up on the bottom with Leites in side-control. Leites jumped across Sell and locked up an arm triangle, but Sell was able able to ride out the final 15 seconds and was saved by the bell. Sherdog.com scores it 10-9 for Leites.

Round 2
Leites lands a crushing leg kick and a overhand right in the opening minute of the frame. Sell tries a standing guillotine then he drops down to half-guard but Leites popped his head out and landed several devastating forearms to Sell's face. Leites then tried another arm triangle but he seemed to let go of it so he could apply more punishment to Sell. Leites then teed off on Sell for the rest of the round. At one point the referee looked close to steeping in, but he allowed Sell to continue working. Sherdog.com sees it 10-8 for Leites.






I hope they show some highlights on the PPV

[drunkguy]

Round 3
Another dominating round for Leites. The Brazilian scored a takedown at the 1:30 mark and worked from top position for the rest of the fight. Moving from half-guard to side-control to mount, Leites punished the American with punches and tight positioning against the cage. Leites wins the fight 30-27 on all three judges' scorecards.