Jeff Haney on why the Florida Gators should win and will most likely cover the spread

[clevfan]

April 02, 2007

Jeff Haney on why the Florida Gators should win and will most likely cover the spread in the NCAA national championship game

LAS VEGAS SUN

Florida's advantages in experience, rebounding and ability to stay out of foul trouble make the Gators the right side in tonight's college basketball title game, Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci said.

Florida is favored by 5 points against Ohio State, a fellow No. 1 seed, in most Las Vegas sports books - even though the Gators were favored by only 3 points against No. 2 seed UCLA on Saturday.

"The UCLA number was a little short because there was a lot of sentiment for UCLA," which was looking for revenge after losing to Florida in last year's championship game, Bartucci said.

The best strategy for bettors tonight might be to try to find a cheap money line on the order of minus-230 (risk $2.30 to net $1) or less, and play Florida to win outright, Bartucci said.

"I think Florida is going to win the game, but the spread could be tricky," Bartucci, online at patricksfreepress.com, said. "But even against the point spread, Florida would be my play."

Florida has forced its NCAA tournament opponents into foul trouble in each of its recent games, and Bartucci expects that pattern to continue tonight. UCLA committed nine more fouls than Florida, Oregon 16 more, and Butler and Purdue each nine more, he pointed out.

"Their offense demands physicality, and they're going to get the whistles," Bartucci said of the Gators.

Florida also outrebounded UCLA and Oregon by comfortable margins in its previous two games, 43-26 and 39-24. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, had to rally back from a 20-point first-half deficit against Tennessee and a late 11-point deficit against Xavier to advance in the tournament.

Good luck trying to pull off a similar stunt tonight, Bartucci said.

"That's not going to happen against Florida," he said. "If Florida gets up big, Ohio State's not coming back."

Baseball odds

In most cases, Las Vegas odds on season-long major league baseball propositions roughly reflect the leading statistics-based projections.

Sometimes, the differences are worth noting.

The season wins for individual teams predicted by the highly regarded Hardball Times, for instance, jibe with Las Vegas betting lines - with a couple of exceptions linked to the AL East and the NL West.

In the AL, Hardball Times predictions have the Baltimore Orioles posting 82 victories compared with the Las Vegas line of 73 1/2; and they have the Toronto Blue Jays finishing with 81 wins, significantly short of the Las Vegas line of 87.

In the NL, HT's formula yields a projected 86 wins for the Arizona Diamondbacks, significantly better than the 78 1/2 available in Las Vegas sports books; and it predicts 82 victories for the Los Angeles Dodgers compared with the betting line of 88.

The O's and D'backs also offer overlays in division title wagering for bettors who like to follow Hardball Times projections. The Orioles have an 8 percent chance of winning the division, according to HT, which compares favorably to the 50-1 betting odds. The D'backs can be found at 6-1 on the betting line, which carries some value when compared with HT's estimate of a 34 percent chance Arizona will win its division.