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Stardust Contest...Malinsky vs Papa Joe
1. NEB -10
2. MICH ST. under 61
3. Miami (NFL) -3
4. Tenn +2
5. Buff & JAX under 43
6. Chi & MINN under 45.5
Best Bet. Purdue (PK)
1. Penn St. +10
2. Rutgers -7
3. Auburn -12.5
4. DUKE -11
5. Boise St. -23
6. N.Dame +10.5
Best Bet. Oregon -12
Here's to Papa Joe choking on all that chalk.
Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!
Sporting News Radio is much better than than ESPN,etc. because their they are not as bought into the anti-gambling hypocrisy because they don't televise or broadcast the games. They are like ESPN (80's). They are free to say something without checking with the commissars at corporate as often!
papa looks like he's playing with the public type sides favorites and ND + the points [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
whos gonna chant papa...papa...papa like he asked everyone to do on his show yesterday [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
TIE --I think they will both play 7 games again which will be read by JK next week ---- since they were both 4-3 with the both winning their best bet.
Key -- Nebraska handicap by QAW was the right side but did not win ---- Papa Joe had the wrong side of the game but won ---- for those that wonder what I am saying --- look at the boxscore.
Laying ten points with a team who can't execute in the red zone is not a 'right side' 'Cappers sometimes get caught up in box scores, losing sight of the bigger pointspread picture -- playmakers! Just look at what happened to Nebraska the week before, at home vs Utah St.
In that game, The Huskers settled for four FG’s from inside the 12 yard line, and also fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. That’s not supposed to happen against the Aggies. But with Jamaal Lord continuing to struggle throwing the football, and without a single gamebreaking WR on the roster, teams stack the line against the Huskers, and Nebraska doesn’t seem to be good enough, or fast enough, or big enough, to dominate the line of scrimmage the way they used to do.
Malinsky is one of the sharpest guys that I know, but that one pick put him back into a crapshoot with Papa next week. Laying double digit chalk is for teams that score touchdowns in the red zone, and/or have big play capability from outside the red zone. Nebraska has neither.
Granted -- Nebraska has had a difficult time getting the ball in for a TD --but, Penn St was gifted a short field TD and Nebraska dropped an interception which would have been a sure 6 point mid 4th quarter. almost 2-1 yardage and time advantage will produce double digit win more often than not.
If you watched the game play out --- the domination shown in the box was evident on the field ----
Woody: Agree 100% that Nebraska dominated that game, start to finish. And really, who am I to criticize -- each 'capper comes to their own betting decisions their own way.
My only issue comes with laying double digits on a very public side with a team that has failed to execute repeatedly in the red zone. The point that I was trying to make is that there are teams every year that dominate boxscores, but don't dominate on the scoreboard or ATS. Steering clear of those teams as DD fav's, IMHO, is a good idea, and identifying them as early as possible in the season is a good goal to shoot for!
I'm sorry, I'm not a book -- my line is just my opinion, for entertainment purposes only [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
We can actually clear up the Nebraska handicap a bit and also point out something that could be of value later in this season, or philosophically through many seasons.
While it is commonly accepted the an explosive offense is needed to cover larger pointspreads, there can be significant value to be found from teams in the same price range that can keep the opposition from scoring. Many times the strong defensive team actually lays a few points less than a strong offensive team with an identical overall power rating. These teams lack "sex appeal", yet are able to consistently get the money.
As listeners on Friday would have heard, as much or more of the Nebraska handicap was a play on that defense to stop the Penn State offense. Without a first round draft choice at RB and WR the world finds that Zack Mills is a below average QB, and the offensive line is extremely inexperienced.
What we saw on Saturday night was a team taking +10 that did not have a single "Doube Cross" in the entire game. For that to happen, and for that team to cover, is very, very, rare.
What is a "Double Cross"? We track it as a situation in which an offense gets into the red zone of the opponent after starting in their own territory. In other words, when an offense crosses midfield, and the opponent's 20 yard line, on the same drive. The Penn State offense was not able to do that a single time at Lincoln, which actually makes -10 rather cheap. But they were able to get a short TD drive of 29 yards after a Nebraska fumble, which ultimately made the difference in the pointspread result. They never seriously threated to get near the goal line again, and note that on the made FG they were at the 30 yard line.
It is exactly games like that in which the value of the defensive team ATS can come into play. Nebraska was not going to destroy that pointspread, but had an excellent chance to cover it. And there is the rub - the defensive favorites can cover at the same percentage, or perhaps even more, than the explosive offensive favorites, but they will do it by less substantial margins. The great defense can lay -17 and win 31-7, while the great offense can lay the same price and win 56-17. Hence the defensive teams can be excellent values because their victory margins do not impress the betting public nearly as much.
Poker, are you saying that you can make that offer on Betfair? Can you just call andhave them put it up? If so, then I will bet your number but you have to make a fair market and give me the chance to bet either side in order for me to guarantee you a bet. If you just want to put up a number on the guy you like then let the forum know when and I will see if it's something I want to buy.
Daily Racing Form
Football contest update
In last week's opening match of the Stardust Invitational, defending champ "Papa" Joe Chevalier and Dave Malinsky both went 4-3 with winners on their best bets. As part of the regularly scheduled second-round match between National Sports Service handicappers Dave Cokin and Bob Donahue at 9 p.m. Friday (broadcast live from the sports book to nine western states on KDWN AM-720 and worldwide on www.kdwn.com), Chevalier and Malinsky will supply seven more picks apiece to try and break their tie and advance in the 16-player, single-elimination tournament. That will be 28 selections available for free.
The most sought-after picks this week, however, will likely be from a Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest player named Keith Ogata. Picking five NFL games a week against the spread, he is 10-0 through two weeks. Three contestants are tied for second at 8-1-1 with six more at 8-2. All their selections will be available Friday afternoon in the Hilton sports book as well as at www.nss.net/Hilton.asp.
* A contestant going by the alias "Johnny V." is in first place at 8-1-1 in the Station Casinos Gambler's Challenge with four others tied at 8-2.
The most valuable commodity I know of is information