math question

[pokerjoe]

Okay, if I've played 18k hands, am winning 2.5 BB per 100 hands, with a standard deviation of 14 BB/100 hands.... what does that mean? There's a calculation, I think, that would say X% chance of my results being merely a distribution result, and not actually skill derived. Or X% chance that I'm within Y BB/100 of my reality. But I don't know the calculation. Also I suppose there's a BR calculation usefulness to such numbers, although I think the volitility is so low (see below) as to make the needed BR for online play almost nil. I've always kept 1000xBB as my BR for live play (yes, I'm that conservative), but for online, no way that's needed.

Here's an interesting fact so far from my online play: playing 3 tables of 5/10, as I have been, at 2x hands per hour (re casino poker), should equate the money churn of a 30/60 game, right? That was my hypothesis. And my historical win rate has always been about 1BB/hour, so, in thirty, that would be $60/hour.

After about 125 hours of online play (about 45 before I had pokertracker), I'm up $7500 (actually, plus the $600 in rakeback, I suppose). Which is, yes, $60/hour.

But with--am I safe in saying this?--1/6 the volitility?

[The Actuary]

I don't know about the specific volatility but I have found my results to not be normally distributed-almost regardless of the time frame within reason it looks like a wave peaking at X amount with a sharp dropoff beyond X and I have never been more than 70 BB from any peak in over 6yrs of online play-of course-except for the rare times I move up and get beat immediately.

nice to see you around PJ.

TA