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Old 12-08-2002, 01:36 PM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default EVERY SPORTSBETTOR READ THIS!!!

I HAVE COPIED AND PASTED SOMETHING WRITTEN BY KOTS IN ANOTHER THREAD THAT WILL SAVE ALL OF US FROM EVENTUALLY GOING BROKE. HIS STATEMENTS COULD NOT BE MORE TRUE AND WE SHOULD ALL APPLY THEM AND WE WILL ALL BE WAY BETTER OF FINANCIALLY SOMEDAY. IT IS EXTREMELY RARE FOR PEOPLE THAT BET SPORTS TO WIN IN THE LONG HALL YOU WILL EVENUTALLY LOSE AND BIG. PLAY AS A HOBBY ONLY. JUST LOOK ON THIS BOARD IF YOU TRACK EVERYONES PICKS FROM WHEN THEY STARTED POSTING AND MOST END UP 50%. IT IS SO SILLY HOW EVERYONE THINK THEY ARE SHARP, VERY VERY FEW ARE IN THE WORLD AND WE FOR
SOME ODD REASON HAVE LIKE 20, I FOUND THAT INTERESTING. fOOTBALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOVERS NOT HANDICAPPING, IF YOU THINK YOU ARE HANDICAPPING GUYS FUMBLING ON THE 4 YARD LINE TO WIN YOUR BET YOU ARE A FOOL. LETS FACE IT A LOT OF WINNING BETS ARE PURE LUCK AND NOT SKILL, BUT YOU THINK IT IS SKILL BECAUSE YOU WON. SOME YEARS YOU GET LUCKY WINNERS AND HAVE A DECENT YEAR AND OTHER YEARS YOU LOSE AND EVENTUALLY END UP IN THE RED FOR GOOD. PICKING OUT OF A HAT IS ALMOST THE SAME THING IN MOST BETTING OPPORTUNITIES AS TO HANDICAPPING. EVERYONE SAYS THEY WIN BUT ASK HIM HOW MUCH THERE UP AND THEY VANISH AWAY INTO THIN AIR.

EVERYONE READ THIS STATEMENT 200 TIMES AND YOU WILL BE MORE FINANCIALLY WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE, THANKS KOTS



If you are in the arena to make money, apply those same skills to: 1. currency markets, 2. stock markets, 3. real estate, 4. commodities (to name just a few areas) and you will likely do better and gain skills that can even provide a job (if needed).

Far too many people see the very, very few who do make money in this biz and think that they too can easily make "the big bucks" in sports forecasting. I contend that you can take the same amount of work and do much better in the real world of markets.

Face it, this stuff is mostly about addiction: yours. And about the guys who really make the money: the Books. They want you to believe that you can "beat the sports market" so you keep throwing big money into their cagily crafted rat-holes. And guys like Pete K provides numbers good enough to keep books who really know how to run their business solvent. The lesser Books are poorly run and simply won't make it. It's not because Pete K doesn't provide decent numbers.

-------------------------
Until they can guarantee our post up money, it is now time to boycott all the Caribbean Bookmakers...get out before the next one vanishes with your money
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Old 12-08-2002, 01:47 PM
shoebox shoebox is offline
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JJGOLD, 5 years ago I would have agreed with your statement but players have more information than ever before and they are sharper than ever before, believe it or not there are people that do win and win big. It is no coincidence that books are constantly in trouble and are going under everyday!
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Old 12-08-2002, 01:48 PM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is offline
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Good piece JJ as always, However while I am sitting here drinking my morning coffee looking out at at the ice and snow covering parts of the Charles river and thinking how much I am going to bury my man today the last thing I want to read is how it is so very hard to win over the long haul.... Motivation my boy, Motivation.... Now get back out here and give everyone a pat on the back saying "IT CAN BE DONE". Sportsbetting can and is very profitable if done right.... So everyone out here BET WITHIN YOUR MEANS and have a winning day!
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Old 12-08-2002, 02:00 PM
Fishhead Fishhead is offline
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5% of sportsbetters win and I would estimate only 10% of those 5% win anything to write home about.

Shoebox- Books are not going under because of the less than 1% of betters that make any substantial money. They are going under because of bad marketing money management, bad bookmaking policies, bad money habits of their own, and the fact some are downright criminals. Wake up and smell the beans brother!
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Old 12-08-2002, 02:09 PM
The Devil The Devil is offline
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FISH,

THAT 1 % TAKE 50 % OF THE MONEY.
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Old 12-08-2002, 02:24 PM
shoebox shoebox is offline
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Fish, no disrespect but I am not the one who has to smell the beans. When you take a look at a sheet that has figures like A +225,470, B +186,447, C +175,478 come Monday morning that hardly has anything to do with bad marketing. Players do win and win big, believe it brother!!!!!!!!
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Old 12-08-2002, 02:24 PM
Fishhead Fishhead is offline
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Devil- and that bothers you?

Shoe- Yes, betters win big.......it shouldnt matter to a capable bookmaker........and you know that.
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Old 12-08-2002, 02:28 PM
tor-evans tor-evans is offline
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Bet flat and straight to increase your gambling pleasure. Its the motto I go by and has kept me betting for 15 years. I dont win much and I dont lose much but overall I am up and I have had a lot of fun!
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Old 12-08-2002, 03:23 PM
Alan Alan is offline
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I have watched this far more years than many of you are old. It is not easier to beat today than in years past. It is easier to have the information on which solid work is based. So, this makes information available to the sharp guy that might not otherwise take the time to assemble the information. BUT, if you did the work to get the information required when it was harder to get, you had a much easier time. There was much more regional difference in lines, more lines with opinion or just plain sleepy lines, and you were competing against a much less informed marketplace.

Today, there is a small percentage of players that are capable of beating the books to death. This percentage may be as low as a half of a percent. But, the handle created by this half of a percent is significant. So, the books have a harder time making a profit. BUT, the days before computers and internet was a much easier time for the devoted player who did the work AND the books did much better because the handle from those players was insignificant.
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Old 12-08-2002, 07:27 PM
lakerfan lakerfan is offline
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Alan - interesting analysis; I had never thought about it that way.
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Old 12-08-2002, 08:07 PM
shoebox shoebox is offline
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Alan bonuses to the player will more than make up for those differences, also from a books side, I used to work in a $250 a month apartment(no liscensing fee, no $4000 a week rent) with 5 phones that only had incomming(no phone bill), 4 gringos with pen and paper(no software fee, no language barier, no $5000 a week in claims), I met each customer invididually(no western unions, credit cards or bank wire fees). See where I am getting at?

Fish, I use the winners in my office to my advantage and I will never kick them out, I am just pointing out to you guys that people can and do win and win big!
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Old 12-08-2002, 08:36 PM
Fishhead Fishhead is offline
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Shoebox- Ok.......most notably agree with that.
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Old 12-08-2002, 08:54 PM
Alan Alan is offline
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Shoe,

My point --- it used to be easier for the player to win that did the work ---but, it was also better times for the book because of all the things you mentioned AND not many people would do the work required because it was not served up on a silver platter on the internet.
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Old 12-08-2002, 10:52 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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I think one issue getting lost in here is about the stock market. Most people do not outperform the market, and many grossly underperform if not lose money. For pretty much the exact same reason as in sports.

They overrate their knowledge. Buy high sell low. Make emotional decisions. Rely far too much on experts and charts. Undisciplined. Refuse to get out of losing positions, and wont take profits on winning ones.

If someone lacks the skills in the market I have a hard time thinking they will have them in sports betting. Or vice versa. Its a mentality or mindset.

Have encountered more sharps in sports betting then in investing.
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Old 12-08-2002, 11:13 PM
KingOfTheSquares KingOfTheSquares is offline
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JJ, don't know what to say. I log into MW to crow about my 3-1 day in the NFL over in the Football forum (I need to after the mid season slump) and I find your post. Thanks.

Aly, two ways to "beat the market":

1) Dollar cost average the market and buy for the long term, i.e. send $200 per month to the Vanguard 500 and don't read the papers. The average increase per year since the Dow has been in "action" is over 8%.

2) If you must trade, only trade (long) during a Bull Market...or if you have trouble figgering when you are in one, only buy after the Fed rate has dropped three times in a row and then stop after it has gone up once.

These two "angles" have made everyone a winner over the years since WW II. All the rest of the market is mostly PR from the Bookies of the Stock Market: Brokers.

Here you're looking to build up equity basically for retirement. If you think you can beat the market for much more than 10% per year, you need some inside info on companies (illegal) or you need superior statistical/data mining techniques to find the better deals. All the expensive inside info letters are mostly PR sh!t compairable to Sports Touts' newsletters and call phones.

In my own case, I've built up a portfolio of mid 6 figures doing simply points 1 & 2 above.
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Old 12-08-2002, 11:28 PM
FoZo FoZo is offline
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Getting wealthy in the stock market is easy...follow a simple, long-term strategy (like KOTS has given) that keeps transaction costs and tax bills from eating into your $$$.

The only problem with a simple, long-term strategy is that it is BORING, and that is why people don't DO it (getting back to the mental discipline side of it)! People want to go to cocktail parties and brag to their friends about how they "smartly" traded in and out of XYZ and made 25% in less than a week. The surest way to investment riches is also the simplest way, but because most people are too damned "smart", they end up trying to reinvent the wheel and come out losers over the long-haul.
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Old 12-08-2002, 11:31 PM
TTinCO TTinCO is offline
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Read this...then read it again, then read it AGAIN until it sinks in.

1) Dollar cost average the market and buy for the long term, i.e. send $200 per month to the Vanguard 500 and don't read the papers. The average increase per year since the Dow has been in "action" is over 8%.

2) If you must trade, only trade (long) during a Bull Market...or if you have trouble figgering when you are in one, only buy after the Fed rate has dropped three times in a row and then stop after it has gone up once.

These two "angles" have made everyone a winner over the years since WW II. All the rest of the market is mostly PR from the Bookies of the Stock Market: Brokers.
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Old 12-09-2002, 12:40 AM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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KOAS,

The problem is most do not have the discipline to do that. Have not met a person who does that.

I dont disagree with what you are saying in theory. Just saying the emotions of the stock market ended up klling people the way it does with gambling. Seen it first hand over and over and over and over
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Old 12-09-2002, 01:35 AM
stevo stevo is offline
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I'm speaking with only 20 years exprience. I find the quickest way to wealth is recognizing the bubbles and over exuberence of the common investor. All the comments about long term investing are good solid advice. Just remember it is always more advantageous to sell and not be greedy during the bubbles. I agree with Aly ther is a time to take profits. This has worked extremely well for me at least. Do your homework and be patient. Nothing remains the same

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