Mess Hall Online Sportsbook Discussion 
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GWW/sick Here is the Wizard's Answer to the Roulette Bet Here was the question that GWW and sick agreed upon. "A roulette wheel is made up of 38 possibilities. The wheel is spun three times. Each of the three spins strikes the #27. Before the ball is spun, what is the probability that the fourth spin will also strike #27?" Here is the Wizard's answer. "The answer is 1/38. The past does not matter. Every number has a 1/38 chance on every spin, regardless of past events." C.M. Bet2Gamble.com 
 
That assumes that it is a FAIR roulette wheel. What if the reason it landed on the same number in three successive spins was that the wheel was fixed? What are the odds of landing on the same number three times in a row? 1 in 54872? What are the chances of a roulette wheel being rigged? Probably less than that.  Jon 
 

 
Superbook, I did. I can't say who agreed to what at what point, but I did specifically state that wanted it worded that the wheel was fair and that the "probability" was 1/38 (as opposed to "odds") ... I wanted to avoid technicalities such as this. I hear what you're saying though, and I don't disagree with the point you're making ... but I hasten to add that it was specified that the wheel was fair. I can probably dig up the exact thread if GWW insists on it. 
 
Superbook, Upon reflection, I don't agree at all ... the odds of some number coming up three times in a row are not 1 in 54K, they're just 1 in 1,444, so it's really not all that strange. And once again, it was specified that we were arguing about a fair wheel ... so this is all academic anyways. 
 
If we assume there is a human behind the wheel those three spins on same number have to effect his next spin somehow. I would say that propability would be something like 1/38.005 or 1/37.995 [img]i/expressions/faceiconsmallwink.gif[/img] 
 
Very well, I stand CORRECTED. SO the odds are 1/38 the next spin will strike the same number. Well then, I'm inventing a new theory. It's called the "phantom" odds." So the true odds may be 1/38 that a number will repeat, but the phantom odds are 1/38 x1/38=1,444. And I've already stated my reasoning, if the odds were really 1/38, 4, 5, 6, 7 strikes in a row of the same number would be a common thing. I know it's not. Anyhow, I won't be detered from this thinking, so anyone w/ any thoughts of trying...forget it! Deep, make the necessary arrangements w/ the devil. I'll neteller your $100 (USD). Sick your $200 (TD) are also waiting... 
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