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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-01-2002, 01:20 AM
C.M. C.M. is offline
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Default GWW/sick Here is the Wizard's Answer to the Roulette Bet

Here was the question that GWW and sick agreed upon.

"A roulette wheel is made up of 38 possibilities. The wheel is spun three times. Each of the three spins strikes the #27. Before the ball is spun, what is the probability that the fourth spin will also strike #27?"

Here is the Wizard's answer.

"The answer is 1/38. The past does not matter. Every number has a 1/38 chance on every spin, regardless of past events."

C.M.
Bet2Gamble.com
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Old 06-01-2002, 01:28 AM
deepsouth deepsouth is offline
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It is unclear to me why I have been excluded from your posts about asking the Wizard ... but hopefully this will mean that I win as well.
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Old 06-01-2002, 01:33 AM
sick gambler sick gambler is offline
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Deep

Of course you win, too.

Bet2gamble

Thanks for putting in the effort.
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Old 06-01-2002, 01:33 AM
superbook superbook is offline
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That assumes that it is a FAIR roulette wheel.

What if the reason it landed on the same number in three successive spins was that the wheel was fixed?

What are the odds of landing on the same number three times in a row? 1 in 54872? What are the chances of a roulette wheel being rigged? Probably less than that.

- Jon
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Old 06-01-2002, 01:33 AM
C.M. C.M. is offline
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deepsouth,

I'm not sure what you mean. Were you part of the bet as well?

C.M.
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Old 06-01-2002, 01:34 AM
C.M. C.M. is offline
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No sweat sick.

C.M.
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:13 AM
cash cash is offline
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imo this had to be the silliest no brainer of the
century..amazed at how much press it got
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:18 AM
superbook superbook is offline
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Seriously, did you specify that it was a "fair" roulette wheel with an equal probability of landing on one of the 38 numbers.

NO

I don't care what mr. bet2gamble says, I say Sick loses.
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:21 AM
deepsouth deepsouth is offline
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Superbook, I did. I can't say who agreed to what at what point, but I did specifically state that wanted it worded that the wheel was fair and that the "probability" was 1/38 (as opposed to "odds") ... I wanted to avoid technicalities such as this.

I hear what you're saying though, and I don't disagree with the point you're making ... but I hasten to add that it was specified that the wheel was fair. I can probably dig up the exact thread if GWW insists on it.
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:27 AM
World Runner World Runner is offline
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<< imo this had to be the silliest no brainer of the
century..amazed at how much press it got
>>



because some people cant say the words...

"I was wrong/stupid....here's the money"
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:32 AM
deepsouth deepsouth is offline
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Superbook,

Upon reflection, I don't agree at all ... the odds of some number coming up three times in a row are not 1 in 54K, they're just 1 in 1,444, so it's really not all that strange.

And once again, it was specified that we were arguing about a fair wheel ... so this is all academic anyways.
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Old 06-01-2002, 02:39 AM
C.M. C.M. is offline
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superbook,

I have no idea how to answer the roulette question, that's why I asked the wizard of odds. I just posted his response.

C.M.
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Old 06-01-2002, 04:42 AM
3rd&long 3rd&long is offline
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Well, maybe the wheel was fair, but what if the croupier was a mentalist, capable of bending spoons, levitating objects, and other assorted mischief?

How would that change the odds?

I believe an investigation is in order.
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Old 06-01-2002, 05:25 AM
highhand highhand is offline
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3rd and a mile, good point. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
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Old 06-01-2002, 09:24 AM
gas gas is offline
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If we assume there is a human behind the wheel those three spins on same number have to effect his next spin somehow. I would say that propability would be something like 1/38.005 or 1/37.995 [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
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Old 06-01-2002, 09:28 AM
gas gas is offline
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Maby you should ask this from some board related to psychology. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
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Old 06-01-2002, 03:58 PM
3rd&long 3rd&long is offline
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gas,

I think a psychology board may be very helpful for this forum, and this thread, in particular.
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Old 06-01-2002, 04:15 PM
Great white wolf Great white wolf is offline
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Very well, I stand CORRECTED. SO the odds are 1/38 the next spin will strike the same number. Well then, I'm inventing a new theory. It's called the "phantom" odds." So the true odds may be 1/38 that a number will repeat, but the phantom odds are 1/38 x1/38=1,444. And I've already stated my reasoning, if the odds were really 1/38, 4, 5, 6, 7 strikes in a row of the same number would be a common thing. I know it's not. Anyhow, I won't be detered from this thinking, so anyone w/ any thoughts of trying...forget it!

Deep, make the necessary arrangements w/ the devil. I'll neteller your $100 (USD). Sick your $200 (TD) are also waiting...
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Old 06-01-2002, 04:29 PM
sick gambler sick gambler is offline
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GWW

What are you trying to tell me?
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