Age Matters

[drunkguy]

FanballNews.com - Ted Carlson - Age Matters

This past Friday, I laughed, I cried, I thought of the past, I pondered the future, and I otherwise performed all the actions that typically happen on one's birthday. Maybe it's because of this momentous occasion that I'm thinking about running back ages this week. Fantasy football owners all view 30 as the barrier for NFL rushers. These guys are excellent through 29 years and 364 days, but they fall apart over the next 48 hours. Or something like that.

The point in this article is not to examine the before and after of 30-year-old backs. Rather, I've examined the ages of rushing yardage leaders in the hopes of possibly pinpointing which guys are safe picks in 2008. Below are the numbers I collected from the last 10 NFL seasons (1998-2007).

Note: Ages noted were as of September 1 of that year, which roughly equates to the start of that NFL season.

League Leaders
There's not much one can glean from looking solely at the top dogs. The ages range from Curtis Martin (31, 2004) to Edgerrin James (21, 1999). The list includes running backs who were 21, 22, 24, 25, 25, 27, 27, 28, 28, and 31. The average is 25.8 years old. Let's dig deeper.

The Top Five
Let's check out the average ages for each of the past 10 seasons.

2007: 26.2
2006: 26.0
2005: 26.8
2004: 28.4
2003: 24.0
2002: 24.0
2001: 26.8
2000: 25.4
1999: 25.6
1998: 27.2

In general, the league's best rushers have been on the positive side of 25. Here's another way to break down the 50 running backs who finished amongst the top-five yardage guys from 1998-2007:

Ages 20-22: 5
Ages 23-24: 9
Ages 25-26: 14
Ages 27-28: 14
Ages 29-32: 8

There's a fairly clear sweet spot in the 25-28 range. And thanks to guys like Fred Taylor and Tiki Barber, it looks like the elderly backs (29-plus) have been nearly as potent as the young studs in the 23-24 range.

The Top Ten
Again, let's start with the average ages for each of the past 10 seasons.

2007: 27.2
2006: 26.0
2005: 26.5
2004: 26.8
2003: 25.7
2002: 24.6
2001: 26.0
2000: 25.3
1999: 25.8
1998: 26.1

And the age bracket breakdown:

Ages 20-22: 8
Ages 23-24: 20
Ages 25-26: 32
Ages 27-28: 24
Ages 29-32: 17

That career curve shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed football for awhile, but it gives you something to think about when assessing the running back rankings this summer.

When it comes down to it, talent and opportunity are going to win out, no matter what the age. But we all know fantasy football owners love fresh, young legs and often aren't afraid to swing for the fences with youngsters like Darren McFadden (21) and Jonathan Stewart (21). Instead, you might be better off leaving your draft with three or four guys who are 25-27 years old, i.e. the sweet spot of running back ages.

The (Partial) List
25 years old: Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Marion Barber, Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams

26 years old: Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs

27 years old: Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell