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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-14-2006, 10:45 AM
articsublime articsublime is offline
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Default NBA Posessions Info

I read some real intersting things on NB posessions earlier in the year and I was ineterested in the stats on how this were kept. See that Hollinger does them for teh NBa but I am interested in doing some numbers for totals in other leagues dos anyboyd know how i could do this>

Thanks in Advance

AS
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Old 10-16-2006, 01:56 AM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Don't know of any places that post boxscores with the possessions in them. If you have Hollinger's formula from his past publications, I'd suggest using that.

If not, this will get you close:

*Field Goal Attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus one-half the number of free throw attempts

*Made Field Goals plus defensive rebounds plus turnovers plus one-half the number of free throw attempts.

I think Hollinger uses the first one, but uses .44 instead of one half for the free throw multiplier (I have NO memory when a sport is out of season, lol). Years before I read Hollinger's stuff I was using the above two and just averaging them for my own numbers.

Edited to fix lame-brain error...I meant to type 1/2 the number of free throws the first time through, but inadvertently put in field goal attempts instead. Sorry for any confusion...blg

If you can find boxscores for other leagues, you can do them by hand yourself. I did that for awhile for fun in the Euroleague games. I think the website is euroleague.net for comprehensive stats. We played around with tempo numbers in the WNBA here in the Think Tank for awhile during the summer...but the thread died of loneliness...

Good luck!
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Old 10-27-2006, 03:17 AM
Maximo Maximo is offline
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Blog, where can I read the Hollinger information? Thanks.
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Old 10-27-2006, 07:03 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Last I heard he was writing as an "ESPN Insider" at espn.com. I just went to his old website, www.alleyoop.com, and it doesn't look like it's been updated in ages. They're still advertising last year's annual.

I've heard he's not putting out a new annual...but I haven't heard why, or anything else along those lines. If you're looking for old Hollinger stuff, you can probably order those books from Amazon.com. Not sure which "information" you're looking for. If you want his formulas, they're in his annuals. If you're wondering where his "new" information will be posted, I'm guessing it's exclusive to ESPN now.

I like www.82games.com for NBA stuff, and I spent most of my time there last year rather than with Hollinger material. It's all good...so any stat stuff you come across will be a step up from the basics in the mainstream media.

If anybody knows the latest with John Hollinger, please post it here!!

blg
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Old 10-28-2006, 04:56 PM
Juice Juice is offline
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He is on insider and I forgot why he said he didn't do a annuel this year.

Call me crazy but insiders does a good job of putting up NBA stuff.
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Old 11-02-2006, 12:53 PM
johnwals johnwals is offline
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are there any sites that measure the tempo lines?
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Old 11-02-2006, 09:11 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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I don't know of anyplace that's making them available. 82games.com uses that within their other formulas. So, when you see points-per-possession or whatever...it's based on tempo. I don't know of any place that just lists the possessions for each team per game.

I'll be doing them by hand with my formula (slightly different, but it serves the same purprose). Anyone who wants to pay me for a copy can send me a PM, lol. Can't just send them out to everyone...but maybe if enough people are interested something can be worked out.

Maybe one of the regulars here will volunteer to post them for free on the site. Turnovers may wreak havoc with them early. A couple of 106's Wednesday night just because some teams kept losing the ball. This creates more possessions, and the illusion of an up-tempo game to a degree. Will be interesting to monitor.

Maybe someday nba.com will just include possessions in the boxscores...blg
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Old 11-03-2006, 11:47 PM
datadriven datadriven is offline
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I don't know if you guys have seen this site but it seems to have logical formulas.

http://www.allsports.com/nba/stats/methods.htm
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Old 11-10-2006, 07:20 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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knickerblogger.net, click on "stats page" at the top.
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Old 11-11-2006, 02:39 AM
Immanuel Kant Immanuel Kant is offline
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nice site..thanks Spraguer!
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Old 11-25-2006, 03:22 AM
ratbelly ratbelly is offline
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Interesting thread. I love the Possessions and Points per Possession handicapping system for the NBA. I have been experimenting with it for a couple years. Nice to see some of the sites and info posted here.

To anyone that uses this method:

** How big of an emphasis do you put on "past 3 games", "past 5 games", "past 10 games", etc....vs. YTD #'s?

***I have been using the (.475 * FTA).....what are thoughts on this? I have seen (0.4 * FTA) and (0.436 * FTA) used, but not sure what is the most acccurate.

*** What type of adjustments, etc... have you typically made for teams with 0 days rest or similar situational stats?
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Old 11-27-2006, 08:02 PM
j j is offline
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<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: ratbelly


To anyone that uses this method:



** How big of an emphasis do you put on "past 3 games", "past 5 games", "past 10 games", etc....vs. YTD #'s?



***I have been using the (.475 * FTA).....what are thoughts on this? I have seen (0.4 * FTA) and (0.436 * FTA) used, but not sure what is the most acccurate.



*** What type of adjustments, etc... have you typically made for teams with 0 days rest or similar situational stats?</end quote></div>

--
Here are some responses.

1) NBA teams change tactics quite a bit, as when Memphis went to a high-possession drive and kick strategy for a couple of games last week just to see what would happen. So I think to you possession information effectively you have to stay up on that kind of thing--sort of like football handicappers who filter out quarterback kneel downs and sacks out of yards per rush averages.

As a rule of thumb good teams will pretty much always be trying to do the same things. The Spurs, for example, average 92 possessions per game, and they'll be within two of that eighty percent of the time. The Knicks played Boston and Houston in consecutive games last week, and had 89 possessions versus Houston and 105 versus Boston. For handicapping purposes the Knicks don't have an average number of possessions. Hoseplayers who use pace figures have to pick out which of a horses races will be most representative of how he'll run today given his form indicators and competition--and there's an analogous process for using points per possession info.

2) I follow Hollinger and use .44. Dean Oliver uses another figure, but it's hair splitting debate that I don't think is worth worrying about. What is crucial is that you eyeball the results of the formula for each team. Obviously if the formula is reflecting the reality the results won't differ by more than one. If they do differ, the problem usually has to do with free throws. Either there were fouls on three point shots, or several defensive three second violations all on one side--a bigger problem this year. If you saw the game you can eyeball the adjustment, other wise you have to just adjust the one that seems off the most.

3) I think situational stats are important for accurate use of possession information, but I don't think there are generic adjustments. Going back to last year the Spurs are not only bad in B2B situations, but they tended to play slower in that situation with the handicapping implication that they were not able to counter someone who was playing fast. Phoenix has been a very good B2B team in the Nash era due to the fact that they actually play faster than fast on short rest. They're the team that most plays on spinal cord, and I think there's something about their tired minds letting their superbly condiioned bodes play free that helps them. There are interesting pace discoveries to be made in many situaional categories, and I would throw out that how teams play in divisional games is an especially interesting area for investigation.
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Old 11-29-2006, 12:56 AM
buffbetonsports buffbetonsports is offline
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Data, thanks for the link There is also a link that will take you to other sports. I am pouring over the college hoops.
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Old 12-07-2006, 11:53 PM
datadriven datadriven is offline
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You welcome buffbet but I'm not seeing the NCAA stuff your referring to.
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Old 12-09-2006, 02:41 AM
BigDaddy2 BigDaddy2 is offline
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great info
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