Tuesday Strikeouts July 25

[blogguy]

Here are the gradings I get for Tuesday night...

Harmonic Convergences
Ortiz Under 2.5 -111 vs. San Francisco
Snell Over 4.5 -135 at Milwaukee
Santana Over 4.5 -145 at Tampa Bay
Santana Over 6.5 -159 at CWS
Redman Under 2.5 -159 vs. Baltimore

That's more than normal. None grade out to the degree that Bonderman and Lackey did last night. The math was suggesting the line was about 1.5 runs too low in those. Santana of the Angels gets pretty close. He would be might favorite of the five. The other Santana would be second favorite. Snell's got a chance of imploding and getting knocked out early. Going Under 2.5 doesn't leave much margin for error in the other two examples. But...there is a convergence there of key indicators in all five of these games, so I included them in the top group.

Others worth considering
*Sheets Under 5.5 -152 vs. Pittsburgh (first start in a while, no guarantee he'll have his stuff)
*Clemens Over 4.5 -162 vs. Cincy (rounding into form, Reds a high K team)
*Shields Over 4.5 +132 vs. LAA (K's per 6 IP at home for the year are 5.3, so it's odd this is a dog)
*Eaton Under 3.5 +136 vs. NYY (first start, tough park, underdog payoff if he gets knocked out early...no guarantee of K's if he doesn't)
*Meche Over 4.5 -178 vs. Toronto (K's per 6 IP at home for the year is 5.9. This would be a convergence game but Toronto's offense generally does a good job of avoiding strikeouts. They did have 5 in 6 innings against Pineiro last night however.

[SlipperyPete]

I think its always a good idea to stay away from the high juice props, no matter how tempting they look
(they never seem to cash for me, anyways)

[blogguy]

Didn't get a chance to post results right after the games. Final family airport shuttle is now complete!

Harmonic Convergences
Ortiz Under 2.5 -111 (loses with 5)
Snell Over 4.5 -135 (wins with 9)
Santana Over 4.5 -145 (wins with 6)
Santana Over 6.5 -159 (loses with 6)
Redman Under 2.5 -159 (loses with 4

I'd listed Santana of the Angels as my favorite...and he cleared by 1.5. Santano fo the Twins in the second spot just missed...but was on pace for the number all night. Snell has explosive numbers when he's on. You just never know for sure when he'll be on. Snell has 5 or more in 6 of his last 8 starts FYI. The two scary Unders both lost as each guy lasted deeper into the game then expected. Redman dodged bullets, stranding 10 runners in the first 5 innings I believe. Looks like you really need those guys to get knocked out for it to be a percentage play. Still learning with those...stats are more erratic because they go 2 innings...then 6...then 3...then 6. The consistent "high K" guys are more likely to go 6 or more every time.

Harmonic convergences go 2-3 for the night...but it's more like 2 and 4.2 with the moneylines. If you played LAA's Santana for more, that helped soften the blow. Gradings with the high guys have been really consistent. You almost always get close at the very least. Will probably devote more energy to them as we continue. One of those things where the "low" guys win when I leave them out, and lose when I include them. So far the best value has been high gradings where recent form suggests the number is 1.5 runs too low.

Others worth considering
*Sheets Under 5.5 -152 (wins with 5...note that he started out slowly, then picked up steam later...a good sign for his next few starts)

*Clemens Over 4.5 -162 (loses with 4, final batter had an 0-2 count but a runner was caught stealing to spike the possible victory!)

*Shields Over 4.5 +132 (wins with 6, hope you've been noticing this TB ballpark)

*Eaton Under 3.5 +136 (loses with 4...he was extremely sharp for 3 innings, then the wheels fell off. Unfortunately he cracked the threshold during those sharp innings)

*Meche Over 4.5 +178 (wins with 5...I typed -178 yesterday in a typo, it was a big dog at +178. Even though he got rocked, he did manage to get enough K's to clear the hurdle before leaving. Strong K numbers in this park for Meche this year.

"Others" went 3-2....which was 4.1 and 2.62 with the moneylines.

For the night...5-5 on wins and losses, 6.1 and 6.62 on the moneylines. How you handled Santana of LAA determines if you won a little or lost a little. Overs go 4-2...Unders go 1-3...and the situations where 7 game medians and home/road split projections suggest an Over have been really solid this week. Will probaby place more weight on those in the coming days...

[blogguy]

Thanks for the comment SP. Normally I agree with you wholeheartedly about high prices. I'd have to say though that the high juice props with strikeouts have typically been winning enough to cover the vig. And...I'm talking about all of them, not just the ones that grade out for me.

I think I said in an earlier post that the high juice typically represents the smart money in obscure props like this. The public doesn't bet them. So, if you see a big number...it's one the people who know the stat have hit hard already...or were likely to hit hard if the number were lower. Time will tell if the high numbers take away the value or not. Normally they do. In this prop...that hasn't been happening yet.

The 200 or more favorites have been winning more than 2 out of 3 times on the days I've been following...

The 150 or more favorites have been winning more than 60% of the time on the days I've been following.

So...to this point...the juice isn't scary. Might just be a short term sample though over a couple of weeks. The fact that this is pretty much a prop that ONLY sharps are betting might mean we have to adjust our perceptions for what the moneylines mean. Time will tell...

[blogguy]

This became a double post because things went wacky when I was trying to put it into the thread (site went down for a few moments...or something with my computer). I'll use this spot instead to post daytime stuff for Wednesday:

Harmonic Convergence:
Sabathia over 5.5 -165 vs. Detroit

Another worth considering:
Fossum Over 3.5 -117 vs. LA Angels
(Fossum's median the last 7 games is 5...he's gone 8-6-4-6 his last four starts...his K/6 innings at home is over the threshold...day game in a dome...but, it's still Fossum after all, lol).

I forgot to check the numbers in Colorado. Both Suppan and Cook would show up as Unders I believe with a convergence. I'm less excited about those after last night. And, this park has become so low scoring that I'm afraid one or both could go deep into the game.

Because of the two-run difference, I personally kind of like Fossum more than Sabathia. Sabathia wasn't sharp against Minny in his last start...but that was the second time they had seen him in a week. The numbers I've been using to find cocktails all line up on him though, so I wanted to make everyone aware of that. Fossum's full season K-rate isn't that great, so he's not a convergence guy. A threshold of 3.5 just seems so darned manageable given what he's been doing lately...

[blogguy]

Ouch on the early stuff lol...

Sabathia didn't allow runs early, but you could see he didn't have his good stuff. Through five innings he had only one K and had stranded some baserunners. Detroit got to him in the sixth. This is now two straight starts where he stopped mowing people down. Today was very important because Detroit was the worst K team on offense in the AL the last time I checked. EVERYONE strikes out Tigers hitters...so only having 1 K through five innings meant he was "throwing to contact" as Immanuel Kant put it the other day.

Fossum got rocked early, and didn't have a chance to get to his hurdle.

Also of note early, Capuano's troubles continued. a 1K effort vs. Arizona two starts ago signalled some problems. He's clearly lost whatever was allowing him to dominate during his peak starts awhile ago. Might mean an injury, or a tired arm.

Tonight's best convergences don't show the 1.5 run gradings that have been having the best success (when a 5.5 line has a guy who looks to have a good chance at 7...a 4.5 line has a guy who looks to have a good chance at 6).

So, let's just call these ones to look at:
*Johnson of Florida Over 5.5 -124 vs. Atlanta
*Smoltz of Atlanta OVer 6.5 -104 vs. Florida
(I get 6 and 7 as recent medians for those guys respectively...but the offenses are both strikeout prone)

Guys with huge moneylines:
*Pettitte of Houston over 4.5 -202 (8 and 10 h is last two starts...and he's got a history of finding his form whenever Clemens is around...and floundering otherwise...personally, don't want to lay 202, lol)
*Astacio of Washington Under 2.5 -182
*Rheineker of Texas Under 2.5 -211

Rheineker is tempting because his last 7 starts show 2-0-1-2-1-0-1...meaning ZERO times over 2.5 runs. Laying -211 isn't that scary in that light. But...as I said yesterday, not much margin for error with a number so low. And, as SP pointed out...it's always a grind to beat those pricey numbers.

Nothing I'm excited about tonight. Smoltz would probably be the most logical guy to consider given his consistency, a favorable home road split, and Florida's ranking in the top five of strikeout prone teams in the NL. Since I've been trying to post the one I like best each night...I'll go with Smoltz. Just checked, Johnson as a hitter has struck out 58% of the time in his at bats the last time I totalled everyone...so that might give us a boost of 1 or 2.

By the way...an EXTREMELY clear tendency is for young NL pitchers to strike out a lot when they have to try to bat. They've got very little experience versus major league caliber pitching. So...if you see a young guy on the mound, you should probably think immediately about asking the other guy's K's to go Over the total if any line value is apparent.

[blogguy]

Smoltz wins with 9
Johnson wins with 6

Astacio loses with 4 (too high)
Pettite loses with 3 (too low)
Rheineker wins with 1 (continuing his trend of almost NEVER getting strikeouts!)

Looks like we did the cut-off at the right place in the night action. Looks like we need to add consistency and quality into the cocktail mix at least when deciding who deserves the most respect. Fossum can make some sense...but he's a lot more likely to get nailed than a guy like Smoltz is. The best of the convergences the past week or so have been those guys who are 1-2 or so in their rotations. Lower than that, and it's probably better to look for some nice dog spots. We've hit many of those...none really graded out tonight. Glad Smoltz and Johnson did...