Monday Strikeouts July 24

[blogguy]

I hope many of you have started playing around with the K props. I'm still not going to delve too deeply into the handicapping elements. There are enough questionable numbers that I don't want to step on the feet of sharps who are following the fundamentals and taking what's given.

I will tell you that it looks like there's a big difference in Toronto depending on whether or not the roof is shut. I posted something up in the Mess Hall Saturday asking about that. I was thinking that shadows on the field might help Lilly with that weird starting time. Instead, the roof was shut because of rain...but Lilly had a HUGE strikout game. Thinking back the past week or so...it's clear that there's a line adjustment already being made on that. The totals are lower than you would have expected on bright sunny days...higher than you'd have been hoping for if the roof is shut. I'll leave it up to you guys to determine whether or not the adjustments are enough to reflect the reality in each visibility situation.

Tonight, the following jumped out as "harmonic convergence" possibilities given the possible influences:

Bonderman Over 5.5 -158 at Cleveland
Lackey Over 5.5 -172 at Tampa Bay

Other logical possibilities:
Davis Over 4.5 -167 vs. Pittsburgh
Millwood Under 4.5 -164 vs. NYY
Hudson Under 4.5 -200 vs. Philadelphia (it's pricey because Hudson's last five starts have gone 1-1-4-1-1)
Maddox Under 3.5 (+101) at NYM
Young Over 4.5 -115 at LAD
Zito Under 4.5 +142 (3-3-4-3-2 his last five starts, so it's odd that it's a dog. He's usually better than that of course)

For those of you tinkering...I noticed that the jimfeist.com expanded pitcher matchups show the last 7 starts...while donbest.com shows the last 5 starts. If you're looking to grab "medians" over a recent set of starts, I prefer the 7 starts. This is a shortcut that helps avoid calculating IP/9 or IP/6 stuff for each guy. And...it helps you see how guys yo-yo because it's hard to have a great start right after a great start. If you see a guy going 6-6-6-6 of late...he's a bit safer than a guy going 4-11-3-10 if you're talking about the nextr start...but that latter guy might be good to take in the bounce back.

Also...the jimfiest "pitcher logs" have good breakdowns for home/road stuff. They've got a full season log too so you can just write down each number from only the road games...or only the home games. There are some starters where that's a big deal. BIG deal.

Dinque mentioned last week that it's good in the NL to know if there will be any easy K's because the opposing pitcher will be overmatched at the plate for 1-2 at bats. mlb.com's team stat pages show you how all the pitchers have hit this year. Doesn't take that long to calculate the strikeout percentage for each pitcher as a hitter. Some guys strike out about half the time...some strike out only 15-20% of the time. Particularly important to know for the guys who may stay in the game for 6-7 innings.

Also wanted to mention that Bedard and Kazmir both had big strikeout games in that Sunday matchup that was talked about in the Mess Hall. If you liked Bedard because of his recent form (after learning the change-up), but didn't want to back the Orioles because you like Kazmir at home, using the K props would have been one way to avoid worrying about the team side. The game was 2-2 into the 8th inning, suggesting a coin flip before the bullpens came in. The K props had been taken care of much earlier (note again a day game in a dome).

I know the majority of readers at this site aren't really into this particular stat. I hope you'll consider spending some time with them...

[blogguy]

Monday Night Summary:

Bonderman Over 5.5 -158 at Cleveland (wins with 7)
Lackey Over 5.5 -172 at Tampa Bay (wins with 7)

Other logical possibilities:
Davis Over 4.5 -167 vs. Pittsburgh (loses with 3)
Millwood Under 4.5 -164 vs. NYY (wins with 2)
Hudson Under 4.5 -200 vs. Philadelphia (wins with 4)
Maddox Under 3.5 +101 at NYM (loses with 4)
Young Over 4.5 -115 at LAD (wins...at least 5 through 6 innings)
Zito Under 4.5 +142 (wins with 4)

Young's game is still in progress as I write this. Wanted to update the numbers before calling it a night:

Harmonic Convergences: 2-0, both clearing by 1.5 K's
Others: 4-2...which was 4.42 and 2.67 with the money lines

Davis posting just 3 vs. Pittsburgh suggested he had very little stuff. Pittsburgh has troubles with K's vs. good pitchers (remember Kim of Colorado had double digits vs. them last week).

I included Maddox figuring Trachsel would be a help. Trachsel had only struck out 17% of the time this year...but Maddox got him the first time up! Like cracking pocket aces! Proved to be the difference maker.

I guess I'll keep banging this drum for awhile. The harmonic convergences continue to work out nicely...hope more and more of you are playing around with these...particularly the four of you who read this before the games started!