Monday Strikeouts

[blogguy]

Figured I'd start a thread for strikout props...and anyone can add in what they wish. I'm not going to list all the props with high juice today. As of mid-afternoon...19 of the 30 pitchers are showing prices of -150 or higher at their number!

Here are some "convergence" possibilities where a few different indicators seemed to line up at reasonable prices. I do have some dogs in the mix. Bucking the high prices hasn't really been a great strategy since I've been paying attention. But, I'm interested to see how these convergences played out...and I figured I might as well post them so we all can look.

In schedule order:
Kim Over 4.5 -133
Hamels Over 5.5 +150
Schmidt Over 6.5 -119
Lilly Over 5.5 +132
Baker Over 4.5 +145

I'd like Schmidt and Baker best. Milwaukee's the worst strikeout team in the NL, and we saw Webb light them up the other day with 10. Schmidt at home in a night game makes some sense to have a good K game with the Brewers in a day after travel. Tampa Bay's third worst in the AL heading into their matchup with Baker...a guy who's got great peripherals according to guys with great vocabularies...

Since I"ve been listing favorites and "others" the past few days. I'll put those two in the group that's 5-2 so far.

Feel free to share your thoughts about K props!

[blogguy]

Kim Over 4.5 -133 (wins with 9...note that he threw 127 pitches!)
Hamels Over 5.5 +150 (wins with 6)
Schmidt Over 6.5 -119 (loses with 5, all in first 4 innings)
Lilly Over 5.5 +132 (loses with 2, very low for him)
Baker Over 4.5 +145 (wins with 6)

The two I liked best split out for a profit with +145 on Baker but -119 on Schmidt. The fivesome went 3-2...hitting two of the dogs. The moneyline record on the 3-2 was 3.95 and 2.19.

Though the two dogs happened to hit with this analysis, overall the pricey favorites had an incredible night. Again, this is a prop that mostly sharps play, so prices represent sharp action rather than the "public" loading up on something for goofy reasons.

Favorites of 150 or more went 15-4. Yes...19 of the props had favorites of 150 or more....and they won more than 70% of the time (making me feel fortunate to have been on two of the four where the big dog got there). This is a continuation of everything I've seen this weekend. Adjusting for the moneylines, the record moves to 15 and 6.73...still way in the black.

If you're not familiar with the K props...all of them end with a "half" to negate the possibility of pushes. This leads to the oddsmakers putting high prices when the pitchers are "between clubs" so to speak. If a true number really should be 5...then it's either an expensive Over at 4.5, or an expensive Under at 5.5. What I've seen so far suggests the oddsmakers can't make it expensive enough.

Just a handful of people read this on game day...so there doesn't seem to be much interest. I think the possibilities here are very strong for now. So, I'll be pursuing them in private. If you'd like to exchange ideas on K props, send me a PM about it. Maybe we can set up an email/PM network of people who are into this prop. Basic fundamental stat handicapping seems to have clear applications for both Overs and Unders (a lot of non-strikeout pitchers are posting just 1 or 2 against teams who don't strikeout much...but the lines are never that low)...and many sharps are already doing a lot in this field.

If it's not your cup of tea...you might want to rethink your beverage list...

[Immanuel Kant]

The Jay pen was fried last night, Blog...Lilly knew he was in for the long haul...pitched to contact...under was a gift!

[Immanuel Kant]

...so now that Lilly saved the Pen....Marcum is the spot starter tonight.....my assumption is that if everything goes right(and I'm not suggesting it will) he'll pitch for 5 inn max.....I say he goes less....under 3.5 K -137 is my play