Format for Pitcher Comments for Posters

[blogguy]

I was trying to come up with the easiest way for everyone to contribute to the effort to stay on top of pitching developments. Some of you have already offered some possibilities, I know others are thinking about it.

I decided a quick and easy way would be for me to just post at the top of a thread a listing of the pitchers. Then...you could cut and paste all or parts of that into a post that you make yourself. If you want to comment on every pitcher you could. If you just want to point out that so-and-so threw 125 pitches in his last start....or is coming back after a long injury layoff or something...you can just cut and paste that team or that game.

I'll do the same with some of the stat things I uncover. There were only about 4-5 readers yesterday for all the pitching stuff I put together...so I'm not going to go through all of that again. That's too much work for 4-5 readers! I'll log everything on legal paper again for my own use and just pop in with some notes about home/road splits, or other things that seems to be under the radar.

If you're concerned about "giving away an edge" on something you like, take care of business first...then feel free to post the data afterward (just do it before the game starts if you think it will help readers!)

I hope everyone reading this will consider posting a thought or two. Even if you're not a stathead, you may have noticed something when watching a recent game involving one of these pitchers.

Here's the listing that you can cut-and-paste into a post to fit your needs:

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles Hendrickson:
St. Louis Suppan:

Philadelphia Lidle:
San Francisco Lowry:

New York Glavine:
Chicago Zambrano:

Houston Pettitte:
Florida Johnson:

Colorado Cook:
Cincinnati Arroyo:

Washington Astacio:
Pittsburgh Snell:

Milwaukee Capuano:
Arizona Webb:

Atlanta Smoltz:
San Diego Park:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago Buerhle:
New York Mussina:

Seattle Moyer:
Toronto Halladay:

Texas Rheineker:
Baltimore Bedard:

Oakland Haren:
Boston Schilling:

Kansas City Gobble:
Detroit Verlander:

Cleveland Sabathia:
Minnesota Santana:

Tampa Bay Shields (not Kazmir):
Los Angeles Santana:

If you're not sure how to cut and paste....simply highlight the teams or games you want with your cursor...then hit "Control" and "C" on your keyboard simultaneously. That makes a "copy" of the highlighted material in the memory of your computer that you can place somewhere else. In your own reply to this thread...simply start typing then hit "Control" and "V" simultaneiously to place the copied material down.

[stevo]

Well, I have notes on every one of these pitchers but they are really good only as a body of work and just adding the last pertinent stats or whatever doesnt feel right. For my work anyway Blog. Not yours.

Here is my early favorite.

Los Angeles Hendrickson: Nothing I have on this guy says he is going to win his first game vs the Cards. I just can't find anything in my notes that says +130 is worth it. I laid the 141.


St. Louis Suppan: Dont know why Cards score for him just hope they do today. Good home record this year makes me think Dogers will have to work.

[blogguy]

Since I started logging "average K's per game" for the pitchers, I figured I'd look at strikeout props today. Here are pitchers with at least 4.5 K's per game who are matched up against offenses that have been at least average in being strike out prone...or who are definitely strike out prone:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Zambrano: 6.5 K's per game...Mets have 609 K's, which isn't horrible but at least suggests they can be K'd by good pitchers. Pinny has Over 5.5 at -168.

Florida Johnson: 5.3 K's per game...Astros aren't that bad at K's. But, the Pinny Over 5.5 is a dog at +124. Johnson's been pitching well, it's a pitcher's park, and he may go 6.5 to 7 innings.

Cincinnati Arroyo: 5.1 K's per game...Rockies aren't that strikeout prone...but over 5.5 is a +162 underdog. Arroyo's been great at home this year, and is averaging 7.1 IP per start on a 2.52 ERA in Cincy.

Pittsburgh Snell: 4.5 K's per game...Washington is like the Mets in strikeouts...over 4.5 was -143 at Pinny last I looked. Snell seems to have settled his ship after a shaky start to the season.

Milwaukee Capuano: 5.8 K's
Arizona Webb: 5.4 K's vs. the worst K offense in the majors (702 fans for the Brewers).

Capuano Over 4.5 is -112
Webb Over 5.5 is -143. This one's really the first harmonic convergence so far...where a good strikeout pitcher is matched up against a horrible strikeout offense.

Atlanta Smoltz: 5.7 K's vs. 620 K's for San Diego in a great pitcher's park. Smoltz Over 5.5 is -125. This one makes some good sense too.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota Santana: 7.2 K's per game...and Cleveland is second worst in the AL at striking out. Pinny has Over 6.5 at -163..suggesting the sharps were on this one too.

Los Angeles Santana: 4.5 K's per game...with Tampa Bay being third worst in the AL at strikout out. Pinny has Over 4.5 at -143...again looking like sharps are playing this one given that price.

There are probably a few others in there that could be considered. Trying not to make this a novel. Pettitte has K potential if he ever gets his act together...and Florida is second worst in the NL at strikeouts. But...the juice was something like 180 on the over for Pettite....probably taking value away.

I guess my favorites would be:
Santana of Minnesota
Webb of Arizona
Smotlz of Atlanta
Santana of Anaheim

My first day playing around seriously with this...and I might be "squaring out" because I'm betting favorites. I really don't think this is a prop that squares play much though...so high juice might be a signal to pay attention to something. We'll keep playing around and learning.

Thanks Stevo for adding your thoughts. Feel free to post whatever you'd like in the TANK!

blg...

[stevo]

Hey Blog. I talk with JJDMAN all the time and he loves pitcher props and stuff and is very good at it.

I know he is in C.R right now or he would be commenting too.

He is running a really good record on + money pitcher props this year and I'm sure he will at least read this on his laptop. Good stuff.

[colorado]

First I would like to thank Blog for taking all the time he does to push these idea's in front of us. Many I thought were useful, some I didn't but appreciated the effort put into it. One area I never looked at prior to this year that Blog and Stevo brought to my attention was the 5 inning bet. I incorporated a great deal of what I have read in the think tank and started playing the 5 inning bet with great success this year.

First I look for a game in which both pitchers average >.66 strike outs per inning.
If any game qualifies then I look at average runs scored using the average of the median of the last 30 days and last 15 days runs scored. If the sum of both team averages is less than the OU, then I check the park average runs allowed over the past 30 and 15 days.

If the park average is less than the posted OU plus.5, it's a play.

This year since I started this in mid May, it has been averaging about a play a day with an impressive win percent.

Today two games would qualify. For the first 5 innings I bet the UNDER in each game.

Houston @ Florida
Pettitte SO/IP = .76
Johnson SO/IP = .87
Houst average runs scored on road = 2.5
Florida average runs scored at home 3.5
Average runs scored at Florida =6.5

Milwaukee @ Arizona
Capuano SO/IP = .87
Webb SO/IP = .74
Milwaukee average runs scored on road = 4
Arizona average runs scored at home = 2.75
Average runs scored at Arizona = 8.5

Hope this can spark a greater insight into Blogs master plan to make all of us a better bettor and more wealthy in the process. These numbers and idea's are basically a mixture, (cocktail) of what Blog and others have posted so far.

[blogguy]

Wow Colorado...great post!

I'm glad that some of the things that we've put on the table here in the TANK has inspired this approach for you. Please take 99.9 % of the credit though for putting the pieces together the way you did. That looks like a very stringent but worthwhile qualifying process to determine plays that make a lot of sense given a series of indicators. I know it takes a lot of work to do that for all the games...so I'm grateful that you shared these with us tonight.

Best of luck tonight...hopefully the MW jinx is something that stays in the Mess Hall!

And congrats on finding a strategy that's worked out so well for you. Great to hear!

[blogguy]

Finally finished a bunch of little things I had to do...here are some comments on Saturday's pitchers. The day games have all started (2 finished) by the time I could get this posted...but some of the notes may apply to future stuff.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles Hendrickson: More evidence with good performance today that middling AL starters may be good in the watered down National League. Hendrickson's been solid in the NL so far.
St. Louis Suppan: Coming in...Suppan's home ERA was 3.54...but overall ERA was 5.86. He pitched well again today.

Philadelphia Lidle: Journeyman muncher stats
San Francisco Lowry: ERA is 3.19 at home, over 4.00 overall. Extreme fly ball guy though, and wind is out to left at 10-20. He gets no strike outs...so he's one of those guys you want to take in spacious parks when wind isn't an issue.

New York Glavine: ERA is 4.57 on the road, just 3.48 overall
Chicago Zambrano: ERA is 4.21 at home, 3.24 overall, so both guys are in dis-favored spots today

Houston Pettitte: I remember that Pettitte seems to pitch much better when Clemens is around. His ugly first half stats are in line with that. Let's watch to see if he picks up the pace now. Note that he's getting 4.6 K's per game even with the struggles.
Florida Johnson: Great stats since joining the rotation, will fall back to earth some as the league sees him.

Colorado Cook: Extreme ground ball guy with 2.84 ratio, having a great year whatever the ballpark.
Cincinnati Arroyo: 2.52 ERA at home with 7.1 IP per start...it's 3.12 and 6.8 overall. Great stats...but greater at home. Poster boy for changing from AL to NL. Yankees fans should remember that Sidney Ponson is doing the opposite.

Washington Astacio: First road start
Pittsburgh Snell: Bad stats at home, but thinkgs are looking up of late.

Milwaukee Capuano: Ace caliber stats this year, largely ignored by the media.
Arizona Webb: Cy YOung caliber stats but he's slowed down a bit of late

Atlanta Smoltz: 4.41 road ERA on 5.7 IP, compared to 3.60 and 6.5 overall. But...in this park...he's likely to have a good game.
San Diego Park: 3.72 home ERA on 6.6 IP, compared to 4.28 and 6.0 overall. He's always been a guy to post good numbers in pitcher's parks and lousy numbers everywhere else. Texas was INSANE to think he'd pitch well there...the rest of the league was INSANE to think that Texas represented his true level of performance. He's always been capable of these numbers in the right parks.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago Buerhle: 5.17 road ERA compared to 4.02 at home. That foreshadowed today's troubles.
New York Mussina: People only seem to talk about Mussina when he's disappointing everyone. Great stats this year.

Seattle Moyer: 5.08 ERA on the road on 6.2, compared to 3.50 on 6.7 overall. Tough park and offense with that on the resume. And, he's a lefty too.
Toronto Halladay: Consistently awesome, but doesn't get the K's of guys like Santana and Liriano.

Texas Rheineker: 5.23 ERA on 5.7 on the road. Getting no strikeouts
Baltimore Bedard: 3.10 ERA on 6.1 at home. Wind is out 7-12 to right...with a high heat index. Will be interesting to see if that leads to runs after a 2-1 game last night. Late afternoon start will mean shadows on the field though.

Oakland Haren: Ace caliber stats for Haren this year
Boston Schilling: Anyone remember the debate in May about whether or not Schilling was washed up? 3.61 ERA this year on 6.6 IP overall. An average of 6.0 K's per game...1.09 WHIP. Still ace caliber stats. Home numbers are 2.76 on 7.0

Kansas City Gobble: Limited action
Detroit Verlander: 3.91 ERA on 6.1 at home, compared to 3.02 on 6.4 overall. Another guy struggling more in Detroit than on the road. Bullpen (and defense as Spraguer pointed out today in Mess Hall) have been helping these guys out. Tigers 10-0 vs. KC this year.

Cleveland Sabathia: Ace caliber stats (today's the day all the aces are going after the ASB!).
Minnesota Santana: Cy Young caliber stats, including 7.2 K's per game

Tampa Bay Shields (not Kazmir): Getting K's, but struggling otherwise
Los Angeles Santana: 2.90 ERA on 6.5 at home, compared to 3.98 and 6.2 overall. Definitely a lot of strong pitching numbers on the board tonight!

[dinque]

one of the things i look at for n.l. pitcher k props is the opposing pitchers batting #s.a lot of free k's are there sometimes.also low totals may mean more innings pitched

[blogguy]

Sound adivce dinque...

I think I need to be real careful talking about these K props. Yesterday may have been a fluke...but it sure looked to these eyes that reality followed logic very well...and the odds were a bit out of synch with both logic and reality. I've heard a lot from people the past few months talking about "giving away an edge" by posting things in the forum. I normally don't think that's much of an issue. Certainly in the marquee sports where there's a ton of action...you can post things in a forum that probably won't have much of an impact on line movement. With something like this though, it is possible that posting a ton of information my hurt the readers here who are already involved with attacking the K props. If you're interested in playing these things...follow through the logic of what we considered yesterday, and see if that holds up in the coming days.

Sunday may not be a great day to ask for high strikeout totals. Visibility is better in day games than night games...and yesterday was really the first day I played around with this stuff to a serious degree. Most of that was in night games. I'm just going to sit back and watch today, and play around with other possibilities that may impact K-type selections.

A rundown of yesterday:

4 FAVORITES
*Santana of Minnesota over 6.5 -163...wins with 7
*Webb of Arizona over 5.5 -143...wins with 10 (in the only "harmonic convergence" game...we got 10 strikeouts and a winner in the first few innnings)
*Smoltz of Atlanta over 5.5 -125...wins with 6
*Santana of Anaheim...over 4.5 -143 wins with 6

So...that's 4-0 with 29 combined strikeouts from the four guys. The hurdles were cleared by 0.5, 4.5, 0.5, and 1.5...so it's not like they all were blowout wins of course. Though....I was getting boxscore updates every few innings...and Santana, Smoltz, and the other Santana all had a bunch of K's in the first few innings before slowing down later. Probably the nature of the stat.

Others that were mentioned:
*Zambrano of the Cubs at Over 5.5 -168 ended with 7
*Johnson of Florida at Over 5.5 +124 ended with 6 even though he only went 5 innings.
*Pettitte had a late reference but was passed because the moneyline was -185 or something. He ended up with 10 K's
*Arroyo of Cincinnati is the first loser...he was Over 5.5 +162...and the big dog just missed with 5 K's.
*Snell of Pittsburgh was Over 4.5 -143, and ended with 6
*Capuano of Milwaukee was the second loser. He was Over 4.5 -112 but only had one K. Ifyou watched the game, you know he just didn't have anything. Was throwing batting practice. An added benefit of studying this stat closely is that you can probably see when pitchers may be dealing with injuries...or when previously struggling guys are getting their form back (Pettitte). I think this is HUGE in terms of handicapping potential. You should probably try to handicap this prop for that reason alone. If you break even with these...the stuff you learn will help your percentage in your regular plays.

I wimped out on Schilling because the A's as a team had been good at avoiding strikeouts. He had 9. I left out Sabathia in the post for the same reason against the Twins...and he had 7. This suggests that the pitcher is the main dynamic at play here. A guy who gets K's is going to get them regardless of who he's facing if he has his stuff. (It's also a reminder of how many ace caliber pitchers went Saturday...an abnormal day in that regard)

Anyway...the four "favorites" went 4-0....and the next four mentioned went 2-2 with a half-K loser on a huge underdog. If you count Pettitte as one for consideration....that's 7-2 just using the basic fundamentals of logic. Yes...there were some big favorites in the mix...none were losers this time...but one of the -160 guys could have been a headache if things broke differently. You've GOT to have a good percentage if there are going to be prices of 140-160 (or higher) in the mix. It will be interesting to see if logic can keep this up.

Lessons:
*The sharps are playing this prop...and high juice means the sharps are on that play....and it's got a good chance of winning! lol

*Strikeouts seem to have an inherent consistency to them that's not always the case in other things in baseball. Decent K guys will get their K's even if they're giving up hits when the bats connect. Johnson of Florida and Snell of Pittsburgh had poor ERA's for the day....but they still got 6 K's apiece. Capuano is the only guy who just disappeared in the stat...and to the naked eye it looked like he just didn't have anything.

*In fact...this felt like a GREAT naked eye stat. I was watching that MLB's Extra Innings for awhile last night...and watching the Santana's pitch along with Webb...you didn't feel like you had made a bad play. Sometimes you watch a game and go "uh oh" because what you imagined isn't really playing out (football, hoops, bases, whatever). Here you could see that many of the hitter's needed to catch a break to make contact. Same was true when watching Schilling and Sabathia (not part of the post here...but part of a grander blogguy experiment that you can do when you've got the house to yourself lol)

Sometimes your Over 6.5 is going to land on 6...and sometimes Over 5.5 will land on 5...but you're going to be in position to get there with some guys at the plate who are overmatched (as dinque mentions, even moreso in the NL when the pitchers have to hit). It felt a lot like getting your money in the pot with the best cards, as they say in poker.

With so many studs pitching on the same day...it could be that this thing is dormant four days a week...then a million things jump out on that fifth day. I'll keep playing around with it. PM me if you want more details. I think the data indicators here are legit...and this is probably something we should try to protect as a courtesy to the sharps here that have been playing it all along.

blg

[dinque]

here are some i fiddled with

buchholz,olsen,reyes,bush,minor,burnette,fossum over



fogg,l.hern,myers.f.garcia,elarton, under

[blogguy]

Dinque's fiddling (at last lines I saw...his may have been different)

Bucholz Over 4.5 -132
Olsen Over 4.5 -129
Reyes Over 4.5 +139
Bush Over 4.5 -128
Minor Over 4.5 -108
Burnett Over 5.5 -122
Fossum Over 2.5 +175 ish (I typed it in wrong first time thru! Dinque wouldn't lay 190 on something I'm guessing)

Fogg Under 2.5 +104
L. Hernandez Under 3.5 +121
Myers Under 4.5 -129
Garcia Under 3.5 -102
Elarton Under 3.5 -141


PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS BASED ON MONEYLINE PRICES OF 150 OR MORE
Penny Under 4.5 -204
Reyes Under 4.5 -166
Peavy Over 7.5 -156
Cain Over 4.5 -164
Wright Under 3.5 -163
Hernandez Under 5.5 -172
Lopez Under 4.5 -204
Sowers Under 3.5 -217
Fossum Under 2.5 -190

Yesterday these did well...let's see if there's a pattern to the moneylines being unable to spike what the pitchers actually do.


BLOGGUY'S EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE FIDDLING SINCE IT'S MOSTLY A DAYTIME SCHEDULE

Olsen Over 4.5 -129
James Over 4.5 -112
Wasdin Under 2.5 -142

Ballparking it...I'd say I would have had about 50 cent differences in all of those based on the cocktail finder I'm trying to create.

Others that made sense that I'm just kind of watching because it's day action. To me...that means better visibility and fewer strikeouts for the guys who aren't really strikeout guys anyway. Takes a lot to put me on an Over for K's on a Sunday afternoon...less to consider an Under.

Garcia Under 3.5 -102
Lopez Under 4.5 -204 (timidly...but his ERA is 6.80 this year!)
Blanton Under 3.5 -114
Snyder Under 3.5 -144

A temtping huge dog:
Sowers Over 3.5 +197 because the Metrodome has goofy visibility in day games. He hasn't shown much K potential in his 3 starts though. It's tempting because of the dome...not the guy...

Enjoy your Sunday!

[dinque]

thankfully it is fossum over -75

[blogguy]

You sure fiddle well dinque!

Bucholz Over 4.5 -132 (winner with 7)
Olsen Over 4.5 -129 (winner with 6)
Reyes Over 4.5 +139 (winner with 5)
Bush Over 4.5 -128 (loser with 4)
Minor Over 4.5 -108 (loser with 1)
Burnett Over 5.5 -122 (winner with 7)
Fossum Over 2.5 (winner with 4)

Fogg Under 2.5 +104 (loser with 5)
L. Hernandez Under 3.5 +121 (winner with 3)
Myers Under 4.5 -129 (loser with 7)
Garcia Under 3.5 -102 (winner with 3)
Elarton Under 3.5 -141 (winner with 2)

8-4..for the dirty dozen...


PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS BASED ON MONEYLINE PRICES OF 150 OR MORE
Penny Under 4.5 -204 (loss with 5)
Reyes Under 4.5 -166 (loss with 5)
Peavy Over 7.5 -156 (loss with 7)
Cain Over 4.5 -164 (win with 5)
Wright Under 3.5 -163 (win with 1)
Hernandez Under 5.5 -172 (win with 4)
Lopez Under 4.5 -204 (win with 2)
Sowers Under 3.5 -217 (win with 1)
Fossum Under 2.5 -190 (I have may have written this down wrong. If it was Over -190...then it's a winner with 4. If the Under was right...then it's a loser. I was going quickly...and if Dinque was right that it was Over -170 something at the time he got involved...then this is a winner for the sharps).

The record is even in moneyline terms pending the TB result. Note the three losses were al by a half run though...with many of the wins being solid.


BLOGGUY'S EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE FIDDLING SINCE IT'S MOSTLY A DAYTIME SCHEDULE

Olsen Over 4.5 -129 (winner with 6)
James Over 4.5 -112 (loser with 3)
Wasdin Under 2.5 -142 (loser with 3 right before he got knocked out!)

1-2 for those...5-2 for the weekend

Others listed for consideration
Garcia Under 3.5 -102 (winner with 3)
Lopez Under 4.5 -204 (winner with 1)
Blanton Under 3.5 -114 (loses with 4...another late strikout right before he got taken out)
Snyder Under 3.5 -144 (loses with 6...which means Snyder is a guy to watch in the coming days...6 K's vs. the Oakland offense in a day game in Fenway is very strong)

2-2 with these.

A temtping huge dog:
Sowers Over 3.5 +197...no chance, as Sowers only had one strikeout even in the tough visibility of the Metrodome in a day game.

Congrats to dinque! Thanks for sharing the games you were looking at. Feel free to share some of the reasons unless you're afraid that will give away an edge you want to keep private.