National League Pitcher Stats for Friday

[blogguy]

FRIDAY NATIONAL LEAGUE

(I've added in the bullpen rankings from covers.com to include that element in the mix)

NY METS: TRACHSEL
4.68 ERA and 5.6 IP in all starts
4.59 ERA and 5.4 IP on the road
2.7 strikeouts per game
1.58 WHIP
0.87 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 2nd
Nutshell: Has the ERA of an innings muncher, but doesn't actually munch many innings. The strong bullpen is one of the keys...manager isn't afraid to bring in replacements. Fly Ball pitcher with the wind meandering out to center field. Cubs offense hasn't done much with the wind out this year....but they're starting to get healthy. Pretty ugly stats all things considered for Trachsel.

CHICAGO CUBS: MADDUX
4.90 ERA and 6.1 IP in all starts
3.70 ERA and 6.3 IP at home
3.4 strikeouts per game
1.31 WHIP
1.61 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 14th
Nutshell: Road stats are pretty ugly. He's been helped by some low scoring environments in Wrigley this year (cool weather and/or wind blowing in). He ended up giving up some runs (5-2 Mets after 5 innings as I write this) with the wind out.

WASHINGTON: ORTIZ
4.85 ERA and 6.1 IP in all starts
4.96 ERA and 5.9 IP on the road
3.2 strikeouts per game
1.46 WHIP
0.95 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 23rd
Nutshell: Ugly combo when you've got a mediocre or poor starting pitcher with a weak bullpen. Ortiz has been faring better lately (3.10 ERA last 3 starts)

PITTSBURGH: DUKE
5.19 ERA and 6.1 IP in all starts
5.79 ERA and 6.0 IP at home
3.5 strikeouts per game
1.59 WHIP
1.46 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 8th
Nutshell: Pirates have been awful this year even with a good bullpen. Duke has been very bad at home. It should be noted though that most of Pittsburgh's disaster this year has come on the road (20-24 at home, 10-36 on the road). Washington's 18-28 on the road.

COLORADO: JENNINGS
3.68 ERA and 6.7 IP in all starts
3.89 ERA and 6.6 IP on the road
5.0 strikeouts per game
1.35 WHIP
1.02 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 19th
Nutshell: Great year for Jennings. Those are basically ace numbers...or just a shade below them. Well...the WHIP could be a shade lower...but everything else is solid as a rock. Only concern is a flyball guy in Cincinnati's stadium.

CINCINNATI: HARANG
3.71 ERA and 6.6 IP in all starts
5.40 ERA and 6.1 IP at home
6.3 strikeouts per game
1.30 WHIP
1.1 GB/FB ratio (neutral)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 30th
Nutshell: Wow...big strikeout number...and great overall stats for the season. He's having big troubles at home though. It's been a high scoring park this year...and he's not well suited to whatever conditions are causing that. Cincy made a big trade to bolster the bullpen. Let's keep an eye on that to see if there's improvement. They allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in three innings last night (all by Standridge...though Guardado helped by allowing a hit with Standridge's runners on base). Cincy paid a pretty high price to get generic arms that can normally be cobbled together much more cheaply.

HOUSTON: CLEMENS
2.85 ERA and 5.5 IP in all starts
1.48 ERA and 6.1 IP on the road
3.7 strikeouts per game
1.21 WHIP
1.26 GB/FB ratio (neutral)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 20th
Nutshell: Not enough samples to mean anything yet. Assume not as effective as last year...but certainly a middle-rotation guy at worst. Bullpen still shaky.

FLORIDA: SANCHEZ
6.60 ERA and 5.0 IP in all starts
No home starts
2.6 strikeouts per game
1.87 WHIP
0.61 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 18th
Nutshell: Remember that Houston has repeatedly kicked things into gear after the All-Star break in recent years. Last night's late rally makes them 1-0 out of the gate this year.

LOS ANGELES: LOWE
3.89 ERA and 6.3 IP in all starts
4.32 ERA and 6.2 IP on the road
3.2 strikeouts per game
1.29 WHIP
2.82 GB/FB ratio (extreme ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 16th
Nutshell: solid year...though helped by his home park in the overall numbers.

ST. LOUIS: CARPENTER
3.08 ERA and 6.5 IP in all starts
1.70 ERA and 6.6 IP at home
5.7 strikeouts per game
1.20 WHIP
1.49 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 10th
Nutshell: Having a great year, particularly at home. Got to love that ERA/IP combo...then he hands off to the best relievers in a good bullpen. This guy should get more hype than he does as the ace of a perennial contender.

MILWAUKEE: DAVIS
4.95 ERA and 5.8 IP in all starts
7.02 ERA and 5.1 IP on the road
4.3 strikeouts per game
1.56 WHIP
1.19 GB/FB ratio (neutral)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 29th
Nutshell: Wow...a disaster on the road (which kind of summarizes the team as a whole...strong home data, awful road data). If you start with a guy who gets rocked, then bring in the 29th ranked bullpen...bad news indeed. If Arizona has their heads back on straight, they should score here. Hard to get a read. When it looked like they had things fixed, they lost 3 in a row again before winning the first half finale.

ARIZONA: BAUTISTA
5.03 ERA and 6.0 IP in all starts
6.13 ERA and 5.8 IP at home
3.6 strikeouts per game
1.60 WHIP
1.59 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 24th
Nutshell: Poor season, particularly at home. Both of these pitchers are in their worst spots. Do the offenses have enough to ignite and Over.

ATLANTA: HUDSON
4.57 ERA and 6.4 IP in all starts
4.85 ERA and 6.3 IP on the road
4.1 strikeouts per game
1.40 WHIP
1.85 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 21st
Nutshell: Disappointing ERA, then a struggling bullpen comes into replace him. Braves really miss Leo Mazzone.

SAN DIEGO: YOUNG
3.13 ERA and 6.0 IP in all starts
3.94 ERA and 5.7 IP at home
5.7 strikeouts per game
1.09 WHIP
0.45 GB/FB ratio (extreme fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 1st
Nutshell: Great acquisition for the Padres. We may see more of this...okay AL pitchers going to the weaker NL and doing very well. Interestingly, Young's numbers are a bit worse at home even though that's a great park for fly ball pitchers. You'd have to say the Padres have a clear pitching edge in this matchup...with a run better on starter ERA however you slice it, followed up by a bullpen edge (partially park influenced, but not 20 spots worth).

PHILADELPHIA: LIEBER
5.49 ERA and 6.0 IP in all starts
5.00 ERA and 6.7 IP on the road
3.6 strikeouts per game
1.24 WHIP
1.10 GB/FB ratio (neutral...toward fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 5th
Nutshell: Surprising the bullpen rates so well considering how shaky the team has been all year. Talk of trading Abreu may have players thinking fire sale...though he's not doing much these days to help the cause anyway. A lot of posters at the site are expecting a dead second half. Tonight's the first game after the break for Philly.

SAN FRANCISCO: MORRIS
4.30 ERA and 6.3 IP in all starts
3.92 ERA and 6.8 IP at home
3.7 strikeouts per game
1.34 WHIP
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Bullpen Ranking out of 30 teams: 22nd
Nutshell: Good home field numbers...helping to neutralize the bullpen troubles. If Philly is going to phlounder...Morris is a good guy to go against them in this kind of spot.

Got to write up the AL now...I'll post that in a different thread. Feel free to share any comments about the NL you may have...or add in additional statistics you feel are relevant!

[blogguy]

NL "CHEAP FAVORITES" with apparent mound edges:
San Diego -130 vs Atlanta
San Francisco -120 vs. Philly

NL UNDERDOGS with either a decent pitcher, or a possible edge against a struggling pitcher:
Washington +115 at Pittsburgh (anti-Duke)
Colorado: +125 at Cincinnati (pro-Jennings)

NL TOTALS WORTH CONSIDERING BASED ON PITCHING
Los Angeles/St. Louis Under 8.5 (Lowe/Carpenter)
Milwaukee/Arizona Over 9.5 (Davis/Bautista)

Note that the wind should be blowing in at San Diego according to the forecast, which helps Young and the Padres because he's an extreme fly ball pitcher.

Feel free to add in your thoughts on any of these, or other possibilities you're thinking about on the Friday night card.