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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2006, 01:58 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,631
Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Thanks Spraguer!

I greatly appreciate you going into so much depth. You laid it out very clearly in a way that numbers people can understand, and apply to their own methodology...and in a way that will give non-numbers people a sense of how much work goes into serious handicapping. I know a lot of people just play hunches on things and hope for the best, or read the newspaper and hope the matchup numbers hold up.

This shows a better way...a way that allowed a handicapper to get to plus 20 units in a MW contest in record time!

My only quibbles would be:
*I'm still a fan of ERA, so I'm not going to ignore it. I agree that you've got to make adjustments for context...and that extreme numbers can send you off in the wrong direction. For me...I mostly use ERA to help build a profile of a player. Looking over long term numbers, and peripherals...you can get a sense of:

Cy Young caliber
Ace caliber
2-3 in the rotation caliber
Innings Muncher
Cross your fingers and hope

ERA over big enough samples lines up very strongly with those categories, so I'm okay with using it in that light. I'm guessing the 3 outcomes material does as well...so anyone already using those probably doesn't need ERA to supplement.

I have to admit though that my concern with the 3 outcomes approach is that it tends to think of things as random that aren't necessarily random. I think you can tell when a pitcher starts to lose his effectiveness when balls start rocketing around the interior of the ballpark. It doesn't have to be home runs...it can be line shot singles or gappers to the wall. These tell a story but aren't part of the 3 outcomes. Also, I think some pitchers (particularly young ones) are prone to struggle with runners on base. So, negative things can cluster for them in a way that doesn't show up in the 3 outcomes. This stuff DOES show up in ERA, so, personally, I'm for keeping ERA in the arsenal.

The benefits of the 3 outcomes approach are becoming more clear every day in the sabermetric and handicapping worlds. So, I'm not voting for ERA over the 3 outcomes...just suggesting it might be worthy of keeping in the mix. I think everyone reading this should strongly consider placing more weight on the 3 outcomes when they evaluate pitchers. Since I've started playing around with K props...I'm paying more attention to it than ever.

*My goal at the beginning of the thread was to gather things that are easy to find and post every day in a matchup format for readers here. I'm not sure if this really qualifies. You can find the raw materials to 'build the house" pretty easily. And, if you're a whiz with a spreadsheet...then all the stuff is handy. But it's not like any of us can go to a website that has K/6IP or BB/6IP for all the pitchers. I've been cheating and using Don Bests "averages" per start for everyone. That gets me in the ballpark...and saves a bunch of wear and tear for trying to gather everything up.

In a sense...I was hoping we could build a jalopy that would get us from point A to point B...and you're showing us a Formula I race car that may have a bit too much horsepower for many drivers to handle comfortably. If there was a site that posted those "total scores" that you mentioned...that would be a dream come true. I think we all would understand that those numbers were extremely meaningful because they represented very important data...and the differences between pitchers would resonate in a way we could all digest. Trying to swallow the 2.3, 5.9, 1.2 stuff before multiplying it by 6, 21, and 30 doesn't go down quite so easy.

Granting...that it's a meal designed by an expert and jampacked with vitamins and nutrients!

In sum....

Gentle readers...Spraguer has outlined a roadmap to success that you can follow with a bit of research and comfort with spreadsheets (or math by hand). To date, it is the best thought out and most comprehensive approach to handicapping pitchers I've ever seen. I strongly encourage you to apply whatever you can from his approach to yours.

In the meantime...I'll be seeing what I can do to the engine of my jalopy...

Thanks again Spraguer for sharing this in such depth with us!
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 03:24 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 3,422
Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Bloggy, I appreciate the comments.

The ERA debate is a long one. Myself, I think that it is useful for evaluating past performance - but of course that's not the goal in handicapping.

The idea is: past peripherals (K,BB,HR) corellate more strongly with future ERA than does past ERA. It's all about process and results, right? Peripherals are the process, ERA is the result. If you want to know the future result, look to the past process (which is repeatable) rather than the past result (which is enslaved to the process anyhow).

There is information included in ERA that is not included in the scores, but I think that ERA's signal-to-noise ratio is so low that that information would be impossible to discern.

One thing that we can agree on is that K, BB, HR do not tell the whole story. However: much of the remainder of the story is told by context (defence). Batted ball type plays a role too. The scoring system described above rewards groundballers by subtracting points for homeruns, of which the groundballers allow few. By "decontextualizing" a pitcher, and adding in the anticipated context afterward (i.e. team defence), you get [process + context = anticipated result].

At any rate, I really appreciated your comments. You do a wonderful job here in the think tank, Bloggy.

I did a little quick spreadsheeting for the benefit of whomever might actually still be reading this; you can get an idea of what the scale is like and which pitchers are doing well or not so well. Here are the scores to date for 2006, sorted by total score. The numbers are Dominance Score (k/9*21), Command Score (k/bb*21) and Homerun Score (hr/9*30). The last column is the important number, the total Score.

I should note that I don't use the in-season numbers, I use a set of preseason projections that I trust (because pitchers tend to regress to their career means and because the projections are based on a larger sample size).

The numbers are essentially Ron Shandler's BPV, only park-factored for homeruns and without the slight batting average allowed adjustment.

I apologize for the formatting. I've limited the list to pitchers with five or more starts in 2006. The numbers are Dominance Score (k/9*21), Command Score (k/bb*21) and Homerun Score (hr/9*30). The last column is the important number, the total Score.

* = very small sample size warning for <50IP.

Player Team DOM COM HR SCORE
schilling,curt BOS 49.9 162.8 39.5 173.2
santana,johan MIN 56.7 126.9 29.6 154.0
*weaver,jered LAA 48.5 108.0 13.9 142.6
webb,brandon ARZ 41.8 103.2 15.6 129.3
liriano,francis MIN 62.6 87.2 23.4 126.4
*patterson,john WAS 56.4 98.0 31.1 123.3
*burnett,a.j. TOR 52.6 107.6 40.8 119.4
capuano,chris MIL 46.2 91.3 25.6 111.9
mussina,mike NYY 47.6 98.9 34.8 111.7
harang,aaron CIN 51.5 78.4 24.6 105.4
smoltz,john ATL 47.5 84.0 26.3 105.1
bonderman,jerem DET 51.4 71.4 18.7 104.1
martinez,pedro NYM 59.2 83.3 40.9 101.6
peavy,jake SD 59.7 84.7 44.3 100.1
sabathia,c.c. CLE 48.9 80.3 30.8 98.4
baker,scott MIN 46.1 109.7 59.5 96.3
halladay,roy TOR 30.0 87.5 21.8 95.7
bush,dave MIL 45.6 79.7 30.0 95.3
carpenter,chris STL 46.8 75.3 27.0 95.1
oswalt,roy HOU 36.4 74.4 21.9 88.8
penny,brad LAD 41.5 63.0 15.8 88.7
kazmir,scott TB 58.6 59.7 30.0 88.2
vazquez,javier ChW 43.0 64.5 24.1 83.4
*clemens,roger HOU 43.8 57.8 18.6 83.0
haren,danny OAK 41.3 75.8 35.4 81.6
millwood,kevin TEX 36.3 65.5 21.3 80.5
lackey,john LAA 44.4 56.2 21.4 79.2
arroyo,bronson CIN 40.6 65.5 27.5 78.6
hernandez,felix SEA 50.0 63.0 38.0 75.1
schmidt,jason SF 45.0 51.3 24.3 72.0
kim,byung-hyun COL 47.3 48.1 24.1 71.3
maddux,greg ChC 31.4 64.9 25.8 70.4
*eveland,dana MIL 63.5 44.8 38.2 70.1
*harden,rich OAK 52.5 39.7 23.6 68.5
zambrano,carlos ChC 54.0 38.2 24.9 67.3
johnson,randy NYY 46.0 60.1 39.0 67.0
cruz,juan ARZ 48.8 36.8 18.7 66.9
padilla,vicente TEX 44.0 44.4 21.7 66.7
ramirez,elizard CIN 35.3 60.8 29.9 66.2
bedard,erik BAL 43.7 49.4 27.9 65.2
santana,ervin LAA 39.1 48.1 23.2 64.0
johnson,josh FLA 47.9 36.5 22.9 61.5
hamels,cole PHI 53.9 42.0 35.1 60.8
contreras,jose ChW 37.2 48.0 24.6 60.6
escobar,kelvim LAA 40.2 51.8 31.5 60.5
cabrera,daniel BAL 57.0 25.2 22.2 60.1
sele,aaron LAD 32.4 42.0 14.6 59.8
lieber,jon PHI 32.9 65.8 39.1 59.6
myers,brett PHI 45.8 49.2 35.9 59.0
hernandez,orlan NYM 52.8 53.1 47.7 58.2
shields,jamie TB 44.7 41.0 27.7 58.0
jennings,jason COL 39.6 42.9 24.7 57.8
pettitte,andy HOU 43.0 47.6 35.4 55.3
young,chris SD 51.0 57.1 52.9 55.2
lidle,cory PHI 42.1 47.0 34.6 54.5
wright,jaret NYY 32.2 35.8 13.6 54.4
*colon,bartolo LAA 31.9 67.7 45.4 54.2
*lester,jon BOS 48.0 27.7 22.5 53.2
cain,matt SF 47.3 35.0 30.1 52.2
verlander,justi DET 34.6 45.0 27.4 52.2
*miner,zach DET 35.1 42.0 25.3 51.8
meche,gil SEA 44.2 43.4 36.0 51.6
willis,dontrell FLA 33.6 42.5 25.0 51.1
armas,tony WAS 39.2 37.7 26.1 50.8
snell,ian PIT 44.7 41.5 35.6 50.5
olsen,scott FLA 47.7 42.5 40.0 50.3
williams,woody SD 33.4 54.0 37.6 49.8
lilly,ted TOR 48.0 37.7 36.0 49.7
lohse,kyle MIN 40.7 37.6 28.7 49.6
santos,victor PIT 38.3 40.6 29.2 49.6
*gonzalez,enriqu ARZ 33.6 42.0 26.3 49.3
nolasco,ricky FLA 37.6 55.0 44.9 47.7
byrd,paul CLE 30.2 50.4 33.5 47.1
buchholz,taylor HOU 37.9 51.4 42.2 47.1
glavine,tom NYM 37.0 45.8 35.8 47.0
morris,matt SF 32.1 38.8 24.1 46.8
zito,barry OAK 39.2 32.7 25.2 46.6
*marmol,carlos ChC 46.8 30.1 30.6 46.3
hudson,tim ATL 34.5 37.3 25.6 46.2
*duckworth,brand KC 34.6 30.0 19.5 45.1
francis,jeff COL 35.0 32.7 22.6 45.1
*reyes,anthony STL 41.9 50.1 47.3 44.7
park,chan_ho SD 38.3 47.3 41.1 44.5
janssen,casey TOR 25.7 48.2 30.0 43.9
robertson,nate DET 36.6 40.0 33.0 43.6
westbrook,jake CLE 28.5 42.7 27.7 43.6
lowe,derek LAD 28.2 34.7 20.2 42.6
wakefield,tim BOS 36.2 39.1 32.7 42.6
cook,aaron COL 22.4 37.1 17.1 42.3
vargas,claudio ARZ 38.5 45.5 41.7 42.3
perez,odalis LAD 30.8 51.7 41.0 41.5
milton,eric CIN 32.6 54.6 46.7 40.5
lee,cliff CLE 36.6 48.2 44.3 40.5
rogers,kenny DET 31.1 51.0 42.0 40.1
davis,doug MIL 38.8 27.6 26.7 39.7
*loewen,adam BAL 46.2 23.3 30.8 38.7
blanton,joe OAK 28.8 34.8 25.7 38.0
*mitre,sergio FLA 43.2 45.2 50.7 37.7
claussen,brando CIN 40.0 42.8 45.7 37.0
marshall,sean ChC 35.5 29.7 28.2 36.9
tomko,brett LAD 30.9 49.4 43.5 36.7
batista,miguel ARZ 30.7 33.8 28.4 36.1
weaver,jeff STL 36.9 57.5 58.6 35.9
duke,zach PIT 31.0 30.6 26.0 35.6
moyer,jamie SEA 28.9 46.1 39.5 35.5
*taubenheim,ty TOR 40.1 30.3 35.1 35.4
*hill,shawn WAS 23.9 28.0 17.3 34.6
hendrickson,mar LAD 30.3 32.3 28.6 33.9
radke,brad MIN 28.9 48.5 43.8 33.6
garcia,freddy ChW 31.0 50.0 47.6 33.4
rheinecker,john TEX 20.3 33.9 22.1 32.1
washburn,jarrod SEA 28.3 40.7 37.7 31.3
rodriguez,wandy HOU 33.4 27.5 29.7 31.1
maholm,paul PIT 35.4 27.6 32.0 31.1
wang,chien-ming NYY 17.5 27.4 13.8 31.0
ramirez,horacio ATL 23.5 26.5 19.4 30.6
*ohka,tomo MIL 30.2 30.7 30.6 30.3
o'connor,michae WAS 36.0 30.9 37.5 29.4
fogg,josh COL 25.4 29.2 25.3 29.3
buehrle,mark ChW 23.6 38.5 33.0 29.1
beckett,josh BOS 45.0 49.9 65.9 28.9
nieve,fernando HOU 36.5 45.7 54.4 27.8
*day,zach WAS 26.8 24.8 23.9 27.7
koronka,john TEX 25.5 31.5 29.7 27.2
garland,jon ChW 26.8 45.4 45.3 26.8
halsey,brad OAK 31.0 28.2 32.4 26.8
lopez,rodrigo BAL 32.7 41.4 48.4 25.7
silva,carlos MIN 22.5 60.0 56.8 25.7
hensley,clay SD 29.3 29.4 33.4 25.4
clement,matt BOS 35.7 23.8 34.2 25.2
madson,ryan PHI 35.5 33.6 44.3 24.8
loe,kameron TEX 23.5 32.5 31.7 24.3
wright,jamey SF 26.5 26.4 29.2 23.7
*jackson,zach MIL 31.2 33.0 40.9 23.2
*bannister,brian NYM 27.0 17.3 21.1 23.2
thomson,john ATL 30.7 29.5 37.2 23.1
ponson,sidney STL 26.1 23.9 27.7 22.3
ortiz,ramon WAS 27.7 34.6 40.2 22.2
*davies,kyle ATL 46.1 44.5 69.7 20.8
waechter,doug TB 25.5 27.6 32.7 20.5
suppan,jeff STL 29.1 28.2 37.0 20.2
perez,oliver PIT 43.3 25.1 49.3 19.1
*bonser,boof MIN 41.4 47.3 69.7 18.9
thompson,mike SD 24.9 29.6 36.0 18.5
johnson,jason BOS 23.5 27.8 32.8 18.5
benson,kris BAL 25.4 28.5 35.6 18.3
*bautista,denny KC 33.9 27.2 43.4 17.7
seo,jae TB 35.4 35.2 53.0 17.5
rusch,glendon ChC 51.0 42.0 76.1 16.9
hennessey,brad SF 22.9 21.8 28.6 16.2
hernandez,livan WAS 31.3 30.2 47.2 14.2
*dinardo,lenny BOS 32.3 26.3 44.4 14.1
*ortiz,russ BAL 38.8 17.3 42.2 13.9
*billingsley,cha LAD 30.3 14.5 31.8 13.0
trachsel,steve NYM 24.9 21.5 34.8 11.6
mulder,mark STL 29.4 36.0 55.1 10.3
moehler,brian FLA 25.2 27.0 42.1 10.0
pineiro,joel SEA 24.5 27.2 42.1 9.6
sosa,jorge ATL 34.9 37.3 62.9 9.3
lowry,noah SF 23.5 25.5 41.1 7.9
fossum,casey TB 26.7 23.5 42.5 7.7
*wells,kip PIT 25.6 19.3 37.3 7.6
marquis,jason STL 25.2 27.7 45.7 7.2
maroth,mike DET 24.8 30.8 48.7 6.9
chacon,shawn NYY 30.5 20.3 44.4 6.4
*keppel,bobby KC 31.7 28.0 53.4 6.2
*soler,alay NYM 27.6 23.0 46.0 4.6
wood,mike KC 24.4 25.6 49.0 1.0
redman,mark KC 19.9 19.2 38.4 0.7
mcclung,seth TB 25.6 17.0 43.2 -0.6
*vargas,jason FLA 33.1 18.7 52.9 -1.1
loaiza,esteban OAK 25.7 22.6 49.7 -1.5
*zambrano,victor NYM 38.4 28.6 70.1 -3.0
towers,josh TOR 28.9 40.6 72.7 -3.1
*tejeda,robinson TEX 42.4 18.5 64.8 -3.9
*mays,joe CIN 27.6 21.9 53.5 -4.0
affeldt,jeremy KC 22.4 13.8 42.0 -5.8
chacin,gustavo TOR 29.6 25.6 62.5 -7.3
floyd,gavin PHI 33.9 22.3 65.1 -8.8
chen,bruce BAL 37.3 39.5 87.2 -10.5
*williams,dave CIN 21.6 21.0 56.6 -14.0
saarloos,kirk OAK 19.6 16.3 50.0 -14.1
elarton,scott KC 23.2 19.8 69.2 -26.2
*hernandez,runel KC 21.8 24.8 84.9 -38.3
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 02:22 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,631
Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Thanks to Spraguer for posting those numbers!

To make it a bit easier to find guys if you're logging notes in your schedule, or on a matchup chart of some kind, I've alphabetized the list. Trying to find 30 guys a day is tough on old eyes! Took me about 15 minutes to find Zach Day...but I kept finding the other Zach's over and over again, lol.

This should help any of you with the some issues...and should encourage others to track down the data of pitchers you're thinking of backing. Whenever you find a number quickly and easily, remember to thank your friendly neighborhood blogguy for alphabetizing the list!


affeldt,jeremy KC 22.4 13.8 42.0 -5.8
armas,tony WAS 39.2 37.7 26.1 50.8
arroyo,bronson CIN 40.6 65.5 27.5 78.6
baker,scott MIN 46.1 109.7 59.5 96.3
*bannister,brian NYM 27.0 17.3 21.1 23.2
batista,miguel ARZ 30.7 33.8 28.4 36.1
*bautista,denny KC 33.9 27.2 43.4 17.7
beckett,josh BOS 45.0 49.9 65.9 28.9
bedard,erik BAL 43.7 49.4 27.9 65.2
benson,kris BAL 25.4 28.5 35.6 18.3
*billingsley,cha LAD 30.3 14.5 31.8 13.0
blanton,joe OAK 28.8 34.8 25.7 38.0
bonderman,jerem DET 51.4 71.4 18.7 104.1
*bonser,boof MIN 41.4 47.3 69.7 18.9
buchholz,taylor HOU 37.9 51.4 42.2 47.1
buehrle,mark ChW 23.6 38.5 33.0 29.1
*burnett,a.j. TOR 52.6 107.6 40.8 119.4
bush,dave MIL 45.6 79.7 30.0 95.3
byrd,paul CLE 30.2 50.4 33.5 47.1
cabrera,daniel BAL 57.0 25.2 22.2 60.1
cain,matt SF 47.3 35.0 30.1 52.2
capuano,chris MIL 46.2 91.3 25.6 111.9
carpenter,chris STL 46.8 75.3 27.0 95.1
chacin,gustavo TOR 29.6 25.6 62.5 -7.3
chacon,shawn NYY 30.5 20.3 44.4 6.4
chen,bruce BAL 37.3 39.5 87.2 -10.5
claussen,brando CIN 40.0 42.8 45.7 37.0
*clemens,roger HOU 43.8 57.8 18.6 83.0
clement,matt BOS 35.7 23.8 34.2 25.2
*colon,bartolo LAA 31.9 67.7 45.4 54.2
cook,aaron COL 22.4 37.1 17.1 42.3
contreras,jose ChW 37.2 48.0 24.6 60.6
cruz,juan ARZ 48.8 36.8 18.7 66.9
*davies,kyle ATL 46.1 44.5 69.7 20.8
davis,doug MIL 38.8 27.6 26.7 39.7
*day,zach WAS 26.8 24.8 23.9 27.7
*dinardo,lenny BOS 32.3 26.3 44.4 14.1
*duckworth,brand KC 34.6 30.0 19.5 45.1
duke,zach PIT 31.0 30.6 26.0 35.6
elarton,scott KC 23.2 19.8 69.2 -26.2
escobar,kelvim LAA 40.2 51.8 31.5 60.5
*eveland,dana MIL 63.5 44.8 38.2 70.1
floyd,gavin PHI 33.9 22.3 65.1 -8.8
fogg,josh COL 25.4 29.2 25.3 29.3
fossum,casey TB 26.7 23.5 42.5 7.7
francis,jeff COL 35.0 32.7 22.6 45.1
garcia,freddy ChW 31.0 50.0 47.6 33.4
garland,jon ChW 26.8 45.4 45.3 26.8
glavine,tom NYM 37.0 45.8 35.8 47.0
*gonzalez,enriqu ARZ 33.6 42.0 26.3 49.3
halladay,roy TOR 30.0 87.5 21.8 95.7
halsey,brad OAK 31.0 28.2 32.4 26.8
hamels,cole PHI 53.9 42.0 35.1 60.8
harang,aaron CIN 51.5 78.4 24.6 105.4
*harden,rich OAK 52.5 39.7 23.6 68.5
haren,danny OAK 41.3 75.8 35.4 81.6
hendrickson,mar LAD 30.3 32.3 28.6 33.9
hennessey,brad SF 22.9 21.8 28.6 16.2
hensley,clay SD 29.3 29.4 33.4 25.4
hernandez,felix SEA 50.0 63.0 38.0 75.1
hernandez,livan WAS 31.3 30.2 47.2 14.2
hernandez,orlan NYM 52.8 53.1 47.7 58.2
*hernandez,runel KC 21.8 24.8 84.9 -38.3
*hill,shawn WAS 23.9 28.0 17.3 34.6
hudson,tim ATL 34.5 37.3 25.6 46.2
*jackson,zach MIL 31.2 33.0 40.9 23.2
janssen,casey TOR 25.7 48.2 30.0 43.9
jennings,jason COL 39.6 42.9 24.7 57.8
johnson,jason BOS 23.5 27.8 32.8 18.5
johnson,josh FLA 47.9 36.5 22.9 61.5
johnson,randy NYY 46.0 60.1 39.0 67.0
kazmir,scott TB 58.6 59.7 30.0 88.2
kim,byung-hyun COL 47.3 48.1 24.1 71.3
*keppel,bobby KC 31.7 28.0 53.4 6.2
koronka,john TEX 25.5 31.5 29.7 27.2
lackey,john LAA 44.4 56.2 21.4 79.2
lee,cliff CLE 36.6 48.2 44.3 40.5
*lester,jon BOS 48.0 27.7 22.5 53.2
lidle,cory PHI 42.1 47.0 34.6 54.5
lieber,jon PHI 32.9 65.8 39.1 59.6
lilly,ted TOR 48.0 37.7 36.0 49.7
liriano,francis MIN 62.6 87.2 23.4 126.4
loaiza,esteban OAK 25.7 22.6 49.7 -1.5
loe,kameron TEX 23.5 32.5 31.7 24.3
*loewen,adam BAL 46.2 23.3 30.8 38.7
lohse,kyle MIN 40.7 37.6 28.7 49.6
lopez,rodrigo BAL 32.7 41.4 48.4 25.7
lowe,derek LAD 28.2 34.7 20.2 42.6
lowry,noah SF 23.5 25.5 41.1 7.9
maddux,greg ChC 31.4 64.9 25.8 70.4
madson,ryan PHI 35.5 33.6 44.3 24.8
maholm,paul PIT 35.4 27.6 32.0 31.1
*marmol,carlos ChC 46.8 30.1 30.6 46.3
maroth,mike DET 24.8 30.8 48.7 6.9
marquis,jason STL 25.2 27.7 45.7 7.2
marshall,sean ChC 35.5 29.7 28.2 36.9
martinez,pedro NYM 59.2 83.3 40.9 101.6
*mays,joe CIN 27.6 21.9 53.5 -4.0
mcclung,seth TB 25.6 17.0 43.2 -0.6
meche,gil SEA 44.2 43.4 36.0 51.6
millwood,kevin TEX 36.3 65.5 21.3 80.5
milton,eric CIN 32.6 54.6 46.7 40.5
*miner,zach DET 35.1 42.0 25.3 51.8
*mitre,sergio FLA 43.2 45.2 50.7 37.7
moehler,brian FLA 25.2 27.0 42.1 10.0
morris,matt SF 32.1 38.8 24.1 46.8
moyer,jamie SEA 28.9 46.1 39.5 35.5
mulder,mark STL 29.4 36.0 55.1 10.3
mussina,mike NYY 47.6 98.9 34.8 111.7
myers,brett PHI 45.8 49.2 35.9 59.0
nieve,fernando HOU 36.5 45.7 54.4 27.8
nolasco,ricky FLA 37.6 55.0 44.9 47.7
o'connor,michae WAS 36.0 30.9 37.5 29.4
*ohka,tomo MIL 30.2 30.7 30.6 30.3
olsen,scott FLA 47.7 42.5 40.0 50.3
ortiz,ramon WAS 27.7 34.6 40.2 22.2
*ortiz,russ BAL 38.8 17.3 42.2 13.9
oswalt,roy HOU 36.4 74.4 21.9 88.8
padilla,vicente TEX 44.0 44.4 21.7 66.7
park,chan_ho SD 38.3 47.3 41.1 44.5
*patterson,john WAS 56.4 98.0 31.1 123.3
peavy,jake SD 59.7 84.7 44.3 100.1
penny,brad LAD 41.5 63.0 15.8 88.7
perez,odalis LAD 30.8 51.7 41.0 41.5
perez,oliver PIT 43.3 25.1 49.3 19.1
pettitte,andy HOU 43.0 47.6 35.4 55.3
pineiro,joel SEA 24.5 27.2 42.1 9.6
ponson,sidney STL 26.1 23.9 27.7 22.3
radke,brad MIN 28.9 48.5 43.8 33.6
ramirez,elizard CIN 35.3 60.8 29.9 66.2
ramirez,horacio ATL 23.5 26.5 19.4 30.6
redman,mark KC 19.9 19.2 38.4 0.7
*reyes,anthony STL 41.9 50.1 47.3 44.7
rheinecker,john TEX 20.3 33.9 22.1 32.1
robertson,nate DET 36.6 40.0 33.0 43.6
rodriguez,wandy HOU 33.4 27.5 29.7 31.1
rogers,kenny DET 31.1 51.0 42.0 40.1
rusch,glendon ChC 51.0 42.0 76.1 16.9
sabathia,c.c. CLE 48.9 80.3 30.8 98.4
santana,ervin LAA 39.1 48.1 23.2 64.0
santana,johan MIN 56.7 126.9 29.6 154.0
santos,victor PIT 38.3 40.6 29.2 49.6
saarloos,kirk OAK 19.6 16.3 50.0 -14.1
schilling,curt BOS 49.9 162.8 39.5 173.2
schmidt,jason SF 45.0 51.3 24.3 72.0
sele,aaron LAD 32.4 42.0 14.6 59.8
seo,jae TB 35.4 35.2 53.0 17.5
shields,jamie TB 44.7 41.0 27.7 58.0
silva,carlos MIN 22.5 60.0 56.8 25.7
smoltz,john ATL 47.5 84.0 26.3 105.1
snell,ian PIT 44.7 41.5 35.6 50.5
*soler,alay NYM 27.6 23.0 46.0 4.6
sosa,jorge ATL 34.9 37.3 62.9 9.3
suppan,jeff STL 29.1 28.2 37.0 20.2
*taubenheim,ty TOR 40.1 30.3 35.1 35.4
*tejeda,robinson TEX 42.4 18.5 64.8 -3.9
thomson,john ATL 30.7 29.5 37.2 23.1
thompson,mike SD 24.9 29.6 36.0 18.5
tomko,brett LAD 30.9 49.4 43.5 36.7
towers,josh TOR 28.9 40.6 72.7 -3.1
trachsel,steve NYM 24.9 21.5 34.8 11.6
vargas,claudio ARZ 38.5 45.5 41.7 42.3
*vargas,jason FLA 33.1 18.7 52.9 -1.1
vazquez,javier ChW 43.0 64.5 24.1 83.4
verlander,justi DET 34.6 45.0 27.4 52.2
waechter,doug TB 25.5 27.6 32.7 20.5
wakefield,tim BOS 36.2 39.1 32.7 42.6
wang,chien-ming NYY 17.5 27.4 13.8 31.0
washburn,jarrod SEA 28.3 40.7 37.7 31.3
weaver,jeff STL 36.9 57.5 58.6 35.9
*weaver,jered LAA 48.5 108.0 13.9 142.6
webb,brandon ARZ 41.8 103.2 15.6 129.3
*wells,kip PIT 25.6 19.3 37.3 7.6
westbrook,jake CLE 28.5 42.7 27.7 43.6
*williams,dave CIN 21.6 21.0 56.6 -14.0
williams,woody SD 33.4 54.0 37.6 49.8
willis,dontrell FLA 33.6 42.5 25.0 51.1
wood,mike KC 24.4 25.6 49.0 1.0
wright,jamey SF 26.5 26.4 29.2 23.7
wright,jaret NYY 32.2 35.8 13.6 54.4
young,chris SD 51.0 57.1 52.9 55.2
zambrano,carlos ChC 54.0 38.2 24.9 67.3
*zambrano,victor NYM 38.4 28.6 70.1 -3.0
zito,barry OAK 39.2 32.7 25.2 46.6
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 06:05 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Thanks Bloggy; I never thought to alphabetize.
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Old 07-19-2006, 11:00 PM
cash cash is offline
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Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

nice work guys...thanx alot
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:49 PM
Soonerfan64 Soonerfan64 is offline
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Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Spraguer,


I also found this, just like Blog mentioned, the most effort I have ever seen at evaluating pitchers. I am impressed.

I do have a couple of questions, if you don't mind answering them. Where are you getting the park home run numbers and how are you coming up with your numbers on defense? If you have already stated this, please excuse, I have read through the posts but haven't really had the time to digest all as of yet.

I am looking forward to giving this a test drive factoring in the umpire stats.


Thanks guys
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Old 07-22-2006, 12:31 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

Glad somebody is watching, Sooner.

You can find park factors for a number of stats, for major and minor league parks here: BTF 2003-2005 Weighted Park Factors

As for defence, I switched to a new approach this year. Defensive metrics are a bit more art than science, but I am partial to Runs Above Average on Clay Davenport's Translation Team Pages; for example, here is the Red Sox page: Red Sox DT Page

Look for the RAA2 column and add the team total from each position. For the Red Sox (around the horn from catcher to rightfield: -4, +2, -1, +13 (Lowell!), 0, -8 (Manny!), +4, +1. That is a total of +7, or seven runs that the Red Sox defence has been worth, relative to the average. They have done this over 94 games. So you've got 7/94, or 0.07 runs per game. Nearly an average defence, but you can shave .07 runs off of your Sox pitchers' projections. By contrast, the Tigers defence has been worth .37 runs per game; the Pirates' defence has been as bad as the Tigers' has good, worth -0.36 runs per game (or .36 worse than average).

If you're going to do this, there are a few things that you should remember. Finding reliable projections or regressing pitchers' 2006 performance toward their career numbers or reasonable projections is key - small sample size is a cold bitch and she'll bite you in the ass if you're not careful. Also, when doing whatever you are going to do to convert the pitchers' score into runs/9innings, make sure that you are using runs/9, not earned runs/9 as your scale (they will accord better with your offensive numbers that way).
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Old 07-31-2006, 07:32 PM
Hoppy Hoppy is offline
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Default Okay...let's try something out here for a week...

thanks for this thread, i can learn a lot more than i can contribute, sorry bout that. but something i like to consider on the pitchers is do they throw 1st pitch strikes, and is it a free swinging 1st pitch hitting offense.
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