NCAA Baseball Regional analysis and ideas

[BuzzRavanaugh]

16 Regionals--The Greek will have lines for the regional winners and he may post some individual games. Information is tough to gather on the regionals while they are going on.

5 Dimes will probably have some stuff as well.

Here they are and a quick thoughts:

Houston Regional

Rice, Arizona State Baylor and Prairie View---Rice is the national #2 seed, good pitching and a very smart hitting and base running crew. Arizona State is a traditional power that I don't know much about. Baylor has had a nice year but went a disappointing 1-2 in the Big 12 tourney. Prairie View--2 and barbecue.

Norman Regional

Oklahoma, Houston, Wichita State, TCU---Oklahoma had a great season but is struggling down the stretch. I think they are very vulnerable here. Wichita St is also struggling down the stretch, they have an incredible pitching staff who is not pitching very well right now but an ineffective offense. Wichita State owns a season sweep over Oklahoma. TCU don't know but can't believe they will be competitive here---I look for a quality Houston team to win this regional. Houston was in the hunt to earn a national seed. They have been knocking heads with Rice all year and they want a super regional chance. I am looking for +250 on Houston but will take +175.

Charlottesville Regional

Virginia, S. Carolina, Evansville, Lehigh---Virginia was not a national seed this year after being ranked as high as 3. They disappointed in the ACC tourney--they are lead by Sean Doolittle who pitches and hits and is fun to watch. I watched Evansville play in person 3 times this weekend. They are a good team who is playing good right now. S. Carolina need to do some work on but I think this is all Virginia--they move on to Super Regional.

Athens Regional

Georgia, Florida State, Jacksonville, Sacred Heart-- Georgia brings a #7 national seed into them with this-- a definite stumble in the SEC tourney where they probably didn't care. Florida State is the ACC tourney champion and a threat. Usually the better teams in this type of regional come out on top and I see Georgia advancing probably pretty easily.

The winners of these regional advance into super regional play. Back with more tonight.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Lincoln Regional

Nebraska, Miami(Fl), San Francisco, Manhattan---Lets talk about the NCAA baseball selection committee--they are all pretty much southern gentlemen who treat the regional system as their own personal tournament. They always have favored the southern teams--this year they took enough crap that they gave some breaks to west coast teams. Miami gets punished and sent back out to Nebraska where they lost a Super Regional series last year. Nebraska's home court is going to be very compelling--they come with some great pitchers and probably the best coach in the tournament, think they will be tough here and will enjoy tremendous support from the home crowd. San Francisco is a quality squad, but maybe in over their head. Miami is tough and John Jay may be my favorite college player --they have a key injury to their pitching staff.

Oxford Regional

Mississippi, Tulane, S. Alabama, Bethune Cookman---I think Mississippii may be vulnerable here--need to study but I think Tulane is a quality squad who butted heads with Rice and a great team is South Alabama and they may be the play here. Will be back with more here.

Corvallis Regional

Oregon State, Kansas, Hawaii, Wright St-- Oregon State is a developing national power this is one of their weaker teams but are still quality squad. Kansas is the Big 12 Tourney champion and Hawaii was the Baseball America team of the weak. Very compelling regional--this is a regional where the favorite comes through and its tough to go up and win at Oregon State.

Austin Regional

Texas, North Carolina State, Stanford and Texas-Arlington---Texas is the national #3 seed will be very difficult to beat them--they are the defending champion. They probably sail through this thing but you never know. Texas is very young and has very young pitching--they lost to Nebraska in the Big 12 tourney because the young arms didn't fire. They probably sail through this regional but if they lose on Friday -- they may not have the pitching depth to get through the regional's loser bracket. NC State had a bunch of great wins in the ACC tourney beating North Carolina and Virginia. They make this competitive.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Clemson Regional

Clemson, Elon, Mississippi St, UNC Asheville---Clemson the national #1 seed. They are a powerful hitting team and they should coast through this regional. Mississippi State can't even qualify for their own conference tourney but snare a 3 seed. Elon has some nice wins but is probably the weakest #2 seed in the tourney and Asheville is probably the worst team in the tourney.

Fayetteville Regional

Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oral Roberts, Princeton---Great regional here. Nobody has probably played as well down the stretch as Okie State before they get swept in the Big 12 tourney. If they find their form this weekend they win this regional. Arkansas gets to host as a #2 seed as they will draw huge this weekend and make oodles of dollars. Oral Roberts is also a very good team with two good pitchers. I kind of see Oral Roberts and Oklahoma State to play in the winners bracket--ORU probably can't hang in the losers bracket setting up probably a Arkansas, OSU championship--would be very difficult to beat OSU twice going through the losers brackets.

Atlanta Regional

Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Stetson-- Georgia Tech brings the national #8 seed. Vandy found their stroke last weekend. Michiga is a decent northern club. Georgia Tech sails through this though.

Lexington Regional

Kentucky, Charleston, Notre Dame, Ball State--- Great regional here. Kentucky had a great year one of the top seeds in the polls- they go 2 and barbecue at the SEC tourney and I think they are up against it here. Charleston is a great squad with quality wins up and down their roster a top 25 team all year. Notre Dame has a great pitcher and some great defense they will be the popular pick. Ball State also is a top 40 squad. I look for Charleston to be the mid-major surprise here.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Tuscaloosa Regional

Alabama, Troy, Southern Miss, Jacksonville State---Alabama brings the #4 National Seed into this regional and probably a great chance to move. Troy is interesting #2 seed really good team--lots of talent and a great record this year. Does this translate into success in the big time--probably not here.

Chapel Hill Regional

North Carolina, Winthrop, UNC Wilmington, Maine--North Carolina didn't get a national seeding they did go two and barbecue at the ACC tourney and have basically had a great year. They are led by ace pitcher and possible #1 draft choice and I am not sure of his name--he comes into the regional with two losses and two bad performances. Can he rebound at home and can they move on probably---however I really like this Winthrop (unfortunately so did the talking head at ESPN) they own wins over Miami, South Carolina and other top twenty teams. Very good team. If you think UNC is vulnerable this is the play. Probably not a great value +150ish or so--probably a pass but may be worth a look later this week.

Malibu Regional

Pepperdine, UCLA, UC-Irvine, Missouri--- here is the selection committees idea of a reward. Pepperdine is a very good team they get rewarded with a regional. However any of these teams could win this regional. Missouri has two very good pitchers and are playing good after going 2-1 in the Big 12 tourney they were a top 10 team last year--this years injuries play a part but they are healing and playing better--huge threat. UCLA is a solid west coast team, powerful just not as consistent as you want but a good team. #3 UC-Irvine is the team I like---this team is a huge secret--have incredible talent a ton of wins and if they could get past UCLA on Friday they are a huge threat to win this. Toughest regional of the bunch. There may be some money to be made on this one.

Fullerton Regional

Cal State Fullerton, Fresno State, San Diego, St. Louis--Fullerton brings the national #5 seed into this tourney and I say they get throug. Though this is great competition--San Diego had huge wins early in the year and thier conference got multiple bids. Fresno State is solid as well. Tough play.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Some interesting statistics I ran across today:

Since the tourney has expanded to 64 teams the National Seeds (1 through 8)--66% advance to Omaha. 86% have won their regionals.

If you are a national seed you probably go onto the Super Regional.

Here is a little more research that I did: This is the Div 1 record, record against the top 50 and their last 10 games and RPI. I think it reveals some good info. Not that anybody is reading this.

Clemson Regional

Clemson 47-14 27-10 Against Top 50 9-1 L10 and #1 RPI
Elon 44-16 5-9 Against Top 50 7-3 L10 and #24 RPI
Miss St 35-21 9-18 Against Top 50 4-6 L10-- Why are they here??? #33 RPI--BS
UNC-Asheville 28-33 1-6 against top 50 5-5 L10 #154 RPI

Fayetville Regional

Oklahoma St 39-18 (7-10 on the road) 11-15 Top 50 6-4L10 (3L's in a row) RPI #17
Arkansas 38-19 (20-6 at home) 16-13 Top 50 6-4 L10 #16 RPI
Oral Roberts 35-14 4-5 top 50 9-1L 10 #51 RPI
Princeton 19-24 0-0 Top 50 7-3 L10 #228 RPI

Lexington Regional

Kentucky 42-15 (29-4 at home) 17-9 Top 50 6-4 (3 Losses) #23 RPI
Coll of Charleston 43-15 (13-14) 7-5 Top 50 6-4 L10 (4 Wins) #19 RPI
Notre Dame 44-15 0-0 Top 50 7-3 Last 10 #41 RPI
Ball State 37-20 1-3 Top 50 8-2 Last 10 #78 RPI

Atlanta Regional

Georgia Tech 45-16 (29-5 at home) 16-10 Top 50 7-3 Last 10 #3 RPI
Vanderbilt 36-25 15-16 Top 50 7-3 Last 10 #36 RPI
Michigan 42-19 2-3 Top 50 9-1 Last 10 #44 RPI
Stetson 38-22 4-5 Top 50 8-2 Last 10 #72

Georgia Tech's power hitter Hodges has a stress fracture he can only DH/PH during the tourney he hit .342 and 62RBI. They also will do without their closer Gustafson until the Super Regionals.

[Spraguer]

I'm reading, Buzz. Just started my research... I think that Vandy may be worth a shot in Atlanta at +575. They should be able to outpitch the Wreck... their rotation will be interesting. If they are set up so that David Price (147 k, 38 bb, 104 ip) gets a shot at GTech, they could win.

Vandy has played a tougher schedule than GTech, for what that's worth. GTech pitching is suspect. Their leaders in games started, Wood and Duncan, are sporting 5.02 and 5.50 ERAs, respectively. They have some better pitchers who have spot started, so, like with Vandy, the rotation setting will be key. The pitching staff as a whole has poor numbers, which means one of two things: either their pitching is just bad, or they have played a majority of their games in a high-scoring environment. If it's the latter, then their offense may not be as good as it looks (it looks fantastic!).

The problem with picking Vandy is that they have a chance at getting their first loss right off the bat, whereas there is virtually no chance of Stetson beating GTech.

Florida State is tempting in Athens, but I'll go with Georgia.

I'll be looking over the other regionals tomorrow.

If you have a source for injury and rotation info, I'd love to see it. Let's see if we can put our heads together on a couple of these, Buzzy.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

You got it Spraguer. Rotations are tough to figure out and follow.

I was just talking to somebody the problem with these two seeds is they are in a war on Friday night meanwhile the the #1 seed coasts into Saturday. Getting the first win is 1/2 the battle in these things.

Georgia Tech has an awesome offense---losing a key piece they may be primed. This has been a great year for the ACC.

I like Fresno St +500 but I don't know if they get beat San Diego on Friday night who swept Texas right out of the gate.

Lexington may be a decent spot I look for Ball State +650 to turn that regional on its ears on Friday and if Notre Dame can "upset" Charleston we got us a battle. I think I may take Ball State but I don't think a #4 has ever won.

In the Malibu regional it is all a toss up and I like UC-Irvine +250 will also play Missouri as they may be rolling at +550 --Missouri was a top ten type team that is just recovering from injuries. They will have the best pitching in Malibu.

In Norman I will take Houston +250 who I think will stroll past Wichita State and then try to outlast Oklahoma.

[Spraguer]

Yeah, the one seeds have a huge advantage, especially in Regionals with cupcake four seeds, like Stetson in Atlanta.
That means that a key for finding viable number twos is to find strong number fours who will give the ones a battle or perhaps a first loss.

With on Irvine, by the way.