Blogguy

Bostongambler · 05-29-2006, 10:22 PM

BG, Have you ever run anything as far as total to a specific #.

In other words, which total has the most % of going over. And which # has the best % of staying under.

ty

blogguy · 05-30-2006, 12:38 AM

Sorry BG...haven't seen anything like that. I read an article recently that said pushes are more common on odd baseball numbers than on even baseball numbers (makes sense when you think about it). But....I haven't seen anything like you've mentioned.

I only know that if I take an Under, great pitchers will get rocked...and if I take an Over...strong offenses will go hitless against rag arms.

Hope that helps...lol...

datadriven · 05-30-2006, 04:17 AM

I ran the numbers for 05 (left out the pushes)

Line-Overs-Unders-%Over

6.5: 7-6 =53.8
7: 45-41 =53.8
7.5: 140-135 =52.3
8: 128-140 =47.8
8.5: 184-243 =43.1
9: 211-244 =46.4
9.5: 187-212 =46.9
10: 90-81 =52.6
10.5: 57-53 =51.8
11: 21-25 =45.7
11.5: 15-17 =46.9
12: 6-8 =42.9
12.5: 10-8 =55.5
13: 4-5 =44.4
13.5: 1-0 =100

BetOnME · 05-30-2006, 04:36 PM

Those are some intersting numbers data. good job compiling all that data. thanks for the good info. now lets put it to work

blogguy · 05-30-2006, 05:18 PM

Thanks for posting those Datadriven!

I'm not sure how exactly to apply those to this year. We're having more run scoring so far this season...so it could be that there's not an application. Hopefully some readers can share their thoughts on the possibilities.

I naturally see clusters in data like that...so I figured I'd write it up:

7.5 or less: 192-182 to the Over
8 to 9.5: 710-840 to the Under
10 to 10.5: 147-134 to the Over
11 to 12: 42-50 to the Under
12.0 and up: 15-13 to the Over

OVER RANGES
7.5 or less: 51% to the Over (note that DD has 140-135 as a 52.3% record, but it's not that high).

10 to 10.5: 52.3%
12.0 and up: 54%

UNDER RANGES
8 to 9.5: 54% to the Under
11 to 12: 54% to the Under

As SickGambler reported a few times up in the MESS HALL, last year was an Under year. There wasn't really any good way to make money on Overs back in 2005. Unders had a 53% edge for the season...but better than that if you happened to have anticipated in advance that the biggest edges would come in the 8-9.5 and 11-12 ranges.

Jury is still out on this year. Scoring has calmed down some the past few days (except in the games where I had the Under, lol).

Thanks again for the question BG, and for the data DD....

Any ideas BetOnMe how we can put it to work?

Bostongambler · 05-30-2006, 11:18 PM

Thanks Data and BG----