Quick Notes on Saturday Gradings

[blogguy]

Edited at about 7:30 p.m. ET...

First...here are the updated records through Friday night's action:

SYSTEM PLAYS (-179 or less moneylines with gradings of +2.5 points or more in our methodology:

12-6...+3.57 units (average loss with a fav of about -140)

SYSTEM "BIG" FAVORITES (180 or more on moneylines with gradings of +2.5 points or more inour methodology:

7-1...+3.00 units (only loss was NYY -400 Friday night)

SYSTEM TOTALS:
6-5...+1.00 unit

1.5 RUN FAVORITES (any grading of 2.5 points or more that's being played in a hitter's park as defined by the ballpark indices)
10-4...+7.24 units (underdog payoffs boosting profit)

COIN FLIP UNDERDOGS (just take the dog in any game that shows the teams within 2 points of each other in the math)

16-19...+0.48 units (helped greatly by Marlins beating Pedro. Record would be 16-13 and +5.48 units if we didn't play games involving slumping A's! As I said earlier, you can't know who's going to slump. The point of this is to just grind out cents because 9 innings between comparable teams is a virtual coin flip, and nobody should really be favored. We'll see if that hold ups. It's actually the basic framework of many MLB handicapping strategies. That's why so many "sharps" belive in underdogs to begin with.

Here's the listing of the Saturday gradings...I didn't end up finding any totals. I keep tinkering with "half" points on some of the tweener teams (should I make them a 2 or a 2.5, etc..) Today's tinkering ended up ruling out any qualifiers. Probably for the best.


SYSTEM (keys to the tabulation in parenthesis)
LA Dodgers -150 vs. Montreal (starter and offense)
Philadelphia -130 vs. Milwaukee (bullpen and offense)
Cincinnati -150 vs. Arizona (starter, home offense, home field)
Detroit -155 vs. Cleveland (everything)
Minnesota -120 vs. Seattle (bullpen, home offense, home field)

BIG FAVORITES
NYY -370 vs. Kansas City
Boston -310 vs. Tampa Bay

1.5 RUN LINES (gradings in hitter's parks)
Philadelphia -1.5 +150
Cincinnati -1.5 +130 or so (can't recall)
Boston -1.5 -170 or so (in a hurry!)
Again, Minnesota's on the borderline. We've had them there twice, and they're 1-1 with a huge payoff in the win. But...since that game ended 3-1, maybe they turned the air conditioning on and it's back to a neutral park! Not particularly motivated to ask for a blowout against Moyer with a guy who was in Sha-Na-Na

No Kazmir club qualifiers today...Kazmer was the only guy who didn't win in 5 innings yesterday, and he took a lead into the bottom of the fifth.


COIN FLIP DOGS
Chicago Cubs +110
Florida +140
San Diego +125
Pittsburgh +105
Colorado +145
Toronto +120
Texas +105 (forgot A's weren't a dog today!)
Baltimore+125

[blogguy]

Records after Saturday:

System (179 or less): 15-8...+3.77 units
System (180 or more) 9-1...+5.00 units
Totals: 6-5...+1.00 unit
1.5 Run Favorites: 11-6...+6.24 units
Coin Flip Dogs: 18-24...minus 3.27 units