Friday Gradings (5/26)

[blogguy]

I won't have time to post all the numbers for every game. Those of you who are interested should be doing that on your own already. Those of you who aren't interested should GET INTERESTED!

SYSTEM PLAYS (gradings at -179 or less)
Detroit -134 vs. Cleveland
Minnesota -124 vs. Seattle
LAA -145 vs. Baltimore
(Note that the Angels grade because of Baltimore's bad bullpen. As JDD pointed out, the O's have improved in that area lately. If you lift them to a 2 from a 1 in that category, this falls into the coin flip category instead. I'll leave it up to you guys. I don't have a problem taking a team on the rebound after a slump against Chen, lol)

BIG FAVORITES
NYY -400 vs. Kansas City
(Interestingly, the Mets and Martinez didn't grade in Florida because the Marlins have a decent starter, and have been scoring enough runs to boost their point total)

SYSTEM TOTALS
Atlanta/Chicago Cubs Under 7.5
St. Louis/San Diego Under 8
Kansas City/NYY Under 9.5
Oakland/Texas Over 10.5
(We keep getting Royals Unders every day because they're running into good pitchers. I'll leave it on the list today, but I'm holding my nose. It's very hard to trust that pitching staff during an Under)

1.5 RUN FAVORITES
No official games because none of the gradings show up in hitter's parks. Minnesota -1.5 +181 is borderline because that is a good scoring park before the AC gets turned on. Last time we listed them as borderline, Santana was staked to a huge early lead and blew it in what turned out to be a 7-6 win. So....this is officially a pass for the category. Consider Minnesota if you wish.

COIN FLIP DOG LIST
Chicago Cubs +110
Washington +109
(Milwaukee is a pass because there's no dog)
Pittsburgh +106
Cincinnati +136
Florida +210
San Diego +114
Colorado +146
(TB is a pass because there's no dog)
Toronto +109
Oakland +127 (ruining this category this week!)

KAZMIR CLUB
Figured I'd include this since he's pitching. This is any 3 starter backed up by a 1 bullpen...meaning you may want to use just the 5 inning line rather than the full game. Though, it should be noted that TB is 8-2 in Kazmir's starts this year. So...he's not getting hurt by TB's lousy bullpen yet. TB is 13-25 in games NOT started by Kazmir...meaning they're the same old team on the other nights.

Milwaukee (Capuano) +100 vs. Philly
San Francisco (Schmidt) -154 vs. Colorado
TB (Kazmir) -102 vs. Boston

Brewers are 6-4 in Capuano's starts despite his 2.78 ERA for the year. Giants are 5-4 in Schmidt's starts despite his 3.07 ERA for the year.
So...if you were liking those guys to begin with, you might consider 5 run lines to take the "1" bullpens out of the mix.

Best of luck to all. Please continue to share your thoughts about this overall approach, or anything related that you may have noticed the past few days. Are you tweaking your own slate nightly based on some of these tendencies? Are you incorporating bullpens more into your decision-making? Have you tried laying 1.5 runs with some of your teams in good scoring conditions figuring that one-run decisions are less likely?

Did you think it was cool that Meat Loaf appeared on American Idol the other night? Did any of you have the Al Jereau, Meat Loaf, Dionne Warwick trifecta? Is the only thing worse than seeing David Hasselhoff...seeing David Hasselhoff cry? Was he crying at Clay Aiken's new haircut? If not, why not?

All sorts of topics we could discuss, lol...

[Superfly]

BG- I haven't been around for a couple of weeks, so I was absolutely startled to read this thread. What youare doing is remarkably similiar to what I do to handicap baseball.

Using that statement as a starting point, let me point out a couple of things. Using ratings for offenses, starters and bullpens is a solid beginning. The problem is you don't know how much weight ot give a BP because you don't know if they'll throw 3 innings, or 1/3 inning. I also don't see where you are accounting for the strength of the offense.

To get around that problem, I found I needed a way to "normalize" the stats between starters and relievers. I did this by using baserunners as the common link. Therefore, if you can convert the expected baserunners allowed by the starter and bullpen per inning, or per 9 innings, into an expected runs per baserunner, then figure out a way to estimate the length of the starter, you can translate all of that data into an expected final score. You also need offensive stats to seperate the good offensive teams from the dregs. You then can measure that against the line and total to mathematically come up with plays. There may be another common measurement other than baserunners which you can find is accurate.

I've taken it that far on my own since starting with the "ratings". I think you'll find that average baserunners bears a pretty solid correlation to score over time. So if you have offensive, pitcher and BP ratings, you're on your way.

I hesitate to post any more of my system here, but will bwe happy to continue this as a theoretical discussion if anyone sees the value in doing so.

[blogguy]

Good to hear from you Superfly!

Glad you're back in touch. Hopefully you were doing well in poker tournaments...or yelling in person at the Pittsburgh Pirates for taking so long to get things rolling this year. They need a kick!

On the offensive end...I'm just rating teams from 1-3 points based mostly on their road medians in the scoreline threads we were using earlier this season (haven't updated them in a week or so...but the lines are solid...I'll come up with a fresher rundown that's based on recent form in the coming days). In a few cases, I'll use different numbers for home games and road games.

Cincinnati is a 1.5 on the road, but a 3 at home
Arizona is a 1.5 or a 2 on the road, but a 2.5 or a 3 at home
Minnesota is a 1 on the road but a 2.5 or something at home

I've given myself room to fudge if I think there's something unique about the offense.

I can't argue against baserunners. I just like using a combination of consistentency and volume for basic scoring. I think using the scorelines did that for me very well.

Regarding the bullpen issue...Spraguer has brought up similar points, as has at least one other poster. Can't remember everyone who's brought it up as I type this. Anyone can certainly tweak the approach to fit the probabilities for a certain game. Personally...I think some of the bad bullpens are going to be okay if the starter goes into the 8th inning...and some of the good ones are going to get blasted if the starter only goes 5 innings (say, the Yankees). So..any attempt to use the "ultimate" system would be much more complicated than the methodology here.

That being said...the fact that bullpens are forced into the mix can't be a bad thing. I think a lot of handicappers were underestimating the impact bullpens were having on sides and totals this year. This framework forces people to look at the bullpen in every game, and helps shed light on why certain things have gone the way they have this year.

Glad to hear what we're doing is in the neighborhood of your daily approach. For now...I'm going to keep it simple just to see where simple leads. If simple gets you most of the way to success...but tweaking leads to additional success...then what we've got here can be a starting point for everyone. Casual players can do the basics and put themselves in position to have a chance. More serious players can build on the framework to their heart's content.

In general I'm happy with what's been going on so far...particularly in terms of the 1.5 run situation in hitter's parks. That's got potential to offer a real opening if it's handled properly.

Once again...welcome back to the TANK!