Thursday Gradings

[blogguy]

This all had to go up after the fact because of schedule contraints on my end and the fact that the site was down much of the afternoon. You guys all have the methodology...and it was the same old suspects in some of the games anyway.

I did go through to get the prices on fave's and dogs within the main record blocks so I can keep those updated daily from this point on. Will give us a sense of whether the coin flip dog stuff is worth the energy, among other othings.


Records Coming into Thursday:

*System: 8-5...plus 1.07 units after subtracting out favorite losses
*Totals: 5-1
*Big Favorites: 5-0
*Coin Flip Dogs: 11-13...virtual dead heat with paybacks...we'll call it net even.
*1.5 Run Gradings: 8-4...plus 5.24 units thanks to paybacks
*Offense and Over Tandems: 13-8-1 (didn't do math on this one)


THURSDAY'S GRADINGS

SYSTEM PLAYS (8-5...plus 1.07 units)
Washington +110 vs. Houston (rare dog grading thanks to Pettite's struggles, and Houston's poor bullpen)
Seattle -150 vs. Baltimore
(we know now that goes 1-1....so it's 9-6 for plus 0.57 units)

TOTALS (5-1...plus 4.00 units)
Detroit/KC Under (we might have culled it because that's a great scoring park in day games...but not allowing myself that luxury after knowing it's already a loser!)(now 5-2, plus 3.0 units)

BIG FAVORITES (5-0 plus 5.00 units)
Detroit -230 vs. Kansas City
Boston -320 vs. Tampa Bay

COIN FLIP DOGS (11-13...even)
NY Mets +140 vs. Philly
Oakland +160 vs. Texas

1.5 RUN GRADINGS (8-4...plus 5.24 units)
Detroit -whatever it was vs. KC
Boston -130 vs. Tampa Bay

I'll update the rest once the night games go final...

Oh....offense and Over tandems were Seattle and Over vs. Baltimore...but the Mariners couldn't score on Lopez for some reason. Boston and Over was an evening grading there vs. Waechter. This particular approach always ends up breaking my heart...so I'm kind of half paying attention to it. Probably best in hitter's parks rather than in places like Seattle anyway.

[blogguy]

UDPATED RECORDS THROUGH THURSDAY

SYSTEM PLAYS
9-6 for plus 0.57 units

TOTALS
5-2, plus 3.00 units

BIG FAVORITES
7-0 plus 7.00 units
(at the prices we've got to lay this is actually just 2-3 games over .500 though, don't get carried away...)

COIN FLIP DOGS
11-15, minus 2.00 units (the A's are supposed to have a good bullpen, but they're costing us big time this week in this category...probably one of those where SOMEBODY will always be costing you by not living up to expectations)

1.5 RUN GRADINGS (only used in hitter's parks)
10-4 plus 7.24 units

In a nutshell...the superior teams are all winning consistently vs. the dregs of the leauge, and the teams that grade in the good scoring parks have shown so far that there's value at those 1.5 run lines because nailbiters are so uncommon when superiority has been shown in the math. This isn't really something where you can "add up" all the different categories for a bulk record. Many of the same teams are showing up in a couple different places (many in the first two groups also qualify for the 1.5 run games)