Hey Stathead(blogguy)

[ronbets]

In the modern NBA era(1990 to present), the team that wins game one of Best of 7 Conference Finals wins the Series 29 outta 32 times. Spotting a team 25% doesn't equate this high. Anomaly or other?

[Chilly]

I would rather know how many times this happens when the road team wins game 1. I assume the home team normally wins game one, they have home court adv., and are already now up 1-0. No surprises. But if the rd team wins game 1, how many of them go on to win? that's they key....

[blogguy]

My nominees for "other"

We've had some dominant teams during that period...and a few three-peats where the same team was dominant because they knew how to play playoff style basketball. Those teams:

*Were typically at home in the opener (worth 3-4 points right there)
*Were typically rested because proper bracketing had them wrapping up their series at least a game earlier than their opponent did
*Were typically teams with stars who got respect from the refs

Combine that with the fact that seven games typically sends the right team through...while March Madness is just a glorified coin flipping contest...and you've got a situation here that very strongly favors the superior team in general.

Now...some of those were probably road wins rather than home wins. Don't have a listing. We'd have to take those case by case.

Does that 29-3 trend mean Phoenix and Miami are virtual locks now? To me, apples and oranges. Sure, it's great to start off 1-0...but I don't see those teams fitting necessarily into the right kind of categories.

*Both are capable of losing at home and giving the edge right back. Phoenix lost once each at home to the Lakers and Clippers. Miami lost at home to New Jersey before righting their ship.

*Phoenix isn't rested (Miami is)

*Phoenis isn't likely to get favorable calls to the degree that many of the league powers of the past did. They did make it to the line more than Dallas in game one, which is out of character with what happened in the Suns/Clippers series. Miami might...but Shaq is getting called for charges a lot with that booty move of his.

In favor of the Suns and Heat continuing the trend:
*The coaches of Detroit and Dallas don't have playoff experience at this level. In fact Saunders has supplied volumes of evidence that he DOESN'T know how to get the most out of his teams in the playoffs.

*Both Detroit and Dallas had to go seven games in the last round. The fatigue that's usually an edge for the series favorite was a vote against them here. Even though both Phoenix and Dallas played seven games coming in...Dallas had to do that against a league powerhouse, while the Suns had to do it against a #6 seed.

*There's no "network pressure" to get Detroit and Dallas into the finals the way there was to get the Bulls and Lakers into the finals in past years. A Miami/Phoenix series would be just as appealing, particularly with the MVP angle of Nash and Shaq.

My sense of it now...

60% Miami wins because Saunders has no idea how to win on purpose unless his team hits 10-15 treys...or the other team shoots 30%.
30% Detroit wins because they're able to bring a more intense defensive effort and they take their share of the coin flip endings
10% randomness factor because I can't justify lifting Miami to 70 or Detroit to 40 lol...

60% Dallas settles in and makes some defensive adjustments that prevent Phoenix from making 50 backdoor layups a game.
40% Dallas doesn't, allowing Phoenix to pull the upset

GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU IN THE TANK RONBETS!

[ronbets]

Thanks for the in-depth analysis Blog.

[Juice]

You would make a real time killing on the exchanges BG. Big time.