Wednesday Gradings

[blogguy]

Got a chance late afternoon to at least figure out what the gradings would have been. Not going to be time to run through all the details. We'll just do it by category. Some games are over already.

SYSTEM PLAYS (6-2 Monday and Tuesday)
Arizona -128 vs. Pittsburgh
Cincinnati -126 vs. Milwaukee
Toronto -161 vs. Tampa Bay
Texas -145 vs. LA Angels (already a loser)
Seattle -128 vs. Baltimore

SYSTEM TOTALS: (3-0 Monday and Tuesday)
Houston/Washington Under 7.5 +103
Atlanta/San Diego Under 7.5 +106
LA Angels/Texas Over 11 (already a winner, this was from the qualifier posted two days ago about offenses adding up to 4 or more vs. two pitching combos that are both at 3.5 or less. No qualifiers this week until today, didn't even post the category yesterday to save time)

BIG FAVE'S: (4-0 Monday and Tuesday)
Detroit -232 vs. Kansas City

COINFLIP DOGS: (6-9 again dissuading me that there's EVER any real value taking MLB dogs! I know some of you can do it. Dogs I love lose by 1 run...the rest is just a randomness headache!)

Florida +110 vs. Chicago (already a winner)
San Francisco +105 vs. St. Louis
Washington +149 vs. Houston
NY Mets +109 vs. Philly
Atlanta +110 vs. San Diego
Colorado +121 vs. Los Angeles
Minnesota +150 vs. Cleveland (already a loser)
NYY +120 vs. Boston
Oakland +133 vs. CWS

1.5 RUN GRADINGS: (7-1 Monday and Tuesday)
Arizona -1.5 +165
Cincinnati -1.5 +156
Toronto -1.5 +124
Detroit -1.5 -140
Remember...these are only games from the list of system plays and big favorites that are being played in hitter's parks. It might be interesting to see if it's better when you're concerned about a team getting a sweep to just take the 1.5 line so your vigorish is SMALLER if they lose. If you're afraid the Reds won't get the sweep...do you want to lay -126 on the win, or rish 1 to win 1.56 that if they do win it's a big one? If you don't trust Arizona to get a sweep....do you want to lay 128 straight up, or risk 1 to win 1.65 if that it will be a big win? Always ways to tinker!

I wanted to add in the Team and Over tandems because those have been doing very well even though we weren't including them as part of the rundown at the end. We had four qualifiers each night...they went 6-2 the first night, and 5-2-1 the second night for an 11-4-1 total.

Those are the games where you get an offense of 2.5 or better vs. a 4 pitching combo or worse...or 2.0 vs. 3.5 or worse...something like that anyway. Don't have them memorized yet!

OFFENSE AND OVER TANDEMS (11-4-1 Monday and Tuesday)
Cincinnati and the Over vs. Davis
Toronto and the Over vs. Fossum
Texas and the Over vs. Weaver (already a split)

One reason I didn't include this is that we typically saw duplication with the other stuff. Basically, we're getting an explanation here that the reason those three teams sides graded out in the first place is that their offenses matched up so well against the opposing pitching. Some of you may choose to play those in tandems if you've got other reasons to like high scoring possibilities based on the ballpark, weather, or umpires. All three of these happened to be in good scoring parks. I haven't even had a chance to look at umpires this week.

In a nutshell we're getting many of the same teams over and over again because the advantages in offense and bullpen don't change much from day to day. We may find out it's tempting fate to ask for sweeps with teams that show these advantages...or we may find out that worrying about sweeps is a waste of time when real advantages are in place. Tonight will be interesting.

Good luck to all on your Wednesday night decisions...

[blogguy]

Updated Records:

System: 8-5...close to break even with prices on fave's
Totals: 5-1
Big Favorites: 5-0
Coin Flip Dogs: 11-13...which is close to even or maybe a slight profit. Haven't had time to check.
1.5 Run Gradings: 8-4 at mostly underdog prices (Az blows 8-3 lead with highly regarded bullpen!)
Offense and Over Tandems: (13-8-1)

One thing to consider down the road is that clear edges on offense and bullpen might be signalling a win in the series rather than a day-by-day sweep. That could mean it's better to go for two wins then pass if you win the first two (Cincy, Toronto don't sweep). But...Arizona and Detroit did. That's a split with favorites...so more study could find some conservatism is advised after a 2-0 start in a series. We'll see. On this day, Cincy and Toronto took a bite out of three different categories. But, their wins showed up in a bunch as well.

Probably best to pick the category or two that bets suits your needs and focus on that. I nobody's thinking of playing 16 things a night anyway...lol