WNBA TEMPO LINES

[blogguy]

I was thinking it would be fun to monitor tempo's out of the gate in the WNBA this year because it's a manageable schedule...and it's a way of introducing everyone to the influences that tempo can have (or not have) on a game-by-game basis on totals...and on certain matchups.

It's a big task in the NBA...and a monster in college hoops. In this league, with this schedule...it's manageable to absorb and digest the data.

I really liked how the baseball run-lines showed off the likely ranges of expectations for offenses...so I decided to use the same format for each WNBA team with tempo's. We'll just list them from low to high...then see what happens when extremes play. We already saw one extreme lead to an Under when too slow teams (Indiana and SA) play the other night.

Over time, I'm hoping we'll see:
*How the faster games blow up when two up tempo teams play
*How the slower games blow down when two slow teams play
*How certain teams play to their opponents in ways that Vegas doesn't always see. There are always certain NBA teams who play up-tempo when they face running teams...but don't mind slowing down against a slow team. Vegas tends to undercut the probabilites in each direction. If we find just ONE team like that in the WNBA, it will be worth the effort.

Here are the admittedly short tempo lines through Tuesday's action. Most teams have played two games, some have played just one:

Connecticut: 74-86
Indiana: 71-74
Washington: 79
Chicago: 71-86 (early sign of a team that may play to opponent's tempo)
Detroit: 74-75
Charlotte: 82-88
New York: 79-86

Sacramento: 71-94 (opened with wild Phoenix)
Houston: 73-77
Los Angeles: 82-87
San Antonio: 71-77
Seattle: 73-82
Minnesota: 74-75
Phoenix: 94 (!!)

Early labels:
LIGHTNING: Phoenix
FAST: Charlotte, New York, Los Angeles
SLOW: Indiana, Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, Minnesota
PLAYED TO OPPONENTS IN 2 GAMES: Connecticut, Chicago, Sacramento, Seattle
TOO EARLY: Washington

I'm also playing around with synergy on the side. That stuff gets jumbled easily...so I'm waiting until I have something coherent to show. I can tell you this so far:

Connecticut is great at passing the ball around
Washington might be but their only game came against horrible New York
New York's defense is ungodly horrible so far
Sacramento is great at passing the ball around
Houston is great at passing the ball around
LA looks like it's pretty good at it
Indiana and Detroit have strong defenses, and look like they play the Dallas Mavs offensive style of finding matchups rather than passing. Too early to say because both have shot poorly.

I think New York is going to be in huge trouble against teams who pass the ball around well based on their early games. We'll see if that holds up. Just not enough games yet to have any confidence in the numbers.

[blogguy]

Updated through games of Thursday night 5/25

Connecticut: 74-86
Indiana: 71-74
Washington: 79-82
Chicago: 71-86
Detroit: 74-75
Charlotte: 82-82-88
New York: 79-86

Sacramento: 71-75-94
Houston: 73-75-77
Los Angeles: 80-82-87
San Antonio: 71-77-80
Seattle: 73-82-83
Minnesota: 74-75
Phoenix: 83-94

Early labels:
LIGHTNING: Phoenix
FAST: Charlotte, New York, Los Angeles
SLOW: Indiana, Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, Minnesota
PLAYED TO OPPONENTS tEMPO: Connecticut, Chicago, Sacramento, Seattle
TOO EARLY: Washington

In Thursday night's games:
Washington/Charlotte played to an 82...more evidence that Charlotte is up-tempo (they played very fast with Chicago, who slowed down after that)

Los Angeles/San antonio played to an 80...which was a case of two ends of the spectrum meeting in the middle

Seattle/Phoenix played to an 83. That's slower than what Phoenix did in their first game...but still shows you how fast the Westhead style is going to be on typical nights. Took a flyer on the trifecta there...(1Q, 1H, Game) with the total. Against totals of 41, 81, and 167...reality landed on 46, 96, and 175. It's funny...the full game opened at 160 and got bet all the way up to 167. So...the "sharps" were aware of the Westhead influence. It took a slow 32-point fourth quarter to "calm down" to just 175 for the game. It was a 192 pace at the half. Keep looking at this for Phoenix. And, look for it to wear out their own defense. Seattle shot lights out against them here...as Sacramento did earlier.

Houston/Sacramento played to a 75. Houston is slow...and Sacramento looks like they play to the opponent thus far.

Note...Sacramento had a great ATS record last year, which must mean that they bounced back well after losses. They didn't really lose that often last year anyway. But, I'm guessing there's a championship mindset there that will encourage very strong bounce backs after bad outings. We saw Houston do that after their poor opener with two great road games.

Stuff we were doing back in the NBA:
*Taking "bounce back" teams on the trifecta assuming the emotions will be present out of the gate.

*Take Overs based on tempo on the trifecta because sometimes the fourth quarters die in games like that. The percentage always seems to be higher at the first half numbers than the full-game numbers when tempo is your key indicator.

Stuff to think about as we progess through the early days of the season under Yzerman's guidance...

[Yzerman#19]

"Stuff to think about as we progess through the early days of the season under Yzerman's guidance..."

lol I hope I dont lead you off the pier into the river [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

some really good info here blogguy, I'm really interested to see the #'s on Seattle as IMO they're a team that can get frustrated against a hard nose defense team like they were against Houston but when they get to run and gun like they were against phoenix, they're probably the fastest team in the league.

going to do the recap from last night now.

[blogguy]

Updated through games of Saturday 5/27

Connecticut: 74-80-86
Indiana: 71-74-75
Washington: 79-82-82
Chicago: 71-75-86
Detroit: 74-75-80
Charlotte: 82-82-88
New York: 79-86

Sacramento: 71-75-94
Houston: 73-75-77
Los Angeles: 80-82-87
San Antonio: 71-77-80
Seattle: 73-82-83
Minnesota: 74-75-82
Phoenix: 83-94

Friday night, Indiana/Chicago played to a 75...so Chicago's early fast game vs. Charlotte was clearly a false read. Charlotte runs...Chicago couldn't stop them. Chicago's typically slow. Indiana's always slow.

Saturday: Detroit/Connecticut played to an 80 (pro-rated to regulation), meaning Connecticut controlled the tempo even though Detroit was able to win on the road in a game that was faster than normal for them. Minnesota/Washington played to an 82...as the home team forced a faster tempo on the visitor in a one-sided victory.

[blogguy]

Updated through games of Tuesday 5/30

Connecticut: 74-80-86
Indiana: 71-72-74-75 (consistently slow)
Washington: 79-82-82 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-86 (slow outside of Charlotte)
Detroit: 74-75-80 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 82-82-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 72-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77 (consistently slow)
Los Angeles: 75-80-82-87 (probably fast)
San Antonio: 71-77-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-82-83 (mostly fast)
Minnesota: 74-75-82
Phoenix: 83-94 (lightining in a bottle)

Phoenix plays San Antonio Wednesday night. It's not ideal for an Over play because SA doesn't look like a team that will run with people. It will be interesting to see where a Phoenix game like that ends up. We can use it as a guideline for when they play teams like Indiana, Detroit, Chicago, Houston, and Minnesota. The good things about group dynamics is that they have fairly good predictive value in basketball.

For now...these groups seem to be shaping up:

FAST
Phoenix
Washington
Charlotte
Seattle
Los Angeles (?)(not so fast vs. Chicago)

SLOW
Indiana
Detroit
Chicago
San Antonio
Minnesota
Sacramento

After a few more games...we should have confirmation of where teams stand. Maybe I can put together some totals lines based on the groups. We can see quickly what each team does against each group...and can do some quick additions for the groups as a whole. I always think the best way to attack totals is on the extremes...this should help us do that down the road...

[Yzerman#19]

Blogguy, I think we'll see that LA is a team that likes to push it but can be trapped into playing into their opponents tempo- the other thing is their 2nd leading scorer holdsclaw is still out, when she returns I think LA will end up in the fast category.

I think Minnesota really wants to run up and down but they don't have the talent, wouldn't be surprised to see them gradually claim up into 'fast'

[dinque]

the lynx scored 114 tonite.is that possible?

[blogguy]

If you shoot 15 of 22 on three-pointers...anything is possible!

Interestingly, the tempo of that game was only 80. Even with 185 points...it wasn't like Phoenix in a playground scrimmage. Minnesota just nailed a zillion three's. On the same night, Indiana and Houston combed to go 2 of 25 on three-pointers in their game. That Indiana/Houston game also saw 42 combined turnovers. Must have been a beauty to behold..

Wednesday night tempo's:
LA/Minnesota: 80
Indiana/Houston: 82, very fast for these teams, but much of that was all the turnovers. When two teams are giving the ball away a lot, that inflates the number of possessions even if it's not a particularly fast-paced game. Still, I would have guessed mid 70'sat the highest.
San Antonio/Phoenix: 79...meeting kind of halfway
Seattle/Sacrament: 74...did ITP really say Sacramento wasn't very good? Defending champs start 3-1 straight up and ATS. He hit his other two games though in that MESS HALL thread...

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Wednesday 5/31

Connecticut: 74-80-86
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-82 (slow)
Washington: 79-82-82 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-86 (slow outside of Charlotte)
Detroit: 74-75-80 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 82-82-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 72-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77-82 (slow)
Los Angeles: 75-80-80-82-87 (fast)
San Antonio: 71-77-79-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-74-82-83 (matching opponent?)
Minnesota: 74-75-80-82 (Yzer says they'll be fast)
Phoenix: 79-83-94 (falling back to earth a bit)

Updated Groupings
FAST
Phoenix
Washington
Charlotte
Seattle (now a ? to me)
Los Angeles
Minnesota

SLOW
Indiana
Detroit
Chicago
Houston
San Antonio
Sacramento

Tonight's games:
Connecticut/Charlotte: (neutral/fast)
New York/Detroit (neutral/slow)

Connecticut has played an 80 and an 82 so far...does that mean they'll run with up-tempo Charlotte? Total opened 149 but has steamed down to 146. That's probably because Charlotte just played to a 136 vs. Washington, and a 137 vs. Los Angeles. Those guys are in the fast category. Charlotte ran with them...but shot something like 21 of 60 in both games (give or take a shot). Fast tempo's don't lead to Overs if nobody can make a shot!

Detroit/NY opened 151 and dropped to 149. If New York is playing to opponent's pace...and Detroit is slow...might still be too high a number. But NY played to a 161 with Indiana the other day against a total of 137.5. New York's defense is so bad that opponents may be tempted to run up the score and throw a party. You don't want Unders then.

Conflicting indicators to me on the Thursday night totals...

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Thurday 6/1

Connecticut: 74-80-83-86 (mostly fast)
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-82 (slow)
Washington: 79-82-82 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-86 (slow outside of Charlotte)
Detroit: 68-74-75-80 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 82-82-83-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 68-72-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77-82 (slow)
Los Angeles: 75-80-80-82-87 (fast)
San Antonio: 71-77-79-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-74-82-83 (matching opponent?)
Minnesota: 74-75-80-82 (Yzer says they'll be fast)
Phoenix: 79-83-94 (falling back to earth a bit)

Thursday night:
Connecticut/Charlotte played a fast game that stumped the steamers. Detroit/NY played the slowest game of the season at 68. Must have been Detroit getting some offensive rebounds and running clock in a close game. Thank goodness I didn't see the halftime score...because the mortgage would have been on Detroit to bounce back from a horrible first half vs. this awful NY team. Didn't happen. Well...it would have taken hours to find which drawer the mortgage is in....but you know what I mean...

Remember that Yzer's time to post is being cut into by having to grade 80 pick of the day entrants in dinque's race to 20 units. THANKS DINQUE! THANKS A LOT! WE FINALLY GET A GUY WHO WANTS TO POST OFTEN IN THE TANK...AND HE'S GOT TO FIGURE OUT WHO'S IN 47TH PLACE EACH DAY IN A THREE-MONTH CONTEST.

It is probably helping traffic to the site though...can't argue with that...

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Friday 6/2

Connecticut: 74-80-83-86 (mostly fast)
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-78-82 (slow)
Washington: 79-82-82 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-80-86 (slow outside of Charlotte)
Detroit: 68-74-75-80 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 82-82-83-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 68-72-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77-80-82 (slow)
Los Angeles: 75-80-80-82-87 (fast)
San Antonio: 71-75-77-79-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-74-80-82-83 (matching opponent?)
Minnesota: 74-75-78-80-82 (Yzer says they'll be fast)
Phoenix: 79-80-83-94 (falling back to earth a bit)

Friday Night...
Indiana/Minnesota played to a 78. Since we know Indiana is slow, this is confirming Yzer's comments about Minnesota preferring to push the ball. The game went Over by 35 points...which is the second straight game that saw Minny go way Over. They're doing a great job on treys...and, while not running-and-gunning like Phoenix necessarily, they are making the most of their up tempo strengths. Rookie Simone Augustus seems to be thriving. She was the girl from LSU that ESPN always showcased before some other team ended winning the NCAA's every year.

Chicago/Houston played to an 80...giving us another Houston game that graded out much faster in tempo than expected even though it stayed Under. Again turnovers were an issue. Houston's defense has been strong since the opening loss to SA...and that's helping the Unders as well. It will take more time to see if this tempo surge is only a case of early turnovers creating an illusion...or if they're really going to be a faster paced team that plays Unders (San Antonio can be like that sometimes in the NBA).

Phoenix/Seattle played to an 80...so Phoenix is still running, even if it's at a slightly slower pace. Seattle is still playing to their opponents tempo too. Hope that combination encouraged some of you to consider the Over here. Vegas posted a 170...about what they had when Phoenix played San Antonio. But...Seattle was more likely to go along with a fast tempo...and to exploit the horrible Phoenix defense. Game ended 97-87...which is an over by 14 points. It could turn out that 175-180 is going to be a better number when Phoenix plays against running teams, or teams who match their opponent's tempo's.

San Antonio/Sacramento played to a 75. SA won again on the road, though they've been struggling at home. Sacramento's coach is dealing with the pending death of his mother...which was sited as a distraction in the game write-up. Something to keep an eye on...this was way below past standards for Sacramento (11-point favorite). This is a team that normallly bounces back well from a loss.

Note that we've finally had some underdogs cover games that they didn't win. Jackyl noticed that it took a long time to happen. Many of the lines had really gotten up there. Three of the four Friday night games had double digit lines (14, 11, and 11). Chicago and Phoenix both covered as dogs...as NY did in Detroit the night before.

It's very odd to see this many have's and have not's in a small league that's had some time to get settled. Parity has had time to happen...and the exact opposite is happening. Tells you that some coaches are doing a really good job of emphasizing the right things...and some are proving that their in over their heads at this level. Something to pay attention to.

Rememmber that in times of tall spreads, you need real tangible evidence that the favorite is going to have a chip on their shoulders that night. If you can't make that case, the value is typically with the dogs. And, if you CAN make that case, the value is typically in the first half line at half the spread rather than the full game double digit spread.

That's how it works in the NBA anyway. Maybe we can come up with a "chip on the shoulder" metric in the WNBA since it's likely these tall spreads are going to be around for awhile...

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Saturday 6/3

Connecticut: 74-80-81-83-86 (mostly fast)
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-78-82 (slow)
Washington: 79-82-82-84 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-80-86 (slow outside of Charlotte)
Detroit: 68-74-75-80-84 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 81-82-82-83-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 68-72-79-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77-80-82 (slow)
Los Angeles: 75-79-80-80-82-87 (fast)
San Antonio: 71-75-77-79-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-74-80-82-83 (matching opponent?)
Minnesota: 74-75-78-80-82 (Yzer says they'll be fast)
Phoenix: 79-80-83-94 (falling back to earth a bit)

Saturday:
Los Angeles/New York played to an estimated 79 in regulation. Yzer commented on this one some up in the MESS HALL. Coach Jellybean Bryant seems to be in a bit over his head. I was thinking that while watching, then others mentioned it in that post. He did look like he wanted to force the ball inside where New York is weak. As Yzer mentioned, they're even weaker in transition...so this wasn't a great option. It was kind of amazing....LA won shooting percentage 45% to 33%, and rebounds 53-31...BUT LOST THE GAME! That should be impossible to do. It happened because New York won treys 9-1 (27-3 in points), and because LA committed 19 turnovers as they constantly tried to force the ball into traffic to take advantage of their size. You really have to wonder about a team that gets annihilated one night....then instead of breathing fire out of the gate in the next game falls behind for most of the first half against an awful team. Brings back memories for me in past handicapping of this league. You just can't get anyone to do anything on purpose, even when it's very logical that they should do so. The shots fall or they don't. Totals and tempo's seem to have more inherent logic results-wise to me.

Oh...a reader in the MESS HALL mentioned that one reason New York gets annihilated when they lose is because they go to a full-court press when way behind. It tends to blow up in their face and make things worse. So...this may be a team that isn't as bad as they first seemed. They'll lose by 1-5....or by 15-20...but rarelly by 6-14 if you know what I mean. Take them as a dog if they can compete...go the other way against up-tempo teams that will have the ability to run up the score. We thought LA would be able to do that...the coach made certain they wouldn't!

Detroit/Washington played to an 84. That's very high for Detroit, particularly in the first game of a back-to-back. My guess is that they tanked when they fell behind to save themselves for today...and Washington ran like crazy against the Detroit bench. Maybe someone who saw the game can confirm that.

Charlotte/Connecticut played to an 81...which is with the realm of expectations for those two teams. The game went Over by 10 points. We're still seeing "fast vs. fast" go Over a good percentage of the time. It's not consistently a "trifecta" thing though. Sometimes it's a wild fourth quarter that takes things Over. Tempo in the WNBA may mean that the players will be running the whole way...but when exactly the shots start falling is a bit random. NBA tempo games start out WAY over than slow down. WNBA tempo games are having an even distribution...some start fast...some end fast.

Learning as we go...good to see tempo in general leading to good indicators out of the gate anyway....

[colorado]

Blog, How do you calculate tempo? Interesting post, but need to know how to use it.

[blogguy]

Thanks for the question Colorado...

Tempo is simply an estimate of the number of possessions per team per game. The faster the tempo, the more times each team has the ball. The lower the tempo, the fewer times.

The standard formula for it now is Field Goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus .44 times the number of Free Throw attempts (those are the things that end possessions).

Before that formula became standard for statheads...I was using these two and just averaged them together (I still do it my way)

*Standard formula except I use one half the number of FT attempts because it's easier to do that in my head

*Made Field Goals plus Defensive Rebounds plus turnovers plus one half the number of FT attempts.

It would be great if boxscores would just list the number of possessions per team. They don't...so we've got to estimate them. Some stathead websites have more on this kind of stuff

82games.com for the NBA
kenpom.com for college hoops

A guy named John Hollinger is the main NBA stathead. He currently writes for ESPN.com and authors a book called Pro Basketball Forecast I highly recommend.

We've seen in the NBA playoffs that following the tempo can give you a sense of where the point totals will end up. Detroit and Miami was a slow series...and all the games went Under. Dallas/Phoenix was much slower than people realized after the opener...and the only game after the opener that went Over was the one with about 20 made three-pointers (Game Five).

Totals are influenced by all of the following:
*Tempo
*Shooting percentage
*Three-Point production
*Free Throws (how the refs call the game)

That's a lot of variables to deal with...which is why there's never a sure thing with a total. Gaining a sense of the likely tempo at least puts you in the right ballpark. This can have value for handicappers in situations where the oddsmakers and public really aren't factoring that into the mix. I think that was clear in the conference championships...but it doesn't always work out that well.

Please let us know if you see any applications you'd like us to pursue. We're learning as we go in the WNBA regarding what's predictable, and what the tempo's mean for each team...

Thanks again for you interest!

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Sunday 6/4 (no games Monday 6/5)

Connecticut: 74-80-81-83-86 (mostly fast)
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-78-82 (slow)
Washington: 79-82-82-84 (consistently fast)
Chicago: 71-75-75-75-80-86 (slow)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84 (mostly slow)
Charlotte: 81-82-82-83-88 (consistently fast)
New York: 68-72-79-79-86 (at the mercy of opponent)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-75-94 (mostly slow)
Houston: 73-75-77-78-80-82 (slow)
Los Angeles: 75-79-80-80-82-87 (fast)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-77-79-80 (mostly slow)
Seattle: 73-74-74-80-82-83 (matching opponent?)
Minnesota: 74-75-78-78-80-82 (Yzer says they'll be fast)
Phoenix: 79-80-83-94 (falling back to earth a bit)

We've played enough games now that you can basically go to the median (the middle of each line) to see what the "typical" game is for each team. If their opponent is faster...move a few further to the right...if their opponent is slower...move a few to the left. That's a way to ballpark tempo for a particular game anyway.

Sunday:
Minnesota/Houston played to a 78. There were fewer turnovers here than in the last few Houston games...which knocked a few off the number. Note that Minnesota was just 2 of 11 on treys here...after shooting them great at home. Something to watch for with that team...possibly a home/road split that's triggered by long range shooting. They got killed h ere 85-62.

Detroit/Chicago played to a 75. This is consistent with the theory that Detroit went in the tank the prior day and the scrubs drove up the tempo in the loss to Washington. Things slowed down a lot when it was time to win a road game.

San Antonio/Seattle played to a 74. This is shockingly slow for a game that ended 89-87. What happened? Three-pointers. The teams were a combined 16 of 34 from long range. It's like that fifth game in Dallas/Phoenix that flew Over in a slow game. This stuff happens sometimes.

Three-point shooting fickleness:
Minnesota/Houston: 7 of 24 (29%)
Detroit/Chicago: 14 of 27 (52%)
San Antonio/Seattle: 16 of 34 (47%)

Remember that treys are worth 1.5 field goals...so you've got to multiply those by 1.5 to get a true sense of their impact. That would be in the area of 75% for the latter two on the list.

Three-point shooting is one of those stats that's "most likely to disappear" from one game to the next. A great game will be followed by average or worse...a horrible game will be followed by average or better. It's one of the monkey wrenches in basketball handicapping that prevents "lock" selections.

Updating the groups:
FAST
Connecticut
Washington
Charlotte
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Minnesota

SLOW
Indiana
Detroit
Chicago
Houston
San Antonio
Sacramento

PLAYS TO OPPONENT
New York
Seattle

That's an educated guess anyway based on what we've seen so far. Houston's had some games that aren't slow...but "felt" slow anyway. There are always going to be outliers where things didn't fit the way you expected. In terms of percentages...the slow will be slow against each other, and the fast will be fast against each other.

Tuesday Night Schedule
Houston at Washington (Swoopes is listed as doubtful). This is a mix. With Houston cracking 80 a couple of times...we might see an 80 here. Tough to know how to deal with the absence of Swoopes.

Sacramento at Phoenix: These guys opened the season against each other, and the tempo was a riduclous 94. Sacramento has been slow otherwise. The total opened at 167 and moved to 170 soon afterward. Can't disagree with that move based on the first meeting. Sacramento bounced back well from losses last year, and is coming off a home loss to SA. They may still be dealing with the death of the head coach's mother though. You'd think Sac would be able to do what they wanted against this awful defense. That kind of thinking always gets me in trouble in this league!

On nights with bigger schedules, or without injury question marks, we'll try to do some tempo matchups. We'll see what each team has done totals wise against the group their playing that night if time permits. No good nominees tonight because the Swoopes injury and the Sac distractions raise question marks...

[Yzerman#19]

hey blogguy just posted in the mess hall that I'm actually on phoenix tonight, I think the coach situation for sacramento is a bigger distraction than they want to admit, Phoenix has played better recently- still horrid on the defensive end but they've adjusted to their offensive system better lately including cappie poindexter who scored 30 against Seattle, hope she can do the same tonight.

[blogguy]

Congrats on your pick Yzer...didn't get a chance to do the WNBA stuff until now. Watched some of that game. Sacramento sure didn't seem to be there mentally. Also noticed that Phoenix isn't quite running around like a bunch of lunatics as I had imagined. They ran some isolation plays for Cappie Poindexter...that slows things down a lot...and has a good chance of actually working! The tempo was just 79 for that game...compared to 94 in the first meeting. Will be interesting to monitor Phoenix...they might become a value team if they get smarter while the line still has them as helpless.

Tuesday and Wednesday Tempo's:
Houston/Washington: 72
Sacramento/Phoenix: 79
Connecticut/NY: 77
Washington/Indiana: 75 (again, a back to back team got trounced...would have won me a fortune a few years ago when they all kept inexplicably playing great time and time again)
Chicago/Seattle: 82
Detroit/LA: 84

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Wednesday 6/7

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-83-86 (80-81 midpoints)
Indiana: 71-72-74-75-75-78-82 (75 median)
Washington: 72-75-79-82-82-84 (79-82 midpoints)
Chicago: 71-75-75-75-80-82-86 (75 median)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84 (75 median)
Charlotte: 81-82-82-83-88 (82 median)
New York: 68-72-77-79-79-86 (77-79 midpoints)

Sacramento: 71-74-75-75-79-94 (75-75 midpoints)
Houston: 72-73-75-77-78-80-82 (77 median)
Los Angeles: 75-79-80-80-82-84-87 (80 median)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-77-79-80 (74-77 midpoints)
Seattle: 73-74-74-80-82-82-83 (80 median)
Minnesota: 74-75-78-78-80-82 (78-78 midpoints)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-83-94 (80 median)

Median/Midpoints 80 or above
Connecticut
Washington
Los Angeles
Seattle
Phoenix

Median/Midpoints 77 or below
Indiana
Chicago
Detroit
Sacramento
Houston
San Antonio

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Saturday 6/10

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-83-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 71-72-72-74-75-75-78-82 (74-75)
Washington: 72-75-79-82-82-84 (79-82)
Chicago: 71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-80)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-83-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (77-79)

Sacramento: 71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (75)
Houston: 72-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (77-78)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-84-87 (80-80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80 (75-77)
Seattle: 73-74-74-80-82-82-83-85 (80-82)
Minnesota: 74-75-78-78-78-80-82 (78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-83-85-94 (80-83)

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Sunday 6/11

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-81-83-85-86 (81-81)
Indiana: 71-72-72-72-74-75-75-78-82 (74)
Washington: 72-75-79-81-82-82-84 (81)
Chicago: 71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-80)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-83-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (77-79)

Sacramento: 71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (75)
Houston: 72-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (77)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-84-87 (80-80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80 (75-77)
Seattle: 72-73-74-74-80-82-82-83-85 (80)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-78-78-78-80-82 (78-78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-83-85-94 (80-83)

Midpoints of 80 and above:
Connecticut
Washington
Charlotte
Los Angeles
Seattle
Phoenix

Midpoints of 77 or below
Indiana
Chicago
Sacramento
Houston
San Antonio

[blogguy]

TEMPO LINES
Updated through games of Tuesday 6/13

First...Tuesday night's results showed the benefits of paying attention to tempo. We had two games where the "faster" teams were squaring off...and both went Over the totals (one by 3 points, the other by 12 points. We had a game with a slow team vs. one that had shaded their action towards slow if not being a pure qualifier. That one was Under in regulation by 9 points...but ended up going Over in overtime.

Charlotte/Washington: 86 possessions (very fast)
Phoenix/Los Angeles: 82 possessions (fast)
Indiana/New York: 71 possessions in regulation (turtle-like)

Charlotte/Washington played to 157 points against a 154 total...thanks largely to a HUGE fourth quarter. We're still not seeing "trifecta" possibilities with this...fast gradings just mean things are likely to explode at some point. In the NBA...they usually mean very fast first quarter...fast first half...game that can slow down if it's close late, or if the garbage time benches can't score. Different animal.

Phoenix/Los Angeles played to 182 points against a total of 170. We've seen some steam on the Overs here...and those plays have been winning. The sharps caught on to the Phoenix tempo thing very early on. The key is to avoid it against the slower teams. The totals haven't yet matched the scoring potential vs. faster teams.

Indiana/NY played to 130 in regulation against a total of 139. The game ended on 158 after two overtimes. By the way...more evidence here on the team side that New York can hang with certain kinds of teams. They either lose close (or win)...or they lose HUGE. Nothing in between. Indiana was an up tempo "run up the score" team in this road spot...and the New Yorker's covered the 5 point spread after regulation, after the first OT, and after the second OT.

Updated numbers now....


Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-81-83-85-86 (81-81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-78-82 (72-74)
Washington: 72-75-79-81-82-82-84-86 (81-82)
Chicago: 71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-80)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-83-86-88 (86)
New York: 68-71-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (77)

Sacramento: 71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (75)
Houston: 72-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (77)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80 (75-77)
Seattle: 72-73-74-74-80-82-82-83-85 (80)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-78-78-78-80-82 (78-78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-85-94 (82)

Midpoints of 80 and above:
Connecticut
Washington
Charlotte
Los Angeles
Seattle
Phoenix

Midpoints of 77 or below
Indiana
New York (just sneaks in after last game)
Chicago
Sacramento
Houston
San Antonio

Wednesday Night's games:
Seattle (80) at Minnesota (78)
Sacramento (75) at Houston (77)

Note that Minnesota is 3-0 at home, winning by scores of 114-71, 92-87, and 75-62. That's 3-0 ATS...and 2-1 to the Over. Seatle is 2-2 straight up and ATS on the road....and the totals are also 2-2. But..one of the Unders was by 1 point in a 153 game against a slow team (Sacramento)

Breaking it down by tempo:
Minnesota 185 vs. fast Los Angeles
Minnesota 179 vs. slow Indiana
Minnesota 137 vs. slow Houston
Seattle 175 vs. fast Phoenix
Seattle 153 vs. slow Sacramento
Seattle 166 vs. fast Connecticut
Seattle 131 vs. slow Indiana

Fast totals: 185, 175, 166...tonight's Vegas total in the Minnesota/Seattle game is 161

In the other game...Swoopes is still questionable last I heard. Here's what the teams did vs. other slow teams in same site samples:
Sacramento 139 vs. Chicago (Road)
Houston 142 vs. San Antonio (All Houston games home)
Houston 133 vs. Indiana
Houston 131 vs. Chicago
Houston 159 vs. New York

Tonight's total is 148. The listings above would be 1-4 to the Under against that hurdle. But...the first meeting between the two teams landed on 147 in a game played in Sacramento. That's close to the Vegas total here.

For me...leans to Minnesota and the Over vs. Seattle (Minnesota's going bonkers at home with Simone Augustus and an enthusiastic crowd). A light lean to the Under in Sacramento/Houston because I'll bend over backwards to take an Under with slow teams lol... The midpoints in the sample pool for both games are well away from the posted totals.

Be sure to check in on Yzer's BLOG for periodic updates on the leauge...