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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 06-14-2006, 09:32 PM
Yzerman#19 Yzerman#19 is offline
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thanks blog, I had an extremely busy weekend and haven't played anything since Sacramento let me down giving up a 10-1 run to end the game to Chicago on Saturday.. going to do a write-up/recap either tonight or tomorrow morning.

playing Seattle for 1 unit and Houston for 1/2 tonight- will bump it if Swoopes plays and I can get it before the line moves [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I think even though Minnesota is super hot and Seattle seems to be ice cold, Seattle is still the better team, I think Lauren Jackson should go out for about 25+ tonight as she should have her way inside- she has to bounce back from her 6 pt game against Indy.

If Swoopes was 100% healthy I would make Houston -7.5 on Sacramento, I really think Sacramento is in a lot of trouble their defense just isn't where it was last season and they really miss their leading scorer.. I think Houston can handle them tonight.

gl
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Old 06-15-2006, 09:23 PM
Yzerman#19 Yzerman#19 is offline
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hey blogguy, very interested to see the tempo #'s from the seattle/minny game from last night, Very strange game out of Seattle. They scored 74 and won on the road but Lauren Jackson {their best player} only took 8 shots scoring 8 points and she wasn't in any foul trouble. Not exactly sure what is going on with them and I'm not even thinking about touching their game tonight @ Chicago.
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Old 06-15-2006, 11:21 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Sorry for the delay...spent the day arguing soccer with a statistical hooligan...

Seattle/Minnesota played to a 76...which is much lower than I would have expected (and I guess you as well based on your query). I would have guessed 80 or so. But...pro-rated to a faster tempo wouldn't have reached the Vegas total. So...my guess there was off by a good bit.

Sacramento/Houston played to a 71 at the end of regulation. I didn't know last night when I saw the score that it was an OT game. Just marked it down as a winner. The game actually stayed Under by 24 points after regulation (61-all)

Updated through games of Wednesday 6/14

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-81-83-85-86 (81-81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-78-82 (72-74)
Washington: 72-75-79-81-82-82-84-86 (81-82)
Chicago: 71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-80)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-83-86-88 (82)
New York: 68-71-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (77)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-72-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80 (75-77)
Seattle: 72-73-74-74-76-80-82-82-83-85 (76-80)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82 (78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-85-94 (82)

Tonight's Connecticut/Charlotte game matches fast teams. There wasn't any steam representing thoughts about 150 being too low for that meeting though.

Seattle is in a back-to-back in Chicago. The back-to-backers have been struggling...but Chicago's not very good. Maybe Seattle purposely played slow knowing it was a back-to-back. Some NBA teams do that. After that game...the team's midpoints (Seattle and Minnesota) drifted back to league average. Could just turn out they're going to have average tempo's.

Fun playing around with this stuff...hope it leads to some dividends down the road....
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Old 06-16-2006, 11:25 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Updated through games of Thursday 6/15

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-81-83-85-86 (81-81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-78-82 (72-74)
Washington: 72-75-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (82)
Chicago: 68-71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75-75)
Detroit: 68-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-80)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-82-83-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-71-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (77)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-72-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80 (75-77)
Seattle: 68-72-73-74-74-76-80-82-82-83-85 (76)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82 (78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-85-94 (82)

Thursday Night:
Washington/Charlotte played to an 82...which wasn't surprising because they were two fast teams. What WAS surprising was that there wasn't any steam to the Over at the total of 150. The game landed on 173...with the same kind of framework as most Phoenix games. Charlotte's midpoints are 82 for the year...as is Washington's median. Quarters went 40-40-52-41...so even the lowest scoring quarters were on an Over pace. Vegas asleep at the wheel with the totals for a meeting like this.

Seattle/Chicago played to a 68...which tied NY/Detroit for the slowest game of the year. It looks to me like Seattle decided to slow things way down because of the back-to-back situation they were in. They played two very slow games in a row...and two games that went way Under the totals (this one was 135 against a Vegas total of 149. It would be great if Seattle could tell us ahead of time when they were going to do th is again! Something to be on the look out for if they have another back-to-back...or if we see a like-minded team try something similar on the first night of a back to backer.

Friday Night:
Houston/NY: Double Slow vs. a Vegas total of 140
Indiana/Detrot: Slow vs. borderline vs. a Vegas total of 139
Minnesota/SA: borderline vs. slow vs. a Vegas total of 156
Connecticut/Phoenix: fast vs. fast vs. a Vegas total of 175.5. Open was listed at a site I saw as 172...but I saw a 170.5 late yesterday. Clearly the steam is still hitting Overs in Phoenix games. It should against a team like Connecticut based on what we've been seeing this year. Tempo projects to 82-84 ish...and these guys play into the 180's when that happens. We'll see what happens tonight...

Good luck all...will be easier to get into a WNBA flow when the NBA finishes off...and the World Cup gets down to the Sweet 16...
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Old 06-17-2006, 07:14 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Updated through games of Friday 6/16

Connecticut: 74-77-80-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81-81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-78-82 (73)
Washington: 72-75-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (82)
Chicago: 68-71-72-75-75-75-76-80-82-86 (75-75)
Detroit: 68-73-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75)
Charlotte: 72-81-82-82-82-83-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-71-71-72-75-77-79-79-79-86 (75-77)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-74-75-75-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (75)
Los Angeles: 75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-77-78-79-80-83 (77)
Seattle: 68-72-73-74-74-76-80-82-82-83-85 (76)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82-83 (78-78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-84-85-94 (82-83)

Saturday:
Seattle at Sacramento (slow vs. slow...though Seattle as slow is a recent development. If they've decided to be slow on the road trip, it still applies here)

New York at Washington (slow vs. fast)
Houston at Detroit (slow vs. slow...plus Houston is in a back-to-back)
San Antonio at Chicago (slow vs. slow...plus SA is in a back-to-back)
Connecticut at LA (fast vs. fast)

Friday Night
*Houston/NY played to a 71...as a double slow lead to a very slow game and a double digit Under

*Indiana/Detroit played to a 73....Detroit was borderline going in, but had played very slow v. other slow teams. This one stayed Under by 5 points.

*Minnesota/SA played to an 83...which is extremely fast for SA. Yzer's talked about Minnesota wanting to run. Hard to say if that was the key here because they lost the game by 30 points. May have just been a garbage time thing. Fourth quarter had 53 points...others were 40-28-29.

*Connecticut/Phoenix played to an 84...which was expected given the way these teams play. The game snuck over the closing total by a bucket...but made it past earlier totals. Steamers again won with an Over in a Phoenix game. Totals went 39-49-43-46. Again...not a trifecta thing. Two fast teams will have at least one quarter near 50...and you just don't know when it's going to fall. The fact that it does fall though means the other three quarters don't have to be crazy to get the game Over.

I think the tempo stuff has yielded clear dividends in recent days on the whole. Hopefully some of you are applying it within your own handicapping process.
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Old 06-18-2006, 07:27 PM
Don Eagleston Don Eagleston is offline
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Keep up the good work blogguy. I, for one, a degerenate losing WNBA bettor, appreciate it greatly. Can't believe that six seconds off the shot clock has increased scoring so much. You pointed out that teams fare badly in back to backers. Took LA last night for that reason. Any stats on rested versus back to backers and traveling, like Conn was last night, versus home rested. Any stats you have are appreciated.
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Old 06-19-2006, 03:31 AM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Thanks DE. Don't really have stats like that handy myself. I usually look stuff up at covers.com if I'm trying to crunch some numbers. They've got team logs on everybody over there. You can at least see what all the teams have don individually in their prior back-to-backs by looking at the game log.

You also might think about graphing out the next month of the season. It's easy to do with just two divisions like this. I do t his in the NBA for all 30 teams. On a piece of graph paper...run the numbers from the dates across the top...and list the teams down the left side. From the team schedules at wnba.com...just put an "R" for each road game...and an "H" for each home game. This will let you see road trips and homestands at a glance...and the back-to-backs are easy to see. I usually use a yellow highlighter or something for those...then I circle any bigger extended tough spots (say a 3 in 4 or something. Not so common with the girls. NBA has several 4-5 spots and 5-7 spots. Those are worth seeing in advance than trying to monitor on the fly.

Hope that helps...

Updated through games of Sunday 6/18

Connecticut: 74-74-77-80-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-77-78-82 (73-74)
Washington: 72-75-75-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (81-82)
Chicago: 68-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-75)
Charlotte: 72-77-81-82-82-82-83-86-88 (82)
New York: 68-71-71-72-75-75-77-79-79-79-86 (75)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-72-74-75-75-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (73-75)
Los Angeles: 72-74-75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-76-77-78-79-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-72-73-74-74-76-78-80-82-82-83-85 (76-78)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-84-85-85-94 (83)

Saturday:
Seattle/Sacramento played to a 78
New York/Washington played to a 75
Houston/Detroit played to a 73
San Antonio/Chicago played to a 76
Connecticut/LA played to a 74 (looked like LA didn't want to run with fast Conn...and they owned the boards which forced the slower tempo. As DE mentioned...Connecticut was in back to back too.

Sunday:
Charlotte/Indiana played to a 77 in regulation...which is very fast for Indiana and very slow for Charlotte.

Phoenix/Minnesota played to 85...but the total ended up as a push thanks to a poor 9-34 combined performance on three-pointers. Yzer talked about Minnesota wanting to push...that certainly happened here.

Sacramento/LA played to a 72...both were in back-to-backs...so both played very slow. We're definitely seeing low numbers for back-to-back teams...something to think about in the future. Game only stayed Under by 3 points even with the super slow tempo though.

On the whole...we're still seeing mostly Unders when two slow teams play each other....and we're seeing enough tempo to take the high games Over unless it's a poor shooting night.

So far....so good...
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Old 06-21-2006, 07:11 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Updated through games of Tuesday 6/20

Connecticut: 74-74-77-80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-77-78-82 (73-74)
Washington: 72-75-75-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (81-82)
Chicago: 68-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-80-82-86 (75)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-75)
Charlotte: 72-77-81-81-82-82-82-83-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-71-71-72-75-75-77-79-79-79-86 (75)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-72-74-75-75-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-75-77-78-79-80-82 (73-75)
Los Angeles: 72-74-75-76-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-76-77-78-79-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-72-73-74-74-76-78-80-82-82-83-85 (76-78)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78)
Phoenix: 79-79-80-82-83-84-85-85-94 (83)

Monday's game was Connecticut/Charlotte...which was two "fast" teams who played an Over (barely---156 vs. a 155 or so)...with a tempo of 81.

Thus far...the tempo's are holding up very consistently. The lines are getting closer to matching reality.

Wednesday Night:
Chicago at Indiana (double slow)
Washington at New York (fast vs. slow)
Phoenix at Seattle (fast vs. slow...but some of Seattle's slow came on a road trip where they seemed to slow things down to save themselves for the trip)
San Antonio at Sacramento (double slow)
Houston at Los Angeles (slow vs. fast)

Nobody's in a back to back tonight. In fact, everyone should be pretty well rested after having a couple of days off. Seattle is in a "first home" after a road trip. That's traditionally a "go against" in the NBA. Not sure if it means anything in this league.

Good luck all...
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Old 06-22-2006, 10:51 AM
Immanuel Kant Immanuel Kant is offline
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If people are not following this thread, then I guess, there really is truth to the statement I once heard that goes, "some people just don't like money!"

A very big thank you from me.

Cheers IK
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Old 06-22-2006, 05:57 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Thanks IK! Glad this stuff is working out for you...and hopefully others too. I haven't gone back to figure out a record because I didn't want to mess with the mojo. So far the logic of the numbers is holding up...


Updated through games of Wednesday 6/21

Connecticut: 74-74-77-80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 70-71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-77-78-82 (73-74)
Washington: 70-72-75-75-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (81)
Chicago: 68-70-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-80-82-86 (75-75)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-75-75-80-84-84-85 (75-75)
Charlotte: 72-77-81-81-82-82-82-83-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-70-71-71-72-75-75-77-79-79-79-86 (75-75)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-72-74-75-75-77-78-79-94 (75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-75-77-77-78-79-80-82 (75)
Los Angeles: 72-74-75-76-77-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (79-80)
San Antonio: 71-75-74-75-76-77-77-78-79-80-83 (77)
Seattle: 68-72-73-74-74-76-78-78-80-82-82-83-85 (78)
Minnesota: 73-74-75-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78)
Phoenix: 78-79-79-80-82-83-84-85-85-94 (82-83)

Wednesday Night:
Chicago/Indiana played to a 70...a very slow game for the two slow teams.

Washington/New York also played a 70..well below normal for those guys

Phoenix/Seattle played to a 78...this is very slow for Phoenix...suggesting that Seattle may be continuing the tendency they showed on the road trip. This was actually the slowest game Phoenix played all year.

San Antonio/Sacramento played to a 77...which is a bit fast for a "double slow" game...but it still stayed Under by by a bucket

Houston/Los Angeles played to a 77....kind of meeting in the middle of their tendencies.

I'm getting the sense that the league as a whole is kind of settling in a little bit. We're seeing fewer games in the 80's. Could be that teams are trying to pace themselves for the full season. The running teams are still running...but it's not crazy. I'll still look for fast high scoring games when we've got a "fast-fast" matchup. The value lately has been asking the "slow-slow" games to stay low. Hope some of you guys are keeping eyes out for other things. If all the fast/slow games were also going Under, I'd miss it because I've just been looking at the extremes. There may also be certain teams who are having more or less ATS success against one type or another.

Best of luck to everyone. Don't forget to check in the MESS HALL and in Yzer's BLOG for more news and notes about the league. Please feel free to share any ideas you have as well right here on this thread!
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Old 06-23-2006, 11:35 PM
Yzerman#19 Yzerman#19 is offline
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couple things to add here;

Look for Washington's # to dip a bit in the coming weeks, they're w/o their 2nd leading scorer milton-jones- will have more of an impact on spreads than it will totals.

Also Can't wait to see what happens tonight with Indiana @ Phoenix. Indiana likes to take their time and Phoenix at home will just push until their legs fall off, Phoenix already with home wins over Conn, Det & Sac.. Indiana 3-4 on the road with some pretty embarassing losses.
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Old 06-25-2006, 02:55 AM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Got to catch up from the last 3 days here. Spent a lot of time arguing soccer of all things, lol... A lot of "mixed" games the past few days...with slows playing fasts. Looks like Sunday will give us some nominees for consideration based on the recent tendencies.

Catching up:
Detroit/Charlotte played to a 79
Minnesota/Connecticupt played to a 72

Connecticut/Chicago played to a 78
Charlotte/Houston played to an 84
LA/Sacramento played to a 72
San Antonio/Seattle played to a 72
Indiana/Phoenix played to a 79 (averaging their extreme tendencies)

Washington/Detroit played to a 76
New York/Minnesota played to a 76

Updated through games of Saturday 6/24

Connecticut: 72-74-74-77-78-80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 70-71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-77-78-79-82 (74)
Washington: 70-72-75-75-76-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (79-81)
Chicago: 68-70-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-78-80-82-86 (75-76)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-75-75-76-79-80-84-84-85 (75-76)
Charlotte: 72-77-79-81-81-82-82-82-83-84-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-70-71-71-72-75-75-76-77-79-79-79-86 (75)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-77-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-75-77-77-78-79-80-82-84 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 72-72-74-75-76-77-79-80-80-82-82-84-87 (79-80)
San Antonio: 71-72-75-74-75-76-77-77-78-79-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-72-72-73-74-74-76-78-78-80-82-82-83-85 (76-78)
Minnesota: 72-73-74-75-76-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78-78)
Phoenix: 78-79-79-79-80-82-83-84-85-85-94 (82)

Sunday:
Charlotte at Detroit (fast /slow)
Seattle at Houston (slow lately/slow)
Connectict at Washington: (fast/fast)
Chicago at Phoenix (slow/fast)
Indiana at Sacramento (slow/slow)
San Antonio at Los Angeles (slow/fast)

I've said before that I haven't had a chance to see if certain teams have big differences based on the type of opponent they have. We've just been looking at fast/fast and slow/slow. When Detroit played to a 178 total vs Washington Saturday...and a 160 vs. Charlotte (both Overs by good margins...it reminded me that they had shown a tendency to play to the opponent. That could signal an Over vs. Charlotte. The problem is...it's a back-to-back...and we've seen some slowdowns in back-to-back games. Something to think about. Look at the posted total and see what you think.
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Old 06-28-2006, 01:41 AM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Updated through games of Sunday 6/25

Connecticut: 72-74-74-77-78-78=80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (81)
Indiana: 70-71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-75-77-78-79-82 (74)
Washington: 70-72-75-75-76-78-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (79-81)
Chicago: 68-70-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-78-80-81-82-86 (75-76)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-75-75-76-78-79-80-84-84-85 (75-76)
Charlotte: 72-77-78-79-81-81-82-82-82-83-84-86-88 (82-82)
New York: 68-70-71-71-72-75-75-76-77-79-79-79-86 (75)

Sacramento: 71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-75-77-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-75-77-77-77-78-79-80-82-84 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 72-72-74-75-76-77-79-80-80-80-82-82-84-87 (79-80)
San Antonio: 71-72-75-74-75-76-77-77-78-79-80-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-72-72-73-74-74-76-77-78-78-80-82-82-83-85 (76-78)
Minnesota: 72-73-74-75-76-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78-78)
Phoenix: 78-79-79-79-80-81-82-83-84-85-85-94 (82)

I haven't changed the stuff in parenthesis because there are a bunch of games Tuesday night...and I'd just have to change some back lol. As I write this it's been an Under night on Tuesday...and tempo's across the board seem to be slowing down. The wear and tear of the season may be encouraging a general slowdown for some borderline teams. We used to have lists of fast and slow. The next one will probably be a few fast...a few slow...and a few REALLY slow. Line value still seems to be apparent with the fast/fast and slow/slow guidelines. We'll keep monitoring as things progress.

Yzer...now that dinque's race to 20 units thing is over...we expect to see more of you in the THINK TANK! Feel free to post duplicates of your BLOG here if you wish. Might be some people that hang out in the forums that don't see the front page. Major probably wouldn't have a problem if you posted them in the MESS HALL either...
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Old 06-28-2006, 06:49 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Tuesday Night's Results:

Houston/Connecticut played to a 74
Indiana/Washington played to a 76
Charlotte/New York played to a 78
Detroit/San Antonio played to a 74
Sacramento/Seattle played to a 69

All five games went Under their totals...and you can see that it was a very slow night across the sport. Games stayed Under by 12, 7, 7, 25, and 29 points. There were two "slow/slow" games...and both stayed Under (the bottom two...the ones that stayed Under by 25 and 29 points!). There weren't any "fast/fast" games.

Hope some of you got a chance to chart the schedules on graph paper the way I suggested in an earlier post. You would have seen that Seattle was starting a back-to-back last night...and remembered that the last time they were in that kind of boat they suddenly got very slow. Last night the same thing happened at home against Sacramento. Off the charts slow, just like the last time. So, clearly the head coach is slowing them down in back-to-backs to save their energy for both games. Tough task tonight though playing in LA on night two of a back-to-back.


Updated through games of Tuesday 6/27

Connecticut: 72-74-74-74-77-78-78-80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (80)
Indiana: 70-71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-75-76-77-78-79-82 (74-75)
Washington: 70-72-75-75-76-76-78-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (78-79)
Chicago: 68-70-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-78-80-81-82-86 (75-76)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-74-75-75-76-78-79-80-84-84-85 (75-76)
Charlotte: 72-77-78-78-79-81-81-82-82-82-83-84-86-88 (81-82)
New York: 68-70-71-71-72-75-75-76-77-78-79-79-79-86 (75-76)

Sacramento: 69-71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-75-77-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-74-75-77-77-77-78-79-80-82-84 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 72-72-74-75-76-77-79-80-80-80-82-82-84-87 (79-80)
San Antonio: 71-72-75-74-74-75-76-77-77-78-79-80-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-69-72-72-73-74-74-76-77-78-78-80-82-82-83-85 (76-77)
Minnesota: 72-73-74-75-76-76-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78)
Phoenix: 78-79-79-79-80-81-82-83-84-85-85-94 (81-82)

We should probably lower our definitions a bit since the tempo's everywhere are slowing down:
79-up: fast
78: neutral
76-77 slow
75 or below: really slow

FAST
Connecticut
Washington
Charlotte
Phoenix
Los Angeles

NEUTRAL
Minnesota

SLOW
Seattle
San Antonio
Houston
Detroit
Chicago
New York

REALLY SLOW
Indiana
Sacramento

Wednesday Night:
Minnesota at Phoenix: Neutral/Fast
Seattle at LA: Slow/Fast

Congrats to those of you who have been following along with us here. Please feel free to add in anything you may have discovered with your own numbers crunching in the WNBA!
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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2006, 04:55 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,631
Default WNBA TEMPO LINES

Minnesota/Phoenix played to a 78...but stayed Under a tall Phoenix-based total. Note this tied for the slowest Phoenix game this year. Minnesota was on night one of a back to back, and may have been following a tendency we've been seeing for teams to try and slow down their tempo in that situation. Keeping Phoenix to a 78 is actually a bit of an anvil.

Seattle/LA played to a 77...and also stayed Under...which Seattle has been doing a lot of in its back-to-back sequences

Updated through games of Wednesday 6/28

Connecticut: 72-74-74-74-77-78-78-80-81-81-81-83-84-85-86 (80)
Indiana: 70-71-71-72-72-72-73-74-75-75-75-76-77-78-79-82 (74-75)
Washington: 70-72-75-75-76-76-78-79-81-82-82-82-84-86 (78-79)
Chicago: 68-70-71-72-75-75-75-76-76-78-80-81-82-86 (75-76)
Detroit: 68-73-73-74-74-75-75-76-78-79-80-84-84-85 (75-76)
Charlotte: 72-77-78-78-79-81-81-82-82-82-83-84-86-88 (81-82)
New York: 68-70-71-71-72-75-75-76-77-78-79-79-79-86 (75-76)

Sacramento: 69-71-71-72-72-72-74-75-75-75-77-78-79-94 (74-75)
Houston: 71-71-72-73-73-73-74-75-77-77-77-78-79-80-82-84 (75-77)
Los Angeles: 72-72-74-75-76-77-77-79-80-80-80-82-82-84-87 (79)
San Antonio: 71-72-75-74-74-75-76-77-77-78-79-80-80-83 (76-77)
Seattle: 68-69-72-72-73-74-74-76-77-77-78-78-80-82-82-83-85 (77)
Minnesota: 72-73-74-75-76-76-78-78-78-78-80-82-83-85 (78=78)
Phoenix: 78-78-79-79-79-80-81-82-83-84-85-85-94 (8)

Thursday Night:
Washington at Houston (fast/slow)
Detroit at Indiana (slow/ really slow)
Charlotte at Chicago (fast/slow)
Minnesota at Sacramento (neutral/really slow)...and a back to back for Minnesota

I'll be posting some comments on recent total developments in a separate thread today...
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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 04:34 PM
johnwals johnwals is offline
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Default WNBA TEMPO LINES

i've been using this with success. are you still updating it?
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  #36 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 04:45 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,631
Default WNBA TEMPO LINES

Glad to hear that you were using these john...

I had to take July off because of some family commitments and a need to recharge the batteries before football gets rolling. So...I haven't been able to keep juggling different things in the time away. I can't imagine that too many things have changed in the few weeks since I had to stop. Have you noticed any tempo changes from teams?

Maybe I'll be able to pick things up again in August. We'll see when we get there. The important thing I guess is that looking at tempo's can help you see things you weren't seeing before...and things that the oddsmakers might be missing too. Thanks for popping in and checking on the stat. Feel free to share any thoughts you may have about the approach, or details from your efforts.

blg
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  #37 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:47 AM
johnwals johnwals is offline
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how have you been measuring tempo? just amount of shots?
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  #38 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2006, 02:28 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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The formula I use is posted earlier in this very same thread. Go back to page 1...and scroll down to where "Colorado" asks the same question. The explanation is there in the next post. If you have additional questions, feel free to ask!
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