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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 05-21-2006, 03:47 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

I've been playing around with a bunch of stuff on paper since running that list of bullpen ERA's the other day. At some point I'll try to write everything up in an all-encompassing strategy.

The gist will be:
*If the teams grade out to be "comparable" just use the coin flip theory.
*If the teams DON'T grade out to be comparable, lay affordable prices.
*If the teams DON'T grade out to be comparable, look for underdog returns at -1.5 runs in ballparks with an index of at least 102 (hitter's parks where scoring is more volatile and 1-run games less common)

We can add it over/under stuff too, as well well as 5-inning stuff. I can already tell my "simplified" strategy for finding baseball plays will have about 20 rules with a few "except when" situations. It will be just like a poker book, lol.

Anyway...one of the simplest things to keep track of since we've done the bullpen work is just to look to see when struggling starters are going for a team that has a lousy bullpen. That would seem at least to offer up opportunities for consideration.

A review of bottom 10 bullpens:
20 CHW 4.72
21 SEA 4.75
22 CIN 4.78
23 TOR 4.84
24 FLA 4.98
25 CLE 5.15
26 HOU 5.16
27 BAL 5.26
28 SF 5.53
29 KC 5.66
30 TB 5.97

Friday:
*Royals Redman....St. Louis scores 9 runs in 9-6 win
*Blue Jays Towers...Colorado scores 8 runs in 8-3 win
(Florida and Tampa Bay arguably cancel out with Moehler vs. Fossum...though Moehler was the lesser of the two guys and Florida ended up losing 5-4. I'll leave it out.)

Opponents of bad starter/bad bullpen:
2-0 straight up
2-0 at 1.5 run lines (both parks here qualified)
Average of 8.5 runs per opposing offense

Saturday:
*Indians Johnson...Pittsburgh scores 9 runs in a 9-6 win
*Royals Batista (borderline as bad)...St. Louis scores 4 runs in a 4-2 win
*Reds Milton...Tigers score 7 runs in a 7-6 win
*Orioles Lopez...Washington scores 8 runs in an 8-3 win
*Devil Rays Waechter...Florida scores 3 runs in a 4-3 loss (oops)
*Blue Jays O. Tannenbaum (or whatever...rookie debut)...Colorado scores 5 runs in a 5-1 win

Opponents of bad starter/bad bullpen:
5-1 straight up
4-2 at 1.5 run lines (though Pittsburgh was a dog and wouldn't have had a -1.5 run line, nor would Johnson of Florida...also, not all the parks would have qualified for consideration anyway based on 102 index threshold)
Average of 6.0 runs per opposing offense

That's a promising start needless to say.

Bad starters backed up by bad bullpens got squashed by opponents to the tune of 7-1...with six of the eight victories being by 2 runs or more.

Sunday's "go against" qualifiers:
*Cleveland's Byrd (6.45 ERA for the season) with 25th bullpen
*Baltimore's Chen (8.23 ERA for the season) with 27th bullpen
*Florida's Willis (?) (5.53 ERA for the season) with 24th bullpen
*Houston's Buchholz (5.31 ERA for the season ) with 26th bullpen
*SF's Cain (6.69 ERA for the season) with 28th bullpen

I'm a little hesitant to call Willis a bad pitcher. But...any sort of logical system based on stats would call him that this year. The prices in those games are surprisingly cheap considering the dynamics in place. It's not like you've got to lay 250 with St. Louis over KC or something.

Pittsburgh is a big dog
Washington is a 140 or so favorite
TB is a 140 or so favorite
Texas is a pick-em
Oakland is a 150 or so favorite

I wanted to put these up today so we could all monitor them together. Usually that jinxes a system into a crash and burn immediately. Better to find out now than later. But...in general I do think this is a good way to look for value. Since the first two days were so strong monitoring on my own I figured I'd get these up Sunday for consideration.

Please don't take this as an advisory that these are "must plays" or "locks" or anything. The info might affect your thinking in terms of the slate you had already considered...or even some totals because of the scoring possibilities when arms are on the mound. I still see people chasing some teams with bad bullpens then being mad when they lose late. Just the sheer act of taking teams with bottom 10 bullpens off your daily slate is probably worth money in the long run...even if you're not using bullpens to "make" selections. Use the bullpens to cull selections!

Good luck to all. Feel free to share your thoughts on bullpens as we continue to develop some formal approaches here in the tank...
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Old 05-21-2006, 07:25 PM
jjdman jjdman is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

Where are you getting your bullpen numbers? You can't use a site that keeps the numbers running all year and doesn't delete numbers of pitchers no longer on the roster.
I.E Baltimore, Feist shows a 5.29 ERA while Covers has it at 3.74 with only current pitchers
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You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.

Earl Weaver
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Old 05-21-2006, 07:55 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

I just cut and paste what's below from covers.com this instant.

26 FLA 5.03
27 BAL 5.14
28 SF 5.35
29 TB 5.56
30 KC 5.60

I assume those are bullpen performance numbers for the full season. I don't think we can make a blanket assumption that getting rid of guys who are struggling automatically fixes the problem. There has to be proof that the replacements are going to do a much better job.

This week Baltimore allowed: 11-6-3-1-8-3

That's 34 runs in 6 games for a 5.7 average. Not ready to think of them as a strong bullpen in that light. But half the games were at 3 or less, which was a good sign.

Covers.com has a full rundown on the stats page of their baseball section. The numbers used in the above article came from what I cut and pasted from there a few days ago in that other thread...as was mentioned at the time..

blg...
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Old 05-22-2006, 04:09 AM
jjdman jjdman is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: blogguy

I just cut and paste what's below from covers.com this instant.



26 FLA 5.03

27 BAL 5.14

28 SF 5.35

29 TB 5.56

30 KC 5.60


I assume those are bullpen performance numbers for the full season. I don't think we can make a blanket assumption that getting rid of guys who are struggling automatically fixes the problem. There has to be proof that the replacements are going to do a much better job.



This week Baltimore allowed: 11-6-3-1-8-3



That's 34 runs in 6 games for a 5.7 average. Not ready to think of them as a strong bullpen in that light. But half the games were at 3 or less, which was a good sign.



Covers.com has a full rundown on the stats page of their baseball section. The numbers used in the above article came from what I cut and pasted from there a few days ago in that other thread...as was mentioned at the time..



blg...</end quote></div>

Blog here are the curent numbers

http://www.covers.com/pageLoad...ps/g4_bullpens_19.html
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You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.

Earl Weaver
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Old 05-22-2006, 07:11 AM
dinque dinque is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

meanwhile,as is typical with baseball,you identify 5 starting pitchers who have pretty much stunk all season and how did they all pitch.i hate to be mr negative the second but this sport will rip your heart out and there are 10-15 games every day for six months to ruin you before foots
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Old 05-22-2006, 02:47 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Default Sunday Listing of Struggling Starters with Bad Bullpens

No worries Dinque...2-3 for the day is still 9-4 for the weekend, with 8 of the 9 victories coming by 2 runs or more at what were mostly underdog prices on the 1.5 run level.

It's true...this sport does rip your heart out though. It's one where I'd rather have five or seven little plays a day than 1-2 big ones because of that. You've got to spread out the randomness influence a bit.

Note...the opposing offenses for the five spots weren't exactly big scoring teams. With the 1-3 scale I was using as discussed in the other thread (1 being for bad offenses, 3 being for good offenses as determined by an assessment mostly of road medians):

Pittsburgh 1
Washington 1.5
Tampa Bay 1
Texas 3 (but the roof was shut in Houston, horrible visibility)
Oakland 2

These wouldn't have qualified as "cocktails" where poor pitching scenarios were lined up against strong offenses in strong hitter's parks. Well, Texas would have but I went something like 30-10 playing Unders in day games in that park a couple of years ago when the mold was on the roof. They cleaned that up before last year...so it's only a partial scoring inhibitor now.

Still...it's funny that guys like Cain (1 hitter) and Bucholz (5 hitter) picked Sunday to hurl shutouts. That's life with baseball as you know...
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