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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 04-29-2006, 02:34 AM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
Join Date: Dec 2005
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Default MLB Starting Pitchers GB/FB and K Rate Handicapping Tool

These are the projected assessments in ground ball percentage and strikeouts per nine innings for rotation starters according to the Baseball Prospectus publication. These are handy stats for handicappers because they give you a sense of how each guy gets the job done (or doesn't get the job done in some cases).

You can also match up the style against the style of the opponent. A flyball pitcher will have trouble against a home run hitting team in good offensive conditions...but he might do well if the wind is blowing in on a chilly night or in a spacious park. A guy who gets a lot of strikeouts may be able to avoid the hazards of the conditions. On the other hand...a ground ball guy could have more success than you had been thinking on a grass field against a weak hitting team. All sorts of possibilities for you to get creative with.

48% and higher should be thought of as ground ball pitchers
45% and less are more fly ball types

6.0 K/9 IP is kind of the threshold for guys who are considered strikeout pitchers. Anybody less than that is relying on the defense to help them. Anybody you see in the 4's with an established reputation keeps hitters of balance so that they put the ball in play without making great contact)


Smoltz: 46% and 6.0 (craftiness makes him an ace)
Hudson: 57% and 4.8 (extreme ground ball guy)
Thomson: 48% and 5.1 (ground ball)
Davies: 41% and 6.4 (extreme fly ball and good K's)
Sosa: 40% and 5.6 (extreme fly ball guy)

Willis: 46% and 5.9 (tough to make good contact)
Olson: 45% and 7.3 (high K rate))
Mitre: 57% and 5.2 (extreme ground ball)
Vargas: 36% and 6.0 (extreme fly ball)
Moehler: 46% and 4.2 (gets by with few walks...awful K rate)
Johnson: 51% and 5.4 (extreme ground ball)

P. Martinez: 42% and 8.2 (extreme fly gall and high K's)
Glavine: 48% and 4.0 (ground balls and guile)
Zambrano: 50% and 5.9 (ground ball guy)
Trachsel: 43% and 4.8 (fly balls and guile)
Bannister: 47% and 5.8 (rookie...okay so far)
Maine: 42% and 6.1 (extreme fly ball guy, from Balt org.)

Lidle: 51% and 4.9 (ground ball guy)
Myers: 48% and 6.8 (nice combo of GB's and K's)
Lieber: 48% and 5.2 (guile and ground balls)
Floyd: 47% and 5.6 (not many K's on this staff)
Madsen: 50% and 6.9 (potential with that K rate)

L. Hernandez: 45% and 4.2 (still chugging along)
Patterson: 36% and 6.6 (great in home park last year...extreme FB and good K rate)
Ortiz: 43% and 4.5 (fly ball...struggling)
Traber: 52% and 4.8 (ground ball...shaky start)
Armas: 40% and 5.2 (extreme fly ball guy, good for home park)
Day: 53% and 4.5 (ground ball, and another low K rate)
O'Connor: 47% and 5.1 (ground ball)


Maddux: 52% and 4.7 (ground balls and guile)
Zambrano: 52% and 7.0 (ground balls and high K rate)
Rusch: 44% and 5.6 (fly balls make him HR prone)
J. Williams: 49% and 5.1 (ground ball guy)
Marshall: 52% and 5.1 (ground balls, learning the ropes)
Guzman: no stats, but reportedly a 96 mph fastball
Hill: 43% and 7.5 (youngster with bright future, fly ball guy, high K's)

Harang: 43% and 6.0 (fly ball guy)
Arroyo: 42% and 5.3 (changing leagues may have helped)
Claussen: 40% and 5.9 (extreme fly ball guy)
D. Williams: 43% and 5.6 (fly ball guy)
Ramirez: 48% and 4.3 (getting a shot)

Oswalt: 48% and 6.2 (ace results without high K's)
Pettite: 51% and 6.5 (ground balls and nice K rate)
Rodriguez: 45% and 5.3 (doing well early)
Buckholz: 46% and 4.8 (okay so clear strengths)
Nieve: 42% and 6.l (extreme fly ball guy)

Sheets: 43% and 6.8 (fly ball guy who gets a bunch of K's)
Davis: 47% and 6.3 (good combo of GB's and K's)
Capuano: 42% and 6.0 (fly ball guy)
Ohka: 44% and 4.5 (ground balls and guile)
Bush: 46% and 5.2 (inconsistent start)

Duke: 49% and 5.6 (ground ball guy, sophomore jinx?)
Perez: 37% and 7.9 (has fallen off the map this year)
Snell: 41% and 6.3 (extreme fly ball guy)
Maholm: 56% and 5.4 (extreme ground ball guy)
Santos: 44% and 5.1 (not much to recommend him)

Carpenter: 53% and 6.4 (good mix of GB's and K's...ace stats)
Mulder: 56% and 5.1 (extreme ground ball guy)
Marquis: 52% and 4.6 (ground ball guy)
Suppan: 49% and 4.9 (ground balls and guile)
Ponson: 53% and 4.7 (ground balls and girth)


Webb: 61% and 6.1 (extreme ground ball guy)
O. Hernandez: 41% and 6.2 (extreme fly ball guy)
Ortiz: 43% and 4.5 (fly ball guy...not a good year to be a pitching Ortiz)
Bautista: 51% and 5.6 (ground ball guy)
Vargas: 39% and 5.8 (extreme fly ball guy)
Cruz: 44% and 7.1 (fly ball and good K's, newcomer)

Jennings: 50% and 3.7 (ground ball...puts everything into play)
Fogg: 45% and 4.3 (not impressive recently)
Francis: 43% and 6.2 (rare Rockie with a high K rate)
Cook: 59% and 3.6 (extreme ground ball...puts everything into play)
Kim: 48% and 5.4 (ground ball guy)

Penny: 46% and 5.7 (surprising success for these numbers)
Lowe: 61% and 4.8 (extreme ground ball guy)
Perez: 50% and 5.2 (ground ball guy)
Tomko: 43% and 4.7 (fly ball guy...aging)
Seo: 43% and 5.2 (fly ball guy)

Peavy: 43% and 7.4 (fly ball guy and high K rate)
Young: 38% and 6.5 (extreme fly ball with high K's)
Williams: 41% and 5.2 (extreme fly ball guy, good home park for that)
Hensley: 52% and 4.8 (ground balls but no K's)
Park: 47% and 5.7 (stats will be helped by ballpark)

Schmidt: 42% and 7.7 (extreme fly ball guy with high K rate)
Morris: 52% and 5.1 (extreme ground ball guy)
Hennessey: 49% and 4.5 (ground balls but no K's)
Cain: 36% and 7.6 (love that high K rate for a youngster)
Wright: 53% and 5.2 (extreme ground ball guy)


Bedard: 43% and 7.2 (fly balls and a high K rate)
Cabrera: 47% and 7.2 (great K rate...a bit untamed)
Lopez: 45% and 5.3 (crafty)
Benson: 43% and 4.9 (fly ball, but no K's)
Chen: 41% and 6.0 (extreme fly ball)

Schilling: 41% and 7.1 (fly ball guy with high K rate)
Beckett: 44% and 7.3 (fly ball guy with high K rate)
Clement: 48% and 6.6 (nice K's)
Wakefield: 43% and 5.7 (knuckleballer)
Dinardo: 57% and 5.8 (extreme ground ball guy, shaky so far)

R. Johnson: 43% and 7.4 (good park for a lefty with fly ball's and K's)
Mussina: 45% and 6.6 (still a good K rate)
Chacon: 40% and 5.1 (extreme fly ball)
Wang: 56% and 4.3 (extreme ground ball, few K's)
Wright: 46% and 5.8 (only recent success was with Atlanta pitching coach)

Kazmir: 42% and 8.2 (big future based on that K rate)
Fossum: 41% and 6.3 (extreme fly ball and decent K's)
McClung: 39% and 6.6 (very extreme fly ball and high K...but struggling)
Jackson: 41% and 5.1 (extreme fly ball guy)
Hendrickson: 47% and 3.9 (puts everything into play)
Waechter: 38% and 5.0 (extreme fly ball)

Halladay: 57% and 8.5 (extreme GB and great K rate)
Burnett: 53% and 7.3 (great combo of GB's and K's when healthy)
Towers: 46% and 4.4 (not much there, especially on Sundays!)
Chacin: 44% and 5.4 (fly ball guy)
Lilly: 40% and 6.6 (has always had a high K rate)
Jannsen: 54% and 4.8 (extreme ground ball guy, few K's)


Buerhle: 48% and 5.3 (craftiness gives him ace results)
Garcia: 48% and 6.0 (ground balls and guile)
Contreras: 45% and 6.8 (strong K rate)
Garland: 47% and 4.7 (ground balls and even more guile)
Vazquez: 41% and 7.0 (big K rate, fly ball guy)

Sabathia: 47% and 6.6 (late start this year)
Westbrook: 58% and 4.87 (extreme ground ball guy)
Lee: 38% and 6.7 (extreme fly ball with high K's)
Byrd: 41% and 5.6 (fly ball guy)
Johnson: 49% and 4.4 (ground balls, but no K's)
Carmona 51% and 4.1 (extreme ground ball guy)

Bonderman: 48% and 6.8 (ground balls and a high K rate)
Maroth: 47% and 4.6 (ground balls and craftiness)
Rogers: 48% and 4.3 (ground balls and anger)
Robertson: 49% and 5.6 (Maroth with more K's)
Verlander: 44% and 6.5 (good K rate for youngster)

Elarton: 38% and 5.0 (extreme fly ball guy)
Affeldt: 49% and 6.6 (shaky career for these stats)
Redman: 46% and 4.8 (ugly combo)
Mays: 47% and 3.7 (horrible this year)
R. Hernandez: 42% and 5.1 (extreme fly ball guy)

Santana: 40% and 8.7 (extreme fly ball with great K's)
Radke: 44% and 4.8 (guile seems to be about it)
Silva: 49% and 3.4 (extremely low K rate)
Lohse: 45% and 4.5 (not much going for him)
Baker: 38% and 5.5 (extreme fly ball guy)


Escobar: 45% and 7.8 (great K rate)
Lackey: 45% and 7.2 (strong K's)
Weaver: 32% and 7.0 (very extreme fly ball...great K rate)
Santana: 39% and 6.3 (extreme fly ball and good K rate)
Carrasco: 45% and 6.4 (the Halo's love those K's)

Zito: 42% and 6.4 (fly ball guy and strong K rate)
Harden: 45% and 7.9 (strong K's but injury issues)
Haren: 46% and 6.3 (not Harden...but good)
Loaiza: 45% and 6.0 (disabled May 1)
Blanton: 45% and 5.4 (can be tough to hit some nights)
Halsey: 45% and 4.9 (low K rate for this franchise)
Saarloos: 54% and 3.6 (extreme ground ball, horrible K rate)

F. Hernandez: 55% and 7.6 (extreme GB and K's...big future)
Moyer: 42% and 4.9 (fly balls and a lot of guile)
Pineiro: 46% and 5.3 (M's pitchers put the ball in play)
Washburn: 41% and 4.8 (extreme fly ball, low K's)
Meche: 42% and 5.4 (fly ball guy, generic)

Millwood: 46% and 6.2 (likely to struggle in Arlington, okay on the road)
Padilla: 46% and 5.6 (too early to tell)
Loe: 53% and 5.3 (extreme ground ball)
Koronka: 46% and 4.6 (stats don't say why they're high on him)
Tejada: 37% and 6.6 (extreme fly ball guy, good K rate)

Now updated through Thursday May 4 to account for new guys getting starts....
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Old 04-29-2006, 11:11 AM
jjdman jjdman is offline
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 3,539
Default MLB Starting Pitchers GB/FB and K Rate Handicapping Tool

Chen: 41% and 6.0 (extreme fly ball)

Most of them land on the other side of the fence
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.

Earl Weaver
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Old 05-16-2006, 04:53 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,631
Default MLB Starting Pitchers GB/FB and K Rate Handicapping Tool

Wanted to bump this up because I've been using it most days. I might be the only one...but I need it near the top!

I noticed during the early rush of scoring that starting pitchers with low strikeout numbers were having particular troubles. If the ball is constantly being put into play during good scoring would make sense that those guys would have trouble. Since we've seen an other upswing in scoring lately (possibly from weather warming up again in certain places...who knows?), I figured this chart should be kept handy for awhile longer.

Even if you don't beileve in weather conditions and flyball stuff...that high strikeout low strikeout portion of the datat might have value for you...
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Old 05-24-2006, 04:04 AM
1990 1990 is offline
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2
Default MLB Starting Pitchers GB/FB and K Rate Handicapping Tool

I like this wanted to bump it and wondering if you got update.
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