Here's one you can use all season long.

Grandfather · 04-27-2006, 08:56 PM

Going into today, Kansas City was 123-5 to have at least 1 OVER in a Home series.
(That's almost 5 years worth)
The 1st two games of their series with Minnesota went under.

So of course, we had a 123-5 trend working today.

Yup, game #3 goes OVER!! Now the trend stands at 124-5.

Ya, I know it was hard to bet over with Santana going. I even held back to just a 1/2 unit on the over. That's why I didn't post before the game.
But with about 27 home series in a year, there's plenty of time to cash in on this unreal trend.

Good luck and Good scoring.

Grandfather · 04-27-2006, 09:03 PM

Oh ya. This stuff may not be everyone's "cup of tea".
But a winner always makes my Krumpets go down better.
A winner and a [img]i/expressions/beer.gif[/img] work's too...LOL!

Happy Days & Happy Trails to you.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Bostongambler · 04-27-2006, 09:24 PM

Good Job GF

Juice · 04-27-2006, 10:53 PM

Thats an incredible stat. Wow.

Yzerman#19 · 04-27-2006, 11:29 PM

love these trends GF!

congrats and keep em coming [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

blogguy · 04-28-2006, 01:47 AM

Thanks GF...your trends are always welcome here...

Grandfather · 04-30-2006, 08:53 PM

Thought we may not get an over in this series, since Saturday's game was rained out along with the sure "over" it was on the way to be.

But never fear, Sunday's game comes through and is the "over" we were looking for.

stat now: 125-5

KC now hits the road for awhile.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img]

namathfan · 05-01-2006, 12:12 AM

GF, thanks for sharing the info.

Just wondering the "why" behind the 125-5.

KC not noted for strong hitting. Then again pitching hasn't really been a strength the past 5 years either. Not sure about o/u tendencies for the ballpark.

Wonder if any other ballparks have any similar results?

Grandfather · 05-01-2006, 04:15 AM

"Wonder if any other ballparks have any similar results? "

Oh yes indeed they do!!!

tony27 · 06-20-2006, 09:36 PM

matthew1811 · 06-22-2006, 02:49 PM

The tricky part would be figuring out which game is the over one, or do you just wait until game 3 and take the over if there has yet to be one?

tony27 · 07-06-2006, 02:52 PM

what is the updated record for this anyone

matthew i believe if you used the martindale system game win 100/ if it loses double up to 200/if it loses double up to 400/ if it loses double up to 800

Yzerman#19 · 07-16-2006, 09:37 PM

" what is the updated record for this anyone "

Since the 27th of April KC has had 10 home series and all 10 have had at least 1 over.

snowman · 07-17-2006, 01:54 AM

grandfather strikes again with a good stat. thanks yzerman for the update

the mighty quinn · 08-10-2006, 04:59 PM

Does a "push" count? Otherwise, there hasn't been over in the Boston series, and a push in game 1 has been the closest. Dare we put the stat to the test?

Schilling vs. Hernandez Over 10.5 @ even money.

nehpets · 08-19-2006, 11:08 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: the mighty quinn
Does a "push" count? Otherwise, there hasn't been over in the Boston series, and a push in game 1 has been the closest. Dare we put the stat to the test?
Schilling vs. Hernandez Over 10.5 @ even money.</end quote></div>
= LOSS (5-4 KC)
system = ?able and probably a long term loser because of the juice

point shaver · 09-15-2006, 03:17 AM

NICE CALL

blogguy · 09-18-2006, 08:10 PM

Got curious about this one since the season's almost over.

Through the games of Sunday September 17th

Kansas City's played 24 series.

22 had an Over
2 failed to have an Over

The martingale for a three-game series that fails is minus seven units (losing 1 unit, losing 2 units, and losing 4 units)

The martingale for a four-game series that fails is minus 15 units (add a losing 8 units to the previous example)

There was one failure in each a three-game and four game series this year, resulting in:

Plus 22 units in the successes
Minus 22 units in the failures

If Game Four of an Oakland/KC series would have made it Over instead of failing...we'd be looking at a profit of 16 units instead of a break even.

Still some time left. But, this no longer has a chance to be a big profit year should the Over sweep out..

Oh...there was a question in the thread about the logic. Kansas City is a great offensive park, one of the best in baseball. The Royals have had lousy pitching staffs in recent years. This year the bullpen was particularly bad earlier in the season. So, there is some weight-bearing logic for a strategy like this. It's just that the occasional failures are so bad that they can overpower the successes. Doesn't look like that happened in the prior five years of the study. Neutralized things this year...

drunkguy · 09-19-2006, 08:26 AM

here's a question...

how many series do you EXPECT to have at least one over?

if you are 50/50 each game, you expect 87.5% of 3 game series and 93.75% of 4 game series will have an over in one of the games.

blogguy says 92% of the series have had an over...that is pretty consistent with all the games being close to 50% over.

"due theory" does not work in real life, this looks like a very doubtful "trend" that has the illusion of being a high% winner when in reality it is very close to 50/50