Ballpark TOTALS

cash · 04-23-2006, 11:56 PM

Thought I'd create a thread for updating.

BALT: 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 22 22 27
BOS : 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14
NYY : 2 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 16 17 17 23 27
TB : 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 17
TOR : 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 16 17 17 18
.................................................. ....

CWS : 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 17 20
CLEV: 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 17 18 20
DET : 1 1 2 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 11 12 13 13 19 22
KC : 3 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 15 16 17 17 18 18 19 21
MIN : 1 6 6 6 7 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 16 22
.................................................. .......

LAA :1 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 19
OAK : 1 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 13 15 16 17 18
SEA : 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 14 15 16 18 18 18
TEX : 3 3 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 15 16 20 20
.................................................

ATL : 1 2 2 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 19
FLA : 3 4 5 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15
METS: 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 17
PHI : 2 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 17 18
WAS : 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 17
..................................................

CUBS: 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 15 18
CINC: 2 3 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 18 20 20 23
HOUS: 1 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 15 17 20 25
MILW: 2 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 17 20 26
PITT: 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 21
STL : 1 1 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 15
.................................................. .

ARZ : 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 15 16 18 19 19 24
COL :1 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 16 17 17 17 18
LAD : 2 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 15 16 17 19 19 19 21
SD : 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 13 14 14 16 16
SF : 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 16 18 20
...........................................

thru thur/25

blogguy · 04-25-2006, 08:24 PM

I'm going to bump this up just so people realize Cash is updating this every day. These numbers are fresh heading into Tuesday night action. Be sure to look for this thread during the week to get a sense of the best expectations in each ballpark.

blogguy · 04-27-2006, 05:42 PM

Since it was a light Thursday schedule...and because I wanted to remind eveyrone that cash is editing in updated numbers every day...I thought it might be fun to just cut and past today's parks into a small box here. I've put the median in parenthesis so you can easily see what the midpoint is for each stadium. If there has been an even number of games...then I put the parenthesis around the middle two numbers.

You can go from there is trying to determining what today's expectations are based on the offenses, pitchers, umpires, weather, etc...

Thanks again CASH for keeping these numbers updated for us!

PHI : 6 6 7 7 8 8 (9 11) 13 13 13 14 14 18

STL : 1 5 7 7 9 (9 10) 10 11 12 12 15

KC : 3 4 4 4 (6 7) 11 16 17 18

CLEV: 3 5 8 (14 14) 14 17 20

NYY : 6 7 8 (10 11) 12 16 17

TOR :4 7 9 9 10 (10) 12 13 15 17 17

cash · 04-28-2006, 03:43 PM

updated for thur.

cash · 05-03-2006, 12:59 PM

cash · 05-06-2006, 02:56 PM

acidburn · 05-08-2006, 09:15 AM

aaaaa

acidburn · 05-08-2006, 09:18 AM

[img]i/expressions/camera.gif[/img]
Hi

Juice · 05-08-2006, 03:31 PM

Whats up AcidBurn. Welcome.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

George D · 05-08-2006, 04:44 PM

Here were the totals yesterday with the games 10.5 and over if you gave away the 1.5 runs. Today there is only 1 game. Minn at Tx 10.5.

Teams/ Total/ Reg Price/ -1.5 price/ Difference won/Loss 
May 7, 06
Hou
Colo 11 -123 +160 +83 +1.60

Cinci
Dbacks 10.5 -120 +156 +76 -1.00

Balt
Boston 10.5 -117 +161 +78 +1.61

NYY 11 -125 +121 +46 +1.21
Tx

Total for Day +3.42
Games lost because of giving away 1.5= zero
1 run games in MLB 4-15

cash · 05-09-2006, 01:47 PM

like it george. thanx

keep 'em coming

George D · 05-09-2006, 05:06 PM

Teams/ Total/ Reg Price/ -1.5 price/ Difference won/Loss

May 8, 2006

Minn
Tx 10.5 -148 +131 +79 +1.31

Unit Total for Day +1.31
Unit Running Total for Since May 7 +4.73
Games lost because of giving away 1.5= Zero
Running total lost since May 7= Zero
1 run games in MLB-1-7

May 9, 2006
Oak
Toronto 10 +104 +192 +88

Minn
Tx 10.5 -178 +112 +90

blogguy · 05-09-2006, 05:18 PM

George, I greatly appreciate you posting these updates. Would you consider using a threshold of 9.5 at any of the parks with ballpark indices of 102 or higher like we were doing up in the MESS HALL over the weekend. I'm afraid limiting it to 10.5 or higher might actually hide some of the value that's still existing in these good offensive parks with just average pitchers on the mound.

Or...maybe we could separate them into the "top priority" hunks of games at 10.5 or higher...and the "tentative" hunks of games at 9.5 or 10 in the key parks.

From the earlier thread about ballparks:
HITTER'S PARKS
Colorado: 116
Texas: 106
Boston: 105
Philadelphia: 105
Toronto: 104
Arizona: 104
San Francisco: 104
Pittsburgh: 103
Chicago White Sox: 102

From Monday night...SF and Toronto wouldn't have quite qualified because the totals were well below the 9.5 threshold anyway. But, even then the home teams won by 2 and 4 runs (home team wasn't a favorite in SF though).

Based on what we saw this weekend...one run results were rare enough in these parks (especially if it's the favorite that HAS to win by one run) that it might be worth expanding the base a bit beyond the 10.5 threshold. In fact, the favorite only won by 1 run twice in the 24 games in the sample size regardless of what the totals were.

If that's too much to ask, no problem. I'll try to monitor it on the side. Thanks again for posting this data for everyone to read. It's greatly appreciated!

George D · 05-09-2006, 05:42 PM

Bloggie G,

I think using 10 or higher is easier for me because there are less games. These come in bunches. In the last 2 days, only 5 out of 22 games were 1 runners. That is unusually low. When it warms up however, I think the ball will carry more and you'll see even more games +10 or higher.

Toronto tonight -1.5 +192 at the outset looks attractive but the stiff going for Toronto has a ERA over 10.

George D · 05-10-2006, 02:59 PM

May 9, 2006
Teams Total, Reg Price, -1.5 price Diff, won/Loss
Oak
Toronto 10 , +104 , +192, +88 , -1.0 units

Minn
Tx 10.5, 178 , +112, +90, -1.0 units

Unit Total for Day -2.0 Unit Running Total for year +2.73
Games lost by giving away 1.5= zero - Running total for year, since May 7=Zero
1 run games in MLB- 4-15 Running total1 run all games Since May 7, 9-37

George D · 05-11-2006, 05:52 PM

I'm just going to update this thing once a week or so. Here are today's 10 and over games. I missed May 10 so here is yesterdays and todays. Notice, there have been NO games lost yet because of giving 1.5 runs on games totaling 10 and over. That will change of course but it is interesting so far. The underdog wins outright 40 something % of the time anyway.

May 10, 2006
Teams Total Reg Price -1.5 price Diff won/Loss 
Minn
Tx 11, -167, +114, 81,

Unit Total for Day - 1.0 Unit Running Total for year +1.73
Games lost by giving away 1.5= Zero Running total since May 7= Zero
1 run games in MLB, 2-15 1 run all games total since May 7, 11-52


Teams/ Total/ Reg Price/ -1.5 price/ Diff won-Loss 
May 11
NYM
Phil 10, -106, +183, +90,

Bos
NYY 10, -125, +156, +81,

cash · 05-16-2006, 03:25 PM

blogguy · 05-16-2006, 05:49 PM

Cash...I wanted to ask if that was for the full season...or there were some days left out. I was going to post the medians for everyone up in the MESS HALL. But...as I was doing it I noticed that the chart only had Tampa Bay for 15 home games instead of 17...and Cleveland for 12 home games instead of the 17 they've played.

That was two teams like that in the first eight I went through. Figured I should check with you before continuing. What's the range of dates for the ballpark data? I think this chart is a great help to everyone so I greatly appreciate you doing this for us...

cash · 05-17-2006, 02:01 AM

blog:

Sorry there was errors thoughout this data. I'm blaming it on the
B.C. bud [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

It should be fine now.