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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 03-31-2006, 07:56 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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There are so many games tonight....I figured I'd just start up a thread with some comments from the "on the fly" divisions we've done so far. Then everyone can add in what they like...

First...Indiana lost an Over last night in a fatigue spot...

Updating the fatigue numbers...
The past week or so through Wednesday night's action:
Tired teams: 11-18-1 ATS (62% going against)
Their games: 13-17 to the Under (57% Unders)

Tonight's fatigue spots:
PHOENIX is on the road against rested Toronto
LOS ANGELES LAKERS are on the road against rested Seattle

Neither of those is appealing as an Under in general because of the teams involved.

NEW JERSEY AT ATLANTA: We've got a team in New Jersey that's been playing great for awhile now...facing a team that covers when the opponent doesn't take them seriously...but doesn't otherwise. Will New Jersey take them seriously? The Nets are off Saturday...then host Miami on Sunday. They could blow this game off in favor of focusing on the Miami game. If they don't...they win by 10 or so I'd think.

PHOENIX AT TORONTO: Phoenix isn't playing defense on this road trip. Toronto is without Bosh. I don't have a feel for how Toronto's going to play without Bosh. They played a very good first half against Miami before fading. Maybe Toronto in the first half against tired Phoenix deserves consideration.

DALLAS AT ORLANDO: Orlando has been at its best against lesser teams. Dallas just lost two games in a row...and hasn't lost three in a row all season I believe. I see both teams trying, therefore no edge.

CHICAGO AT CHARLOTTE: We just posted the Southeast division on the fly stuff. Charlotte's bringing an effort every night...and playing a lot of Overs because they have no defense. Chicago looks to be trying to make the playoffs, though they choked the end of the Orlando game. If both teams are trying...and the home team controls tempo...that suggests Over to me.

PHILADELPHIA AT NEW YORK: What to you do when neither team is trying?

MILWAUKEE AT DETROIT: Milwaukee could coceivably tank because they've got a home game against Indiana tomorrow night. If not...the line is a bit high based on the way Detroit is playing when they're not breathing fire. Their ATS record is poor lately at the high prices.

MEMPHIS AT NEW ORLEANS: This is a first-home for the Hornets, which is a traditionally bad spot. Memphis is a pricey -5 o 5 1/2...which tells you that Vegas noticed New Orleans fell off the map a few weeks ago. The win in Golden State was because Golden State played poorly. Keep an eye on the second half Under. Mr. Airbets alerted us to why it was happening after we ran the scores up in the Mess Hall the other night. New Orleans has trouble getting to 40 or so in the second half much of the time. Memphis plays defense and slows things down. Note that New Orleans has to turn around and fly to Toronto tomoorow for a Sunday game. What a horrible schedule spot. With Memphis coming off back-to-back straight up losses (Seattle and New Jersey), this could be a game where they get down to business.

WASHINGTON AT HOUSTON: is being discussed in another thread. Washington may show up here because San Antonio is tomorrow night. If you go for the split...you show up for Houston.

MINNESOTA AT DENVER: Denver is in bounce back mode after a horrible game vs. Utah. Minnesota is playing out the string. You'd think Denver would have at least one good half if not two here. Denver in the first half might be worth a shot...then you double up in the second if it doesn't work out. You're not courting disaster if it's for tiny units.

UTAH AT LA CLIPPERS: Beware the tank job from Utah. They play at Portland tomorrow night. We saw them tank in Miami the night before Orlando on a prior road trip. Maybe they don't have enough margin for error to do that. But...if you they lose the first half...don't ask for a big second half from them.

SACRAMENTO AT GOLDEN STATE: Revenge spot for the Kings. But, Artest is still in a shooting slump. Neither team has impressed me this week...unless you consider making 12 treys against Portland impressive.

LA LAKERS AT SEATTLE: Lakers in a back-to-back. Seattle just beat San Antonio on this court Sunday night. Are they healthy?

I guess my favorite play would be Memphis coming off the two losses facing a New Orleans team in a horrible schedule spot.

So...we'll do it here...HEY NBA GUYS...WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MEMPHIS COMING OFF TWO LOSSES FACING A NEW ORLEANS TEAM IN A HORRIBLE SCHEDULE SPOT?!
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Old 03-31-2006, 08:39 PM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is offline
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Gasol has been playing well as of late for Memp. BG so he could play a deciding factor as well.

I did notice in the Lakers B2B that L. Odem played 43 minutes last. So without a rested Odem and no Mihm Sea. could pose a problem for the Lakers, No?
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Old 03-31-2006, 09:09 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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My concerns with Seattle would be:

*Status of Rashard Lewis
*Who's going to guard Kobe

If the Lakers blow the game off...it's Seattle easy. If they don't...Seattle can still get there. Maybe the Over is some insurance.

Do you think Seattle and Over is the way to go? Or just Seattle. I have a thing about looking for the Lakers to play Unders on the road because Jackson tends to trend that way. May not matter here. Lakers are too tired to influence tempo I imagine. Kobe may try to be superman, which drives an Over.

Maybe Seattle on the team total of about 95 or 96?

What do you think?
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Old 03-31-2006, 09:18 PM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is offline
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Line popped down to around pk BG so maybe Lakers again...

There are alot of "If's" on this game. As you stated who will guard Kobe, and he does seem to be prime for a "Go Off" game 45,50....

But I can't stop thinking about Odom going 43 minutes last night... And without Mihm?

Maybe the Over as you suggested.
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Old 03-31-2006, 09:18 PM
Mr Airbets Mr Airbets is offline
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blogguy,

memp might tank to secure the coveted #6 spot in the west!!! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] although it's tough to put money on the hornets with no brown(no way he's playing after the way he sprained that ankle), speedy is ? and not healthy, no mason, west ? and not healthy....

when two bad teams like phila and knicks meet, i like the worst team without pressure... phila is choking big time and if crawford runs loose, they can steal this gm for the home crowd...

suns tired?? i dont think so...these mofos can run track meet 3 days in a row and not feel it...only teams with big physical interior defense can slow down the suns...tor defense? fuggedaboutit [img]i/expressions/beer.gif[/img]

Minny has covered the first half(lead outright) prob last 13 of 15 gms even when they were big dogs 70% of the time...then they fade like the hornets in the 2nd half
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Old 03-31-2006, 09:59 PM
stevo stevo is offline
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Exposed on Detroit under 189.5, Kept all of Suns o216.5 , exposed on Ny over 207, I'm 5-6 on PHX and 3-4 on Bulls.

Lets hit something[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
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Old 03-31-2006, 10:04 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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You know Mr. Airbets...I was thinking that the other night when Memphis found a way to lose to Seattle at home.

But...prior to that they did beat the Clippers and Knicks on consecutive nights. If they lose tonight...I'm on that tank job bandwagon!

Regarding Minnesota...you're memory is off only a shade. It's 3-3 in first halves the last six games...with non-covers against Orlando, Toronto, and Miami. Otherwise, it's as you suggested...particularly on a long Western swing not too long ago when they led at the half all the time. Here though, they're catching a motivated team...a first place team playing at home immediately after one of their worst home games ever. Might be a different story...we'll see.

It's hard to say the Suns won't be tired. In their last back to back they allowed 132 points and 61% shooting to Milwaukee a few nights ago. This isn't just a back-to-back...but also the 4th game in five nights. They can win anyway...but it's not the best spot to expect a great game from them. The defense definitely just gave up in the second half of the Milwaukee game. We watched them give up at Utah in the second half of a game that wasn't a back to back.

I agree in principal with your comments on Philly/NY. I just hate investing in a horrible team even when they make sense. I used to regret it more often than not...so I stopped trying to tempt fate.

Good luck on all of your games!

BG...I finally decided on Seattle Over 106.5 for a team total. It feels like that will have a shot in most of the possible outcomes here...unless they just tank because they were on the road for a few days. Can't see that against the Lakers. They played a 120-113 game in LA not too long ago. Room to fall back to earth and still give 106.5 a shout.

I was hoping for a prop on Kobe's scoring...but didn't see one at Pinny.

Thanks to everyone for their comments tonight. Still a few hours for the late games to start...so there's more time for others to pipe in. I'll check back after I get the mail....lol

Good luck all...
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Old 03-31-2006, 10:05 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Good luck Stevo...looks like we posted at about the same time. Didn't see your listings...looks like you'll have plenty of entertainment tonight...
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Old 04-01-2006, 12:33 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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I don't follow it much but damn the scores were high last night. Are they not caring or were the match ups encouraging that??
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Old 04-01-2006, 01:05 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
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Yeah...it was a really high scoring night....

9 of the 12 games went Over
9 of the 12 games had faster than average tempos
16 of the 24 teams topped 100 points

I think a combination of factors were in play...

*Non-playoff teams have stopped playing defense
*Non-playoff teams are having more fun with tempo because it's not like every possession matters.
*Some playoff teams (Detroit) are coasting a bit, which for the defensive-minded ones means relaxing on defense
*Teams who feel like they need to win are attacking the basket on soft defenses (Chicago and Philly both won and covered...scoring 113 and 117 on bad defenses)
*It was a Friday night...with fresh legs for most teams becausae there were only two games on Thursday.
*Phoenix and Toronto were playing each other, which could make ANY night seem high scoring.
*Memphis has stopped playing defense because they might be tanking to make sure they stay in the 6th spot in the Western brackets to avoid the killer half of the draw. They're normally one team you can count on for defense.

Looks like a convergence of a lot of factors. Will be interesting to see if this holds up across the board for the last few weeks of the season. Fridays may be more likely just because it's a party night for all the guys who aren't playoff bound.

Anyone else have any ideas. It will be interesting to see if Sunday afternoon looks like this. There are a bunch of games matching teams with fresh legs during the day Sunday. But...these guys are more night owls than early birds...so we may not see the same craziness. NY plays Philly again. That game landed on 229 Friday. Memphis will have to figure out how they can lose at home to Atlanta. Good luck with that one Czar.
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Old 04-02-2006, 07:49 AM
Mr Airbets Mr Airbets is offline
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blog,

I still believe minny is 13-3 1st h last 16 gms.. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img] i remember being on that magic ride when they covered like 7 in a row...
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