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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 03-17-2011, 05:47 PM
humphrey_lad humphrey_lad is offline
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Default Probabilities offered versus projected

No one here actually talks about the mechanics of a wager the when and WHY that one bet differs from the next..

In horse racing there are dozens of logical approaches based upon setting up your own odds line and comparing it to what is being offered. No value NO WAGER simple as that

Last edited by humphrey_lad : 03-17-2011 at 05:56 PM.
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Old 03-17-2011, 06:46 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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My approach is based on making my own line and betting the difference between what's available and my line. I use a quant (largely power-rating-based) approach, though, so I can't point to specific things to back up the play (and if I do, well, beyond something like "I think that there's more variation in the outcome than the market expects" (after a reverse middle), I'm talking complete bullshit) without giving away the jewels (whether those jewels have value is another issue entirely!).
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Old 03-17-2011, 10:06 PM
humphrey_lad humphrey_lad is offline
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Three books completely changed my wagering philosophy

BLINK: information over load is a killer at the track. After three to four major factors the rest is mere noise

The Drunkard's Walk and The Black Swan both reaffirmed what I had guessed all along, that statistics are often full of holes never considering the unlikely as part of the evaluation......Correlation is not cause and effect....One loses the specific when evaluating the general etc etc...Then there are all the old school bull shit lies: class structure, the effect of furosemide (lasix for lasts six hours diuretic) and how little the trainer really counts........The conclusions draw are often painfully uninspired.

I have to laugh at the modern day grandstander rookies (you know the ones who KNOW the game from sitting all that way away from it NEVER learning the game from the backstretch where it is really coming down day to day....Reminds me of the story of the Blind Men and the Elephant)_ and ALL THAT TIME WASTED figuring who the contenders are...If you cannot do that in a few minutes and then WORK with the given odds in wager creation, you should just open your wallet and dump its contents on the ground now, ofr you will never be a long time ROI positive

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