ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Handicapping "Think Tank"
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 09:37 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 3,333
Default Testing the Pinnacle lean in soccer

Comparing Pinnacle odds to Betfair odds (net of the 5% Betfair commission). Basic idea is to use the ratio of implied probabilities to back on Betfair when the net Betfair odds are better than the Pinnacle odds.

To limit workload, I'm limiting this to EPL games. Starting bankroll for charting this strategy is $1000.

More or less current raw data:

Code:
            Pinnacle    Betfair (net)   Ratio
Man Utd     1.813 55.2  1.808
Man City    4.95  20.2  4.705
Draw        3.73  26.8  3.755 26.6      1.008   +0.8% => Back Draw for $21
                                                          (stated: 3.9)
Arsenal     1.253 79.8  1.247
Wolves      15.03  6.7  14.30
Draw        6.43  15.6  6.51  15.4      1.013   +1.3% => Back Draw for $20
                                                          (stated: 6.8)
Birmingham  2.55  39.2  2.501
Stoke       3.10  32.3  3.043
Draw        3.28  30.5  3.185

Blackburn   2.20  45.5  2.159
Newcastle   3.63  27.5  3.613
Draw        3.45  29.0  3.328

Blackpool   3.29  30.4  3.233
Villa       2.21  45.2  2.178
Draw        3.80  26.3  3.66

Liverpool   1.376 72.7  1.399 71.5      1.017   +1.7% => Back Liverpool for $122
Wigan       10.40  9.6  9.55                              (stated: 1.42)
Draw        5.09  19.6  4.80

West Brom   1.935 51.7  1.95  51.3      1.008   +0.8% => Back WBA for $41
West Ham    4.15  24.1  3.945                             (stated: 2.00)
Draw        3.81  26.2  3.708

Sunderland  2.66  37.6  2.615
Spurs       2.89  34.6  2.843
Draw        3.35  29.9  3.233
Play summary:

ManUtd/ManCity Draw: risk $21 at 3.90 gross
Arsenal/Wolves Draw: risk $20 at 6.80 gross
Liverpool win: risk $122 at 1.42 gross
WestBrom win: risk $41 at 2.00 gross

$204 total risk
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-12-2011, 07:26 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 3,333
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nfleqbc View Post
Play summary:

ManUtd/ManCity Draw: risk $21 at 3.90 gross
Arsenal/Wolves Draw: risk $20 at 6.80 gross
Liverpool win: risk $122 at 1.42 gross
WestBrom win: risk $41 at 2.00 gross

$204 total risk
0-4, -$204
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Pinnacle - No more overnight soccer? DrunkenGoon Mess Hall 2 08-09-2009 04:38 AM
Pinnacle Soccer DrunkenGoon Mess Hall 4 12-17-2006 11:02 PM
Pinnacle soccer DrunkenGoon Mess Hall 3 11-22-2004 02:57 PM
Can anyone explain this? Pinnacle, soccer issue finalcool Mess Hall 9 08-31-2003 06:47 PM
Soccer at Pinnacle Shawn Soccer and Tennis 0 12-11-2000 04:24 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:18 AM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6