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Developing my own line/system
Hey whats up guys, newbie here, been searching the net for an informative site and majorwager seemed cool.
I would like to learn more about developing my own lines for games, and learn more about developing my own system if possible. I have always been the type of player who goes more on what i think will happen. I compare numbers,trends,look over each team several times, but it all comes down to my own opinion. Not saying that its a bad thing, but i want to be on top of my game. I want to be able to run my own numbers and really know what the line should be.
I know there are plenty of books, but theres tons of scammers, and its hard to know which books would really help me out. If anyone can recommend specific titles, or could point me to some informational stuff online, it would be great. Thanks
Look at it from a different angle
Take a step back....instead of fighting the line makers..and coming up with what you believe is a true line.....recognize they are smart people who use a variety of measures/indicators to come up with the line...that being said...come up with your own indicators - team ranks...for example....and develop patterns....for example...i look at 6 data points....1. off. rushing rank2. off passing rank3. def. rushing rank 4. def. passing rank. 5. sagrin ranking and sagrin schedule strenght....comparing minn and detroit...minn is better than detroit on 5 of the 6 categories.....history has shown me that with a 10 pt opening line...and a 1/5 situation....minn should cover the line....so i bet minn....you must figure out indicators you want to use and then develop patterns to help you....use the line vice coming up with what is a true line.
I can say with near certainty you will not find a line more predictive then the closing Vegas line. If you are interested here is a article on my site. It explains how to develope your own power ratings and odds. I would follow thebuddah's advice.
Do you duck forward laying appeal at games or start text in forum of what they said was cold???
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