Baseball Totals Question

[Mort]

Do any of you have any stats when it comes to how often baseball totals hit the number? I would like to know if it would be better to bet over 9.5 at +120 or over 9 at +100, as an example.

[Ganchrow]

My half-point calculator performs these types of calculations.

[Mort]

Thanks, Ganchrow. I appreciate it.

[Mort]

Ganchrow, how are those push percentages figured out? Are they based on all games or are they based on the line, for example, if the line is over 9, then it hits the 9 10.20%?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Mort

Ganchrow, how are those push percentages figured out? Are they based on all games or are they based on the line, for example, if the line is over 9, then it hits the 9 10.20%?

They're based on totals within half a point of the line in question.

[Mort]

Thanks, Ganchrow.

I am curious as to how you came out with those percentages. The reason I ask is that I have been following totals lately and it seems I see a much higher percentage of the line at 7, 8 or 9 pushing than the percentages indicated on your table.

Of course, that is only based on what I have observed since making that post.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Mort

I am curious as to how you came out with those percentages. The reason I ask is that I have been following totals lately and it seems I see a much higher percentage of the line at 7, 8 or 9 pushing than the percentages indicated on your table.

Post your data and we'll see if it's off significantly.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

Post your data and we'll see if it's off significantly.

These are the 1/2 point-radius "push" totals for 2008:

Total	 Pushes	Games	Freq.	Std. Err.
7	9	113	7.96%	2.55%
8	29	459	6.32%	1.14%
9	81	783	10.34%	1.09%

These figures look to be in line with those of the calculator.

[Mort]

I followed 52 games and seven of those games pushed, which is 13.46%. These were twice on the seven and eight and once on the nine and I forget what the other two were.

Obviously, your data is more complete. Thus, I am more convinced that I just happen to hit a unique streak.

In your data what does Std. Err. represent?

[Ganchrow]

The Std. Err. refers to "standard error", which is simply the standard deviation of an estimated parameter and is related to the more colloquial term "margin of error".

Simplifying a bit, we can say that for large data sets, we're 95% confident that the "true" population mean should within 1.96 standard errors of the observed sample mean.

The standard error of the "win frequency" of a random binomial variable is given by sqrt(p*(1-p)/N), where p, is the observed win frequency, and the N the number of trials in the sample.

So in your case of 52 games with a "success" rate of 13.46%, we have a standard error of sqrt(13.46%*(1-13.46%)/52) ≈ 4.733%.

This means that, as a first order approximation, the true push rate for games fitting your criteria is (with 95% confidence) 13.46%±1.96*4.733%, or in other words, between between 4.18% and 22.74%.

(Note that in the interest of illustrating the concept I've simplified the issue.)

[kenober]

i think totals are just a prop bet, stay with sides, , why dont they just post how many balls and strikes there will be ? or errors, same thing